Weekend topic: BOM || Happy Death Day: $26.5M || Blade Runner: $15.1M || The Foreigner: $12.8M || IT: $6M || Annabelle: Creation at $300m WW

[Alli]

13 minutes ago, a2knet said:

AMERICAN MADE is on track for 50 dom

2017/10/13

6

$5,500,950

-35%

3,098

$1,776

$40,230,815

3

 

That's 3x multiplier off a 16.78 ow.

 

Will cross 100m OS with China and Japan for 150+ ww.

It will not be released in China

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

It is? Oh, well, I guess I expected 100K+ at least.

 

Oh, I don't know, ANYTHING ELSE BUT FUCKING EMOJI MOVIE. Double down on Cars 3? Hell, even.... uhh, I don't know, I guess Dunkirk? I mean, every child has to have History class at some point, might as well start with Tom Hardy awesomeness. Look, I admit that I haven't seen the movie, but from everything that I know and read about it (which includes spoilers of the plot itself), it's the furthest thing from artistically thoughtful that an animated movie can ever hope to be (even Nut Job 2 probably has more soul to it). I just hoped that kids would know better than that.

 

Speaking of Nut Job 2, why is it only opening in November here?

There wasn't anything else. Cars 3 was a big underperformer. Emoji didn't exactly set the country on fire on OW, but the lack of anything to families in the entire month of August and early September led to some crazy legs.

 

Because Outsider had no better place to put it and opening it on November 1 gives it an holiday which will be a big OD and an empty market until Coco. I would have gone with late August and force other weaker competition to move out, but I guess they thought something else.

[Mr Impossible]

52.7% drop for Blade Runner. That’s pretty standard for as Sci-fi films. Hopefully it legs it out to $100M DOM and $300M WW.

[MCKillswitch123]

16 minutes ago, CJohn said:

There wasn't anything else. Cars 3 was a big underperformer. Emoji didn't exactly set the country on fire on OW, but the lack of anything to families in the entire month of August and early September led to some crazy legs.

 

Because Outsider had no better place to put it and opening it on November 1 gives it an holiday which will be a big OD and an empty market until Coco. I would have gone with late August and force other weaker competition to move out, but I guess they thought something else.

....sigh, I see that. Well, I guess Sony was very lucky there. Or actually, they were very smart, by positioning the movie as the last big Summer kids film. I assume Leap!/Ballerina either came out during Spring or hasn't come out at all, correct?

 

I agree, I think that it would've done just fine in August too. But I guess that the OD money is tempting for them. It will be obliterated by Coco (.....or maybe not, actually), but good for them.

Edited October 16, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[Jake Gittes]

1	N	Happy Death Day	Uni.	$26,039,025	-	3,149	-	$8,269	$26,039,025	$4.8	1
2	1	Blade Runner 2049	WB	$15,492,244	-52.7%	4,058	-	$3,818	$60,970,631	$150	2
3	N	The Foreigner	STX	$13,113,024	-	2,515	-	$5,214	$13,113,024	$35	1
4	3	It	WB (NL)	$6,055,633	-39.3%	3,176	-429	$1,907	$314,935,154	$35	6
5	2	The Mountain Between Us	Fox	$5,750,951	-45.5%	3,259	+171	$1,765	$20,603,873	$35	2
6	6	American Made	Uni.	$5,500,950	-34.9%	3,098	+67	$1,776	$40,230,815	$50	3
7	5	Kingsman: The Golden Circle	Fox	$5,379,417	-38.0%	2,982	-506	$1,804	$89,716,457	$104	4
8	7	The LEGO Ninjago Movie	WB	$4,316,424	-38.4%	3,053	-558	$1,414	$51,579,113	-	4
9	4	My Little Pony: The Movie	LGF	$4,111,877	-53.7%	2,528	-	$1,627	$15,625,311	-	2
10	8	Victoria and Abdul	Focus	$3,006,155	-27.9%	900	+168	$3,340	$11,233,099	-	4
11	N	Marshall	ORF	$3,000,805	-	821	-	$3,655	$3,000,805	$12	1
12	9	Flatliners (2017)	Sony	$1,544,995	-61.1%	1,983	-569	$779	$15,672,966	$19	3
13	10	Battle of the Sexes	FoxS	$1,338,564	-47.8%	1,394	-428	$960	$10,352,762	-	4
14	N	Professor Marston & the Wonder Women	Annapurna	$736,883	-	1,229	-	$600	$736,883	-	1
15	11	American Assassin	LGF	$520,583	-62.5%	820	-836	$635	$35,603,092	$33	5
16	27	The Florida Project	A24	$368,149	+133.7%	33	+29	$11,156	$590,957	-	2
17	26	Loving Vincent	Good Deed	$331,602	+97.8%	55	+27	$6,029	$750,674	-	4
18	13	The Stray	Purd.	$286,494	-52.0%	430	-210	$666	$1,191,487	-	2
19	20	Spider-Man: Homecoming	Sony	$282,953	+3.8%	306	-20	$925	$333,528,381	$175	15
20	12	Til Death Do Us Part	NN	$282,408	-62.4%	310	-240	$911	$3,222,376	-	3
21	18	Despicable Me 3	Uni.	$244,730	-15.5%	266	-38	$920	$263,015,205	$80	16
22	21	The Emoji Movie	Sony	$181,355	-20.1%	220	-34	$824	$85,487,846	$50	12
23	14	Home Again	ORF	$164,526	-71.0%	361	-642	$456	$26,798,552	$12	6
24	15	A Question Of Faith	PFR	$153,930	-66.1%	228	-380	$675	$2,195,224	-	3
25	22	Dunkirk	WB	$152,419	-32.1%	268	-45	$569	$187,552,594	$100	13
26	N	American Satan	Sumerian	$135,378	-	55	-	$2,461	$135,378	-	1
27	16	mother!	Par.	$128,374	-66.9%	159	-322	$807	$17,634,778	$30	5
28	37	Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House	SPC	$117,572	+96.2%	89	+72	$1,321	$250,884	-	3
29	28	Annabelle: Creation	WB (NL)	$115,801	-21.6%	202	+14	$573	$101,933,294	$15	10
30	32	Lucky (2017)	Magn.	$114,838	+20.3%	60	+26	$1,914	$361,909	-	3
31	19	Stronger	RAtt.	$110,312	-60.3%	174	-161	$634	$4,034,669	-	4
32	24	Wind River	Wein.	$109,241	-47.0%	194	-162	$563	$33,456,946	$11	11
33	17	Judwaa 2	FIP	$102,256	-67.3%	106	-86	$965	$1,404,957	-	3
34	23	Leap!	Wein.	$100,093	-52.8%	185	-216	$541	$21,426,618	-	8
35	31	Cars 3	BV	$87,728	-21.3%	119	-12	$737	$152,743,252	-	18
36	25	The Hitman's Bodyguard	LG/S	$80,438	-52.2%	165	-149	$488	$75,184,323	$30	9
37	35	War for the Planet of the Apes	Fox	$65,589	-18.0%	100	-21	$656	$146,676,660	$150	14
38	N	Goodbye Christopher Robin	FoxS	$57,917	-	9	-	$6,435	$57,917	-	1
39	29	City of Rock	WGUSA	$48,176	-58.3%	22	-21	$2,190	$227,519	-	2
40	33	Wonder Woman	WB	$47,601	-45.1%	118	-37	$403	$412,486,266	$149	20

[a2k]

IT's %-difference compared to SMH (looking at gross-to-date after every weekend)

3-day    123.4  117.0  +5.47%

10-day  218.8  207.3  +5.55%

17-day  266.1  251.9  +5.64%

24-day  290.8  278.2  +4.53%

31-day  305.3  295.0  +3.49%

38-day  314.9  306.4  +2.77%

[That One Girl]

no Boss Baby or Hidden Figures #'s.  Good thing that Fox is still tracking Captain Underpants though

 

76

59

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Fox

$2,790

-77.7%

38

+13

$73

$73,903,006

$38

20

[That One Girl]

Exactly one person saw A Taxi Driver this weekend:

 

123

127

A Taxi Driver

WGUSA

$11

-79.2%

1

-6

$11

$1,527,829

-

10

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

no Boss Baby or Hidden Figures #'s.  Good thing that Fox is still tracking Captain Underpants though

 

76

59

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Fox

$2,790

-77.7%

38

+13

$73

$73,903,006

$38

20

This one made it to 3.1x multi. Low for a non-sequel animation.

 

Among animations that grossed more than 40m+ dom,

Smurfs3 did 3.38x, Lego Bat did 3.32x, Boss Baby did 3.48x, DM3 did around 3.6x, Cars3 did 2.84x and Emoji around 3.5x.

Edited October 16, 2017 by a2knet

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Exactly one person saw A Taxi Driver this weekend:

 

123

127

A Taxi Driver

WGUSA

$11

-79.2%

1

-6

$11

$1,527,829

-

10

Guessing he was a taxi driver.

[Rumpot]

Netflix plans to release 80 movies in 2018.

http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/netflix-80-films-release-2018-ted-sarandos-1202591430/

 

I find this company so arrogant...can't understand how this can possibly work.  They are lucky they have unlimited money to spend thanks to the stock market.

[Mojoguy]

Netflix plans to release 80 movies in 2018.

Holy shit.

[UNDERDOG]

8 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Netflix plans to release 80 movies in 2018.

http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/netflix-80-films-release-2018-ted-sarandos-1202591430/

 

I find this company so arrogant...can't understand how this can possibly work.  They are lucky they have unlimited money to spend thanks to the stock market.

 

And 78 of them wont be marketed at all.

Edited October 16, 2017 by UNDERDOG

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Netflix plans to release 80 movies in 2018.

http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/netflix-80-films-release-2018-ted-sarandos-1202591430/

 

I find this company so arrogant...can't understand how this can possibly work.  They are lucky they have unlimited money to spend thanks to the stock market.

I dont think they have unlimited cash flow. In fact its negative. They use debt to fuel growth. Netflix has almost $20B in debt. Companies like Amazon and Netflix are having this crazy evaluations(like infinity P/E) bcos they are expected to dominate their marketplace and grow like crazy for ever. Plus they have CEO's who are true visionaries. 

 

I thought I will buy Netflix shares on dips but its not dipping at all. 

 

But their strategy of going direct to stream is based on new kind of audience who dont go to multiplex. Currently large majority of people just dont go to theaters and this is their way of watching something new. Plus they supposedly offer great freedom to movie makers and so they should make great movies. We will see if this works or not. Since studios like disney are already pulling out of Netflix they are dependent on original content to attract audience. 

[Rumpot]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think they have unlimited cash flow. In fact its negative. They use debt to fuel growth. Netflix has almost $20B in debt. Companies like Amazon and Netflix are having this crazy evaluations(like infinity P/E) bcos they are expected to dominate their marketplace and grow like crazy for ever. Plus they have CEO's who are true visionaries. 

 

I thought I will buy Netflix shares on dips but its not dipping at all. 

 

But their strategy of going direct to stream is based on new kind of audience who dont go to multiplex. Currently large majority of people just dont go to theaters and this is their way of watching something new. Plus they supposedly offer great freedom to movie makers and so they should make great movies. We will see if this works or not. Since studios like disney are already pulling out of Netflix they are dependent on original content to attract audience. 

Yep, not unlimited cash flow - cash flow negative 2 to 2.5B this year.  From where I'm standing they are becoming more like a premium channel but are valued as a tech company with unlimited potential.  If they make good movies I'll be glad for it...but we'll see. I watched part of Death Note and it was really bad I thought.  I'm on the other side of your view - I think this is peak Netflix.  They are going to lose Disney in 2 years and immediately be pit against them and no way they can create content in the same league as Disney.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Rumpot said:

Yep, not unlimited cash flow - cash flow negative 2 to 2.5B this year.  From where I'm standing they are becoming more like a premium channel but are valued as a tech company with unlimited potential.  If they make good movies I'll be glad for it...but we'll see. I watched part of Death Note and it was really bad I thought.  I'm on the other side of your view - I think this is peak Netflix.  They are going to lose Disney in 2 years and immediately be pit against them and no way they can create content in the same league as Disney.

I dont see disney winning this at all. its not just about SW or Marvel movies. You need to innovate in this space and I would trust Netflix way more than Disney. 

 

If netflix were to lose, it would be to some other innovator who disrupts the industry. I dont see elephants like disney trying too hard. If they push too hard they will lose revenue on existing streams and so they always hedge in their approach. 

 

 

[Lake]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont see disney winning this at all. its not just about SW or Marvel movies. You need to innovate in this space and I would trust Netflix way more than Disney. 

 

If netflix were to lose, it would be to some other innovator who disrupts the industry. I dont see elephants like disney trying too hard. If they push too hard they will lose revenue on existing streams and so they always hedge in their approach. 

 

6

This.

 

Disney can barely keep their TV group afloat against competitors. With ABC / Freeform ratings and subs bombing in relation to competition (& now, layoffs are happening) - & their other cable channels' inability to land a hit. Even ABC's biggest headliner Shonda Rhimes was poached by Netflix.

[a2k]

I think Apes3 is done everywhere except Japan.

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$146,676,660	30.1%
+ Foreign:	$341,123,137	69.9%
= Worldwide:	$487,799,797

 

Apes2 did 12.7 in Japan so Apes3 may not do much more than 7-9 going by drops in markets other than China (where growth of the market and service fees gave it a small bump). In SK it dropped 50% from Apes2.

 

Will miss 500 by a small margin it seems, barring surprises.

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Yikes, who was predicting Apes to fall that hard from it's predecessor?

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Yikes, who was predicting Apes to fall that hard from it's predecessor?

even after the weak late tracking i didn't think it could fall below 550-600:  

175 dom + 125 china + 275 os-china = 575 ww, opposed to what it's gonna end with,

147 dom + 112 china + 237 os-china = 496 ww (assuming 8 from Japan)

Edited October 17, 2017 by a2knet