June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Tracking for the film says otherwise. The film was never ever tracking at POTC5 numbers so why would Paramount expect those numbers especially given the terrible reviews and not so great audience score? Like the film wasn't going to go up from tracking with the reviews that it got. So from a studio perspective they knew where their film was heading and the film hit those numbers. 

The movie's review embargo didn't end until the movie actually started. They probably assumed the audience would still show up despite the critical scorching they knew was coming given how much the other sequels made despite similar critical roastings. Unfortunately for them, that did not turn out to be the case.

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

Tracking for the film says otherwise. The film was never ever tracking at POTC5 numbers so why would Paramount expect those numbers especially given the terrible reviews and not so great audience score? Like the film wasn't going to go up from tracking with the reviews that it got. So from a studio perspective they knew where their film was heading and the film hit those numbers. 

 

You expect different number at different time.

 

When you greenlight the movie

Beginning of the year in your budgeted expected annual result

When marketing start and tracking start to get data (at different time before release)

 

When people talk about a movie expectation they often talk at greenlight time, when they decided to say yes to the project.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Telemachos said:

 

Technically didn't it come in slightly below their (conservative) predictions?

 

It can't be a huge surprise and they've got to be mollified by its overseas performance, but overall I doubt they're thrilled, exactly. 

It was tracking at $70M wasn't it? At least that's where I last saw it at. It made $69M for the 5-day. Technically you're right but when it comes to box office numbers and where actuals hit, you have to admit that it's pretty on the nose especially for a blockbuster film and one that's poorly received. 

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

It was tracking at $70M wasn't it? At least that's where I last saw it at. It made $69M for the 5-day. Technically you're right but when it comes to box office numbers and where actuals hit, you have to admit that it's pretty on the nose especially for a blockbuster film and one that's poorly received. 

 

Yes, but studios usually float conservative predictions they hope a movie can surpass so they can say it's doing better than expected. Coming in a hair under that isn't awesome for them. 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

The movie's review embargo didn't end until the movie actually started. They probably assumed the audience would still show up despite the critical scorching they knew was coming given how much the other sequels made despite similar critical roastings. Unfortunately for them, that did not turn out to be the case.

You're making assumptions now. You can't say the studio thought people were going to show up anyways when the studio itself had it tracking at that $70M number for the five day. The studio may have waited to release the reviews to ensure that they hit the $70M 5-day which is an assumption. 

 

All im saying about TF5 is given the horrendous reviews and poor audience score, the film held up throughout its weekend and pretty much hit the numbers it was tracking at. Whether those numbers are good or bad is another discussion but the film made what it was expected to. 

[WrathOfHan]

Trailer mix is out: http://digitalcinema.bydeluxe.com/site/dlxportal/docs/TrailMix_by_Deluxe-_WK_26_US_2.pdf

 

New trailers for Bad Moms, Good Time, The Greatest Showman, My Little Pony, and Valerian are coming.

Edited June 26, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Gustavo]

My little pony?

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

Yes, but studios usually float conservative predictions they hope a movie can surpass so they can say it's doing better than expected. Coming in a hair under that isn't awesome for them. 

Sure they hope it can surpass it but a studio also knows that the number can go the other way too. And I'm sure that's taken into account when you've got a film like TF5 that's not exactly good. 

[Premium George]

2 minutes ago, Gustavo said:

My little pony?

Starring Emily Blunt.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

You're making assumptions now. You can't say the studio thought people were going to show up anyways when the studio itself had it tracking at that $70M number for the five day. The studio may have waited to release the reviews to ensure that they hit the $70M 5-day which is an assumption. 

 

Studios usually try to go soft in the tracking they release (Disney was even saying Beauty and the Beast was on track for $140M a few days before opening when all other signs were pointing to $150M+ easily) so that way they can play up the "surprise" angle in the event the movie surpasses them.

[That One Girl]

Paramount isn't losing sleep over Transforners 5.  It's killing it overseas.  They're going to be fine.  They'll make a profit on this.

[Nova]

Just now, filmlover said:

Studios usually try to go soft in the tracking they release (Disney was even saying Beauty and the Beast was on track for $140M a few days before opening when all other signs were pointing to $150M+ easily) so that way they can play up the "surprise" angle in the event the movie surpasses them.

But if your movie is bad and you know its bad then why would you expect the movie to come in over your tracking numbers? 

 

Maybe this is why I'd never be a studio head lol 

[TwoMisfits]

If TF5 follows the TF3's opening, it's final BO should be between $150-$155M.  Pirates is looking at $170s, most likely.  That's not a lot of space between the two, except that Pirates was slightly better among critics and audience...  

 

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

Paramount isn't losing sleep over Transforners 5.  It's killing it overseas.  They're going to be fine.  They'll make a profit on this.

That's the thing it's not killing it OS. Paramount will be thinking a lot about TF future.

[GiantCALBears]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Paramount isn't losing sleep over Transforners 5.  It's killing it overseas.  They're going to be fine.  They'll make a profit on this.

More to a film's success than whether it made a net profit or not (which is very often already guided into earnings/projections). 

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Paramount isn't losing sleep over Transforners 5.  It's killing it overseas.  They're going to be fine.  They'll make a profit on this.

 

If I had a Transformer 7 with a 2019 release planned + spin off, that performance would make me loose sleep.

[Brainbug]

One interesting target for WW is DH2. That stands at 381M. If WW surpasses that it will be the 3rd biggest Warner Bros. movie ever only behind TDK and TDKR.

[That One Girl]

That's not the point.  The point is that it's easily gonna profit for Paramount.  Whether or not they continue the franchise is another story, but for this film, it seems like they should be having little worries.

[GiantCALBears]

45 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

That's not the point.  The point is that it's easily gonna profit for Paramount.  Whether or not they continue the franchise is another story, but for this film, it seems like they should be having little worries.

No that's exactly the point, most movies make a "profit" ... Woopdidoo. The future of the franchise is very much a question. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

 

If I had a Transformer 7 with a 2019 release planned + spin off, that performance would make me loose sleep.

 

It wouldn't make me lose sleep...it would make me get to work.  Finding out who came to this movie, and who didn't, and why...was it bad marketing, bad movie quality, fatigue with the story and franchise, etc.  Finding out how I could convince who didn't come to come again or to come for a 1st time to the next movie...either way, probably making sure that the spin-off is a total #1 type of movie that could grow my audience again and figuring out how and where I go with a 7th movie (or if I abandon that and see how the spin-off does to see if that becomes worth following or if it encourages another spin-off)...or if I'll need to give the franchise a break and work on other movies and concepts...not every franchise is the next James Bond...and even Bond has taken breaks of shorter and longer durations...