Weekend Actuals (Page 77): It 60.1M | American Assassin 14.8M | JLaw's Original Sin 7.5M

[Zakiyyah6]

Just now, the beast said:

exactly

What is wrong with Deadline? 

 

18.5

28.3+53%

16.1-43%

Total

 

62.9mil. That's my projection for now.

Edited September 16, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[the beast]

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

What is wrong with Deadline? 

I really don't know

They can't be that bad with these numbers, can they?

[La Binoche]

omfg mother! 

 

wtf was JLaw thinking? This is going to hurt her career. Mainstream audiences will NOT trust her anymore. What a clusterfuck of a movie. I almost kind of enjoyed it on some twisted level...like on a Wicker Man, Mommy Dearest level. 

 

Michelle Pfeiffer was MVP. If the movie was less despised she could have easily scored a nom and maybe even a win. 

[Zakiyyah6]

Just now, the beast said:

I really don't know

They can't be that bad with these numbers, can they?

They really are. Do they think it needed a 20mil Friday to get above 55mil? Their projection is baffling.

[the beast]

3 scenarios for IT weekend using DHD Friday Number ($18.5m):

 

worst case:

 

18.5m

25m (+35%)

13.8m (-45%)

 

57.3m (-53.6%)

 

realistic case:

 

18.5m

27.3m (+47.5%)

16.8m (-38.5%)

62.9m Weekend (-49%)

 

best case: 

18.5m

28.3m (+53%)

18.7m (-34%)

 

65.5m Weekend (-47%)

 

 

 

[KeepItU25071906]

18.5 mln Friday?

 

That's what I want!

 

 

[straggler]

5 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

omfg mother! 

 

wtf was JLaw thinking? This is going to hurt her career. Mainstream audiences will NOT trust her anymore. What a clusterfuck of a movie. I almost kind of enjoyed it on some twisted level...like on a Wicker Man, Mommy Dearest level. 

 

Michelle Pfeiffer was MVP. If the movie was less despised she could have easily scored a nom and maybe even a win. 

Jlaw was the MVP. Pfeiffer was good but it was Jlaw's show. I think she pulled off an Oscar caliber performance in as dark a movie as it is possible to make while playing completely against her supposed type. This type of role helps a career regardless of short term reactions. Maybe she envisions a career making serious, auteur films. If so good for her. 

[UrosepsisFace]

A vast majority of Americans should be able to understand what mother! is presenting within the first half hour or at least half way through. If you don't get it by then, you really can't enjoy the film in my opinion. I felt the movie wasn't subtle enough and Aronofsky was too straight-forward to make sure most of the public could understand quickly. I guess I was wrong?

[La Binoche]

2 minutes ago, straggler said:

Jlaw was the MVP. Pfeiffer was good but it was Jlaw's show. I think she pulled off an Oscar caliber performance in as dark a movie as it is possible to make while playing completely against her supposed type. This type of role helps a career regardless of short term reactions. Maybe she envisions a career making serious, auteur films. If so good for her. 

She was very good, and I say this as a hater. But I don't think this movie will do her any good. It won't get some kind of reevaluation years down the line. It's going to be despised and then forgotten. 

[dxmatrixdt]

26 minutes ago, grim22 said:

1.) It  (NL/WB), 4,148 theaters (+45) / $18.5M Fri. (-63%) / /3-day cume: $54M (-56%)/Total: $212.7M/Wk 2

2.) American Assassin (CBS/LG), 3,154 theaters / $5.6m Fri. (includes $915k previews) /3-day cume: $15.2M /Wk 1

3.) mother! (PAR), 2,368 theaters / $3.2m Fri. (includes $700k previews) /3-day cume: $8M /Wk 1

4.) Home Again (OR), 3,036 theaters (+96) / $1.67m Fri. (includes $300k previews) /3-day cume: $5.5M (-44%)/Total: $17.3M/Wk 2

5.). Hitman’s Bodyguard (LG), 3,272 theaters (-50) / $1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.7M (-22%)/Total: $70.5M /Wk 5

6.) Wind River (TWC), 2,619 theaters (-271) / $772K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.5M (-20%)/Total: $29.1M/Wk 7

7.). Annabelle: Creation (NL/WB), 2,117 theaters (-886) / $734K Fri.  /3-day cume: $2.3M (-43%)/Total: $99.6M/Wk 6

8.) Spider-Man: Homecoming (SONY/MARVEL), 1,436 theaters (-221)/ $487K Fri./3-day cume: $1.92M (-5%)/Total: $330.3M/Wk 10

9.). Leap! (TWC), 2,416 theaters (-275)/ $406K Fri.  /3-day cume: $1.9M (-22%)/Total: $18.5M/Wk 3

10.) Dunkirk (WB), 1,478 theaters (-632)/ $418K Fri.  /3-day cume: $1.45M (-53%)/Total: $185.3M/Wk 8

 

Just did some fair and trustworthy research.  I think Friday # extrapolation for the weekend with these numbers should be this.

 

1. It = 57.50

2. AA = 15.00

3. mother! = 7.00

4. Home Again = 5.25

5. Hitman = 3.60

6. Wind River = 2.50

7. Annabelle = 2.30

8. Leap! = 2.00

9. Spider-man = 1.92

10. Dunkirk - 1.45

 

[Krissykins]

Lionsgate are having an ok year with mid range hits aside from one big bomb: Power Rangers. 

[Deep Wang]

Only a 5% drop for Spider-Man?!

 

Unprecedented!

[Krissykins]

I think a 2.5x seems generous for mother!

[dxmatrixdt]

1 minute ago, Boner Omega said:

Only a 5% drop for Spider-Man?!

 

Unprecedented!

@iJackSparrow

[straggler]

27 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Is JL a huge star that people like though? 

 

After Joy, Passengers and now Mother I'm thinking no. 

Ah. The magical pixie dust theory of stardom again.

 

Joy did not get the reviews, suffered from serious DOR fatigue and an American Hustle inspired backlash and made $54 million and scored a best actress nomination. 

 

Passengers had bad reviews and made $300 WW.

 

So who exactly would have done better? The constant in all these films is that Jlaw gave a great performance. Some films work, some don't. Mother! is one of the craziest films a studio has ever made. It is called taking a risk, and regardless of how it works out her performance is so strong it pays off in the end. 

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

3 minutes ago, Boner Omega said:

Only a 5% drop for Spider-Man?!

 

Unprecedented!

 

2 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

@iJackSparrow

 

Should be the last good hold for Spider-Man.  Might drop 50%+ next weekend.  After 331 million, each million after is going to be a struggle. 

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

@iJackSparrow

HOLY SHIT. I doubt it will manage to keep those estimates though, but goddamn they are awesome. I will be very happy if it manages to keep my $1.7m prediction, over the moon for anything above that haha. 

[dxmatrixdt]

Just now, iJackSparrow said:

HOLY SHIT. I doubt it will manage to keep those estimates though, but goddamn they are awesome. I will be very happy if it manages to keep my $1.7m prediction, over the moon for anything above that haha. 

If the Friday # holds, then the weekend # should happen.  Deadline is using Suicide Squad weekend multiplier from exact weekend last year which is just under 4.  This movie could increase this weekend.  Slim chance, but it is possible.

[dxmatrixdt]

Looks like Spidey O/U GOTG will be where this lands closest to in the ennd.

 

$333,176,600

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, Matrix4You said:

 

 

Should be the last good hold for Spider-Man.  Might drop 50%+ next weekend.  After 331 million, each million after is going to be a struggle. 

I'm not sure. It's following a pattern similar to Guardians at the end of its run. If Homecoming is able to keep the low theater drops and something like $1.9m happens this weekend, then well, $336m might be even too low, we'd be talking about $336m+, maybe even $339m, going for the 2.9x multiplier. Just look how Spider-Man: Homecoming is behaving compared to Guardians (released almost one month after) and Ant-Man (almost same release dates) at the same periods of time:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2014a.htm

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=antman.htm

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=spiderman2017.htm