STEPHEN KING'S IT WEEKEND THREAD | 117.15 Mill!....NO SPOILERS..NOT EVEN IN TAGS!

[FantasticBeasts]

9 minutes ago, Rman823 said:

IT truly felt like an event film something that can't be said for almost all other horror films.

fixed.

[Rman823]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

fixed.

There are some exceptions (The Exorcist, The Sixth Sense, etc.)  although none recently. 

[dxmatrixdt]

If It follows Paranormal Activity 3's 8 million previews and 52.5 weekend, it would make 88.58 million. 

[Ethan Hunt]

wow. 

 

figure I got to see what all the hype is about at some point this weekend

[Zakiyyah6]

Warning I'm going to be stanning hard for this movie.

[a2k]

PA3 (2011) did 8 previews and 52.5 ow. That gives IT 88.6 ow with 13.5 previews.

 

On the one hand PA3 was a three-quel and that has it's own front-loading.

On the other hand previews have gotten progressively bigger each year and PA3 was 6 years back which is a different era when it comes to Thursday previews.

 

Hurricane can be discounted in this comparison because PA3 itself feel a huge 47% on Sunday. So even with a bad Sunday drop IT should have a better hold.

 

So I don't see IT failing to beat 88.6 - the figure it would have with PA3's multiplier of 6.56x.

 

7-7.5x gives 95-101 which seems more reasonable than 110, 120 etc.

[Barnack]

56 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

But I thought R rated horror films didn't make money.

Is this even a thing people say ?

Look at those R-rated movie

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=conjuring.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=blumhouse2.htm

 

Specially for a franchise of the 80s ?

[Ethan Hunt]

what's the biggest opening for a horror movie prior to this?

[theultimatebiu]

4 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

what's the biggest opening for a horror movie prior to this?

PA3 I think with $50m

Edited September 8, 2017 by theultimatebiu

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

what's the biggest opening for a horror movie prior to this?

PA3 biggest ow (52.57) and previews (8) http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=paranormalactivity3.htm

Edited September 8, 2017 by a2knet

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

what's the biggest opening for a horror movie prior to this?

 Paranormal Activity 3 (2011) with 52,5M

[baumer]

26 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

It's not going to be that frontloaded this won't play like regular horror it's the dead pool of horror films it will do at least 90. The southern states won't make that big a difference in terms of gross maybe 4-5 million and while the NFL does start this isn't exactly a kid friendly matinee type picture

 

I also said it would do 90 million. But I don't see any way that it hits 100. And yes it will be front-loaded. I agree that it's going to do huge numbers obviously but there's definitely going to be a rush factor to this. And are you implying that the audience for the NFL and the audience for this movie or not going to overlap?

[Kvikk Lunsj]

nice preview number

[grey ghost]

This evil clown just cost me an assload of casino points. 

[Jonwo]

If IT does over $80m then October will be the only month that hasn't had a $60m+ OW 

[a2k]

Just now, grey ghost said:

This evil clown just cost me an assload of casino points. 

err...so back to your 55/175...was thinking 0%/0%?

 

 

[Rumpot]

2 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:

 

I also said it would do 90 million. But I don't see any way that it hits 100. And yes it will be front-loaded. I agree that it's going to do huge numbers obviously but there's definitely going to be a rush factor to this. And are you implying that the audience for the NFL and the audience for this movie or not going to overlap?

Why would some people watching a football game from 1pm to 4pm Sunday effect this movie much?  I think the group of people who watch 9 hours of football Sunday AND would watch the movie, but don't go Saturday instead is tiny. 

[RyneOh1040]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

If IT does over $80m then October will be the only month that hasn't had a $60m+ OW 

i think blade runner can do 60's.

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I still don't understand why all hurricane like to land on weekend.....they are fuking mess up the box office!

Hurricanes fuck people's lives.

[Barnack]

Last 2 year big live action thursday preview were, with their previews to OW ratio and what IT opening weekend would be if they follow the same:

 

Title	Preview to OW ratio	If IT follow the same multi
Pirates of the Caribbean: Deaden Tell No Tales	11.452	154.602
War for the Planet of the Apes	11.226	151.551
Star Trek Beyond	10.773	145.4355
Beauty and the Beast	10.721	144.7335
Deadpool	10.428	140.778
The Fate of the Furious	9.499	128.2365
Wonder Woman	9.386	126.711
Logan	9.307	125.6445
Dunkirk	9.184	123.984
Doctor Strange	9.049	122.1615
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	8.618	116.343
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them	8.503	114.7905
Fifty Shades Darker	8.148	109.998
X-Men: Apocalypse	8.021	108.2835
Spider-Man: Homecoming	7.599	102.5865
Captain America: Civil War	7.166	96.741
Suicide Squad	6.521	88.0335
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	5.993	80.9055
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	5.348	72.198
Average	8.786421053	118.6166842

 

 

BvS multiplier of 81m does seem like a reasonable worst case scenario floor and 50 shade darker 110m has a reasonable high end ceiling, a result around that average 90-95 to be expected.

Edited September 8, 2017 by Barnack