June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

 

Do they? Sure could've fooled me. It's the same studio, much of the same creative team, same tone, and the minions are still front and center even if they're not the leads per se. Minions was marketed as and essentially was Despicable Me 2.5 . I can't imagine anyone who didn't like that movie maintaining excitement for this.

 

Good thing you're not everybody

 

Count me in the group that dislikes Minions but can't wait to take my kiddos to see DM3....

[Jake Gittes]

28 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

That can't be right can it? Why did it hold so well despite losing lots of theatres?

 

12

(12)

Baywatch

Paramount Pictures

$1,458,000

-9%

480

$3,038

$57,365,889

32

 

I thought fudge at first but if you look at its daily grosses at BOM they only add up to 700k. Maybe Paramount itself doesn't know if they want to fudge it or not. 

Edited June 25, 2017 by Jake Gittes

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

But TF5 had a better start overseas than domestic. Saturday's hold was quite amazing, and it should make about $115-$125 million domestic. 

 

Isn't that a bit low after a 69 5-day? Thinking 130-140.

 

Quote

The Mummy still dying down, and shouldn't come close to $75 million.

 

June weekdays...Mummy actually added 5.4 on Mon-Thu. Comparable to 5.8 it added this weekend.

So the whole week Mon-Sun it added 11.2.

Right now the cume is 68.5, so is 6.5 away from 75, will get there easily even with big drops.

 

Edited June 25, 2017 by a2knet

[meriodejaneiro]

37 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Gitesh says that Wonder Woman is heading for 800M+ WW.Can this be?I think his prediction is too high.I say about 750M.Then again it has a lot of life still left both internationally(with Japan still to open) and -especially- Domestically.

It's already on its 650M worldwide. 

 

Not too much money to collect internationally, may be some 30-40M + Japan. And Japan, believe it or not, is not a "superhero country". Biggest superhero there i think it's The Avengers on 45M, all the rest is well under that, with AOU, IM3 and CW on around 25sM. And when it comes to DC movies, it's even lower: TDK 15M, TDKR 25M, BvS 16M, SS 15M, MoS 9M ... So it's safe so say WW won't make more than 20M (if it performs very well due the historic).

 

So it makes some 50-60M intl. (being very positive) to a total ~710M. It may need to add 90M dom to the actual 318M ... do you see WW doing 410M dom? And that's for the 800M sharp. Not to say about 800M+

 

For the 800M+ it may need to:

 

Pass 400M dom

+

Perform like no other DC movie in Japan has ever done

+

Keep good numbers internationally (where it's not having same holds as domestically).

 

I see it on the high 700M though, 770M

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Yea but DM2 did 360. So a drop? Sure. I agree. 330 sounds right.

 

If there was no Minions, then I would have been in that area too, albeit a bit lower $310M-$320M.

[WrathOfHan]

18 minutes ago, grim22 said:

I think we can all agree that DM3 is going to kill Cars next weekend. Monsters U fell 57% against DM2 after a better 2nd weekend hold, Cars 3 will likely see a similar drop if not higher.

It needs to kill Cars so I can see it without having to get a refund  

[AniNate]

DM2 still had better legs even without the Wednesday opening. I still think the franchise had peaked even if DM3 still makes Bank

[meriodejaneiro]

26 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Yup, Cars 3 is fucked no doubt.

Dont' worry. The ~3B it's gonna make in merchandise will be enough for Disney to wipe out the tears. 

Edited June 25, 2017 by meriodejaneiro

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Everyone who argues about the OW comparisons with DM2 and Minions forgets that DM2 opened on a Wednesday and burned 60m in demand off before STILL opening to 83m on its proper weekend. Minions' OW would have been a dip from DM2 anyway if it had opened in 3 days and not 5. And even if DM mirrors Shrek to a point the % drop off from DM2 to Minions was not that bad it was only off by 30m in gross - not even 10%. Yall are acting like Minions collapsed from DM2.

 

Tracking and presales point to a weekend of at least 100m (so maybe a 10% dip from Minions) which could conceivably lead to a 10% dip overall but I think it makes bank and increases from Minions in total due to an empty rest of summer for family films.

 

And yes this board is incredibly Anti-Illumination as evidenced by the Pets and Sing! responses last year.

 

Split SING's 270 and SLOP's 368 and you get 319. At 320 DM3 will be closer to SLOP than SING and I think that is very likely.

Can see 100 ow/3.25-3.3x/325-330 dom

Edited June 25, 2017 by a2knet

[Biggestgeekever]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Everyone who argues about the OW comparisons with DM2 and Minions forgets that DM2 opened on a Wednesday and burned 60m in demand off before STILL opening to 83m on its proper weekend. Minions' OW would have been a dip from DM2 anyway if it had opened in 3 days and not 5. And even if DM mirrors Shrek to a point the % drop off from DM2 to Minions was not that bad it was only off by 30m in gross - not even 10%. Yall are acting like Minions collapsed from DM2.

 

Tracking and presales point to a weekend of at least 100m (so maybe a 10% dip from Minions) which could conceivably lead to a 10% dip overall but I think it makes bank and increases from Minions in total due to an empty rest of summer for family films.

 

And yes this board is incredibly Anti-Illumination as evidenced by the Pets and Sing! responses last year.

I actually don't think this is true. Minions had a slightly higher 5 day total than DM2: $145 vs $143M. And DM2 opened on July 3rd, so it essentially had a holiday five day weekend. 

 

But the reason people like me are predicting DM3 to drop a lot is because Minions was just not well-liked. It had big second and third weekend drops for an animated film, and its legs after that were strong mainly because there was literally no other animated film of note released that summer. And Minions Flixster score is 49%, lower than Shrek 3, Pirates 4, or Transformers 4. After the way things have gone the last couple years, caution about the performance of DM3 should be more widespread, IMO.

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

It's nice to see TF5 drop from last entry in every country, I can't wait to see this coming, TF5 should have sink lower further....

 

I don't normally hate movie, but when I do, I hate transformers 4 and 5 and bashing it everywhere.

 

My new life motto: Cherish your life and skip TF5.....

 

Where do you think it will end up at this point WW, I'm thinking 630M WW...

[Arlborn]

I guess people were dismissing Transformers a bit too early over here. It's not a juggernaut anymore but it should make enough off this numbers for a sequel to make sense, no?

[meriodejaneiro]

20 minutes ago, Ohana said:

Japan will add just 10M? 

 

Japan, believe it or not, is not a "superhero country". Biggest superhero there i think it's The Avengers on 45M, all the rest is well under that, with AOU, IM3 and CW on around 25sM. And when it comes to DC movies, it's even lower: TDK 15M, TDKR 25M, BvS 16M, SS 15M, MoS 9M ... So it's safe so say WW won't make more than 20M (if it performs very well due the previous).

 

20 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

If Disney wants to continue making Cars movies, they should just hand it off to the studio that made Planes. Any hit to the box office that causes will be offset by the film costing a third as much to make.

 

It was Disney itself who produced them both (there were two Planes movies) under the brand of DisneyToon Studios. 

 

17 minutes ago, a2knet said:

SS added 15m so conservatively went with 10m.

WW appeared on BvS, which made 15M, so 10 can be a good number. 15 an extraordinary match, and more than that ... wonderfull.

[GiantCALBears]

 
Split SING's 270 and SLOP's 368 and you get 319. At 320 DM3 will be closer to SLOP than SING and I think that is very likely.
Can see 100 ow/3.25-3.3x/325-330 dom

That's basically my prediction too.

[grey ghost]

There was lots of buzz for Minions.

 

DM3 will drop but you can't compare the DM franchise to Cars.

 

There are way more people rooting against Cars. The little boy market is doing most of the heavy lifting for keeping the franchise afloat.

 

Minions and DM is another beast entirely.

[jj99]

Wouldn't it be something if Wondy finishes in 2nd place next WE.

[Johnny Tran]

Disney is shameless for that estimate. It's laughable. 

[GiantCALBears]

I guess people were dismissing Transformers a bit too early over here. It's not a juggernaut anymore but it should make enough off this numbers for a sequel to make sense, no?

Maybe a spin off but that's about it for now. Let's not pretend that domestic take is anything other than really bad. Might as well film it in China with an all Asian cast.

[GiantCALBears]

54 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

That can't be right can it? Why did it hold so well despite losing lots of theatres?

 

12

(12)

Baywatch

Paramount Pictures

$1,458,000

-9%

480

$3,038

$57,365,889

32

What other studio had a big release this weekend? Hmmmmmmm. (Hint: It's a trick question).

[Johnny Tran]

1 hour ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Gitesh says that Wonder Woman is heading for 800M+ WW.Can this be?I think his prediction is too high.I say about 750M.Then again it has a lot of life still left both internationally(with Japan still to open) and -especially- Domestically.

 

It needs less than $150M total from both here and overseas.  It'll probably get ~$70M more here.  Can you find another $80M overseas?  If you can then it looks good.