THE JUSTICE LEAGUE (and The Star and Wonder) WEEKEND THREAD | PREMIUM ACCOUNT SALE NOW LIVE | Weekend Actuals ~ JL 93.84M, W 27.54M, T:R 21.66M, DH2 14.43M, MOTOE 13.80M, TS 9.81M

[WrathOfHan]

Let's see how much that number changes. I'm by the theater now getting dinner before the movie and the parking lot isn't absurdly busy  

 

5 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Am I the only one who didn't love Three Billboards? I felt like it didn't quite know what it wanted to be. I hope it keeps doing well, though. 

You're one of two or three on here who have seen it  

[RichWS]

I guess it could have been worse, but on track for low-90's.

[LaughingEvans]

Over 90 locked? Let me get those £1 champagnes I got from poundland

[La Binoche]

5 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

I enjoyed it but it's no In Bruges.

Agreed.  Same director? 

[cookie]

11 minutes ago, Rth Ragnarok said:

32-33

Ain't going under 90, but ain't reaching 100 either

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Kalo said:

So if this opens to the projected $93m

 

With BvS legs it would make $185m...

 

 

OW too low and wrong time of year to miss 2x. Impossible. 2.3x if WOM is poor, otherwise 2.5x or so. 

[MCKillswitch123]

One thing's for sure after this weekend: 2017 is/was unpredictable and full of crazy box office stories.

 

- Wonder Woman, a superhero tentpole in June, following such masterpieces as Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice and Suicide Squad, opened to over 100M OW DOM.... and did 4x its opening legs-wise, unprecedented for a 100M+ opener, going all the way to becoming the highest grossing superhero origin story ever (DOM and WW).

 

- Get Out, a sub-4M budgeted horror movie with zero starpower whatsoever, had holiday family movie legs through the most crowded March of all time and grossed 175M DOM and 240M+ WW.

 

- Wolf Warrior 2, some movie that no one who doesn't have epicanthic fold has never heard of, goes on to gross 870M, with 850M of those in China alone, putting it close to TFA DOM as the biggest sole-territory performer of all time.

 

- It, an R-rated horror movie budgeted at 30M, released in early September, managed to make superhero tentpole numbers with a 123M OW and DOM total in the 320's, demolishing records in the horror genre left and right and making history.

 

- Transformers: The Last Knight imploded and crashed to around half of Age Of Extinction's prospects, both DOM and even OS/WW. I know some people will say that they totally saw that coming, but while I expected the movie to drop significantly DOM, I thought there was no way of it missing 800M WW. Hell, maybe 800M OS alone. Woof, I was wrong.

 

- And now, Justice League being, besides Logan, one of only two live-action superhero tentpoles to open less than 100M (a list that includes the 1st Wonder Woman solo movie, the 2nd Spider-Man reboot since 2007, the sequel to Guardians Of The fucking Galaxy and the threequel to Thor....... GOTG 2, Thor 3, Wonder Woman and another SM reboot all outopened Justice League.... and so did It, which cost 30M compared to JL's 300M and was a R-rated horror movie, not a family friendly superhero team up tentpole).

 

There's a bunch of other stories too, including a bunch of overperformances like Split, Annabelle 2, Baahubali 2, Baby Driver, Girls Trip, Dunkirk (to a degree) and even something more recent like Lady Bird or Wonder. Also, the MCU managing 3 movies over 300M and 800M WW in the same year, the complete implosion of animation after the Godsend year that was 2016 for the genre, the mega bombage of almost every comedy this year, BATB's batshit insane run, F8 managing 1B OS despite no Paul Walker tragedy effect and weaker reviews + DOM turns, and what will inevitably be an epic avalanche from The Last Jedi as well. But I'd say these pale in comparison to those up there.

Edited November 18, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[DAJK]

Wonder looking at our equivalent of maybe 10.5-11M Saturday here. Should also have a pretty good Sunday hold I'd say around 8M

[Darth Lehnsherr]

O/U Guardians of the Galaxy's Opening Weekend for Justice League is what's interesting to me now.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Darth Lehnsherr said:

O/U Guardians of the Galaxy's Opening Weekend for Justice League is what's interesting to me now.

O/U Logan DOM is the big question for me now. With a 90-91m OW I think it just misses it, with a 92-93m OW I think it just beats it. 

[BenedictL11]

Just now, DAJK said:

Wonder looking at our equivalent of maybe 10.5-11M Saturday here. Should also have a pretty good Sunday hold I'd say around 8M

Close to 27-28. Could've been a lot worse. Still happy with the number though.

[somebody85]

15 minutes ago, Rth Ragnarok said:

32-33

 

Someone predicted this earlier. Seems like it's headed for low to mid 90s.

[RichWS]

With 33 today, WB can give it a generous Sunday drop to get the estimates to 95. Baby steps to success.

[Shawn Robbins]

$32.5m Saturday could get it to around $94 million for the weekend. A bit better than it was looking after the massively front-loaded presales, and also assuming it can hold similar to Beasts last year (-30% from Sat to Sun).

[Blaze Heatnix]

BVS first Saturday had a brutal drop ( almost 38% ) from first Friday. SS first Saturday had a 40% drop from first Friday.

 

It seems JL is much less frontloaded than BVS and SS. They better hope this movie has better legs than BVS and SS. 

 

 

 

[Rebeccas]

Just now, RichWS said:

With 33 today, WB can give it a generous Sunday drop to get the estimates to 95. Baby steps to success.

not much of a milestone

[The Panda]

Wow, that numbers pretty low.  I was wondering about an underpeformance about a month ago and thought sub-300m was possible.  But now just getting over the 200m mark won't be guaranteed.

 

Thats a stark contrast from Wonder Woman's performance.  Part of this could be that Justice League trailers just didn't look appealing to the GA.  Part of it could be BvS and SS's reputations affecting it.  Part of it could be that WW attracted a different audience, uninterested in JL.  Part of it could be that people really do watch RT and use it as a deciding tool.  Part of it could be the heavier competition (Ragnorak going strong, Wonder having a strong opening).  Part of it could be TLJ eating up JL's hype.

 

Id reckon it's a mixture of some of all of the above.

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

The break even point for BvS fell somewhere in the range of 800m-925m per reports from Variety and Deadline.

 

I have no reason to believe (regardless of the spin) that the break even for JL would be lower than BvS.

I do no think Deadline ever said something like that, they probably quoted people saying something like that.

Deadline estimated a 100m profit to the studio's with a 55m in bonus to the above the line people from a 873m box office excluding merchandising sales, their break even point must have been considerably smaller than 800m, must have been smaller than 740 (without merchandising sales):

 

http://deadline.com/2017/03/batman-v-superman-box-office-profit-2016-1202049201/

 

And from the Studio point of view (RatPac and others investor type being still in the red when a studio turn in the black usually) merchandising revenues and so on, could have been has low has 500m for BvS if those reasonably small 250m budget and small 160m world release number are true. Those movie are domestic heavy with many revenue source from lunchbox to complex video game.

 

If we do not consider merchandising, Amazing Spider Man 2 could be one of the best example available to estimate break even point (Sony having sold them to Marvel)

 

Amazing Spider Man 2 break even point from the studio point of view was estimated to 616.7m (216.7 dbo/400 intl)

 

 

Amazing spider Man 2 estimated cost with that box office performance were expected to be by the studio accounting:

 

Direct net production cost: 260.95m

Domestic Release cost: 86.58m

Intl Release: 108.43m

World home ent release cost: 46.15m

World TV releasing: 1.42m

Overhead: 31.21m (just a rough 12% of the budget formula to spread the cost of running the studio on the movies)

Residual: 14.87m

Participation bonus/creative share: 39.5m

Lone Star (investor on the movie) share: 55.9m

 

Total: 645.01m

 

Under that performance scenario they estimated those sources of revenues:

 

domestic theater rental: 125.93m

Intl theater rental: 167.6m

Domestic Home Ent: 91.05m

Intl home ent: 54.29m

Domestic TV: 36.3m

International TV: 78.2m

Airlines: 3.43m

Marvel settlement deal: 21.58m  (Marvel during that time was giving up to 30m to Sony if they made Spider Man movies)

Lone Star investment in the movie: 66.63m

 

Total: 645.01m

 

So a movie with a total cost (from the studio point of view) or nearly 600m needed to make in theater only 293.53m, for a movie domestic heavy that would not have needed to do 600m, but for Spider man that was expected to be 616m.

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Rebeccas said:

not much of a milestone

Maybe they will Puerto Rico Australia it to 100m. 

[Kalo]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

OW too low and wrong time of year to miss 2x. Impossible. 2.3x if WOM is poor, otherwise 2.5x or so. 

New Moon says hi. I wouldn't me shoked at all if it had a 2x multiplier a film never opened to over150m and had a 1.99 multiplier.. until bvS came out.