Wednesday Numbers: Baby Driver $5.7M, TF5 3,25M (-43%), Cars 3 2.8M, WW 2.77M

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think Baby Driver can stay flat from its true Wednesday (3.6M) today. Because it just released, tonight's previews will barely affect it.

 

It don't work that way.... it will drop at least 10% from true Wednesday. Unless there's a holiday involved Wednesday openers do not stay flat. 

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think Baby Driver can stay flat from its true Wednesday (3.6M) today. Because it just released, tonight's previews will barely affect it.

 

Its losing PLF screens already tonight, that will hit it for sure. Tomorrow it goes sharing on PLF.

[Eric Loves Rey]

@CJohn @That One Guy

 

Okay seriously, that's enough. Nobody likes giant bold, and nobody likes seeing the same joke repeated again and again. It's a bitch to scroll down on just my laptop. Can't imagine how it is on mobile. You two are the only people who still think it's funny. Stop for the benefit of everyone.

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

Its losing PLF screens already tonight, that will hit it for sure. Tomorrow it goes sharing on PLF.

 

I don't understand this ignoring of box office norms when we are rooting for a movie.... tomorrow the disappointment will be thick when they see BD drop under 3m...... 

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

It's baffling to me that Eclipse held the theater count record for so many years only  for DM3 to come and break it.I mean in this oast few years we had monster hits,with hype much bigger than these two (SW,Avengers,BaTB come to mind) and yet these are the top 2?I don't know how theaters decide but i would imagine the something like SW8 would have a wider release.

 

Anyway,WW run is just incredible.Crazy to think that a month ago i would laugh at you if you told me that it would even had 330M at this point,let alone challenge Guardians for the top spot.I don't think it will top Guardians but it's insane that we are even discussing the possibility.

 

[narniadis]

Cars3 actually had a decent hold all things considered. Shame it's gonna get creamed starting tonight. 

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

It's baffling to me that Eclipse held the theater count record for so many years only  for DM3 to come and break it.I mean in this oast few years we had monster hits,with hype much bigger than these two (SW,Avengers,BaTB come to mind) and yet these are the top 2?I don't know how theaters decide but i would imagine the something like SW8 would have a wider release.

 

Anyway,WW run is just incredible.Crazy to think that a month ago i would laugh at you if you told me that it would even had 330M at this point,let alone challenge Guardians for the top spot.I don't think it will top Guardians but it's insane that we are even discussing the possibility.

 

 

Eclipse was also the July 4th opener that year. This is the point where unlike December, theaters have some wiggle room to clear out the left overs from late spring / early summer without having 8-12 films to plan for. Therefore it opens the door for higher counts. 

[WrathOfHan]

BD:

 

3.6M Thursday (-36% from Wednesday with previews, flat from true Wednesday)

 

5.9M Friday (+65%)

7.7M Saturday (+30%)

7.3M Sunday (-5%)

20.9M 3 Day, 30.2M 5 day

 

WW:

 

2.5M Thursday (-10%)

 

4M Friday (+60%)

5.5M Saturday (+38%)

5.2M Sunday (-5%)

14.7M Weekend, 41% drop

 

Transformers:

 

2.7M Thursday (-15%)

 

4.1M Friday (+50%)

5.3M Saturday (+30%)

4.9M Sunday (-7%)

14.3M Weekend, 68% drop from 3 day/79% drop from 5 day

 

Cars:

 

2.6M Thursday (-10%)

 

3.5M Friday (+33%)

4.6M Saturday (+30%)

4.5M Sunday (-2%)

12.6M Weekend, 48% drop

[WrathOfHan]

17 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Its losing PLF screens already tonight, that will hit it for sure. Tomorrow it goes sharing on PLF.

Around Orlando tonight at every theater, DM3 is only getting its first showing in PLF then it switches back to BD or BD just keeps it alltogether.

 

Edit: Only one theater has DM3 in PLF the entire night.

Edited June 29, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Biggestgeekever]

12 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

It's baffling to me that Eclipse held the theater count record for so many years only  for DM3 to come and break it.I mean in this oast few years we had monster hits,with hype much bigger than these two (SW,Avengers,BaTB come to mind) and yet these are the top 2?I don't know how theaters decide but i would imagine the something like SW8 would have a wider release.

 

Anyway,WW run is just incredible.Crazy to think that a month ago i would laugh at you if you told me that it would even had 330M at this point,let alone challenge Guardians for the top spot.I don't think it will top Guardians but it's insane that we are even discussing the possibility.

 

@grim22 shared a link with me a couple months ago that I believe basically said that theater chains can no longer "collude" to share releases. That is, if there is a Regal and AMC on the same block, often the two companies will decide one will get a major release while the other does not. That's why GOTG 2 released in more theaters than Civil War or Age of Ultron, and now why DM3 has the widest release ever.

Edited June 29, 2017 by Biggestgeekever

[narniadis]

As a reminder the Saturday box office will be deflated due to Canada's holiday. While the last time this calendar configuration happened is really to far in the past, we shouldn't expect increases higher than maybe mid 20%s. 

 

@WrathOfHan those Friday increases are also really optimistic (minus Cars). 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

As a reminder the Saturday box office will be deflated due to Canada's holiday. While the last time this calendar configuration happened is really to far in the past, we shouldn't expect increases higher than maybe mid 20%s. 

 

@WrathOfHan those Friday increases are also really optimistic (minus Cars). 

For once I'm too high on WW  

[grim22]

19 minutes ago, narniadis said:

As a reminder the Saturday box office will be deflated due to Canada's holiday. While the last time this calendar configuration happened is really to far in the past, we shouldn't expect increases higher than maybe mid 20%s. 

 

@WrathOfHan those Friday increases are also really optimistic (minus Cars). 

 

Yup, but Sunday will probably stay flat or increase for most movies, and Tuesday will stay flat or increase from Monday. Should be a good 5 day stretch in the end.

 

16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

For once I'm too high on WW  

 

Or are you  . We will know when Sunday gets here.

[BadAtGender]

52 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Is it possible that we will see a movie opening in 5000 theaters?

 

50 minutes ago, a2knet said:

SW 8/9?

 

Unlikely for 8. There's too many movies in December to go that wide. SW7 is only the 47th widest opening, and in the holiday season, Rogue One, both Mockingjays, Catching Fire, and Fantastic Beasts all had wider openings. 

 

For 9, it's possible, if it keeps the Memorial Day release. If the films in between the May Opener and Memorial Day disappoint, there can be a lot of cruft to clear out.

 

With that noted, though, it's not likely we'd see a jump of 500 theaters regardless. If something breaks DM3's record, it'll be incremental. Possibly up to 4600, but probably not even that high. Just a few dozen more.

[Biggestgeekever]

A December release is almost guaranteed to never break the theater count record for a very simple reason: the vast majority of drive-in theaters are not open in the winter.  

Edited June 29, 2017 by Biggestgeekever

[DAJK]

So I watched it for the first time in years, and damn @Ethan Hunt is right, the first Transformers is fucking awesome! Up there with the best (or at least most entertaining) blockbusters of the last ten years.

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm not predicting it but it wouldn't surprise me if Baby Driver dropped 50% today.

Edited June 29, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[Barnack]

42 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

It's baffling to me that Eclipse held the theater count record for so many years only  for DM3 to come and break it.I mean in this oast few years we had monster hits,with hype much bigger than these two (SW,Avengers,BaTB come to mind) and yet these are the top 2?I don't know how theaters decide but i would imagine the something like SW8 would have a wider release.

 

The number of screen pretty much stagnated since 2009/2010

 

Screens:

2016			40,174
2015			40,006
2014			39,956
2013			40,024
2012			39,662
2011			39,580
2010			39,520

2009:  39,233

 

More importantly, the numbers of theater went down a bit after the financial crisis and had a mini peak in 2009

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188643/number-of-us-cinema-sites-since-1995/

 

in

2009: 5942 theater

2010: 5773 theater

2011: 5697 theater

2012: 5692 theater

2013: 5719 theater

...

And just went back to an close to 2009/2010 level (depending of were it was down from 2009 when Twilight was released)

2016: 5821

 

For a reference in 1999 there had 7477 theater or drive in, it is a type of record that could have been never been beating for a very long time with our tendency to have less but bigger theater.

 

Edited June 29, 2017 by Barnack

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

Usually with Wednesday openers there's more or less a consistent ratio between True Wednesday and the Friday gross based on the target audience. I have it as Wednesday being 86% of the Friday number (Nerve was 85%, This is the end was 81%). That means we're looking at a 4.2 mil Friday or so:

 

Friday 4.2 mil (+50% would mean 2.80 mil Thursday) 

Saturday 4.62 mil (+10%)

Sunday 4.16 mil (-10%)

OW: 12.98 mil 

5 day: 21.48 mil

 

Perhaps I'm pessimistic on some of these day-to-days, especially Sat and Sun, but considering that the last time the calendar shaped up this way had Bow Wow in an F&F film (2006), it's a good ballpark number to start 

 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

Edit: double post

I hope it does better though

Edited June 29, 2017 by The Fast and the Furiosa