Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[WrathOfHan]

I still have no clue what the fuck my theater was thinking giving The Greatest Showman two screens this weekend and the 2nd biggest auditorium. Most of the extra PP3 showings got cancelled for Jumanji Friday-Sunday, and they can't move it into a bigger auditorium because so many seats have already sold through Monday.

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

True, but the second weekend will tell a lot.  If it has a strong hold weekend-to-weekend (50%-ish drop) and a soft Saturday to Sunday drop, it'll point to really strong holiday legs.  

 

$110m second weekend is impossible due to two negative factors: $45m in Thursday previews on opening weekend and Christmas Eve on Sunday. Both of those will push the weekend below $100m. Probably will land somewhere in the 80's for second weekend, but we'll see how it goes.

 

The fireworks start on Monday, where it could reach $40m. Tuesday could be similar with discount prices and a lot of people out of work/school.

Edited December 21, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[Lordmandeep]

Be honest those stats seem random.

 

Is someone going around checking the schedules of tens of thousands of school boards around the county? 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

16 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

That is an interesting point, what is the demo breakdown for TLJ so far?

Star Wars primary audience has been the Male >25 quadrant since the dawn of time. However, TLJ has an audience breakdown of 37% under 25, compared to 33% for TFA. 

[a2k]

Gitesh thinking high-40s for Jumanji over 6-days. If it's backloaded compared to Sing/2015 due to more kids in school, I think 53-55 could be more like it.

 

 

[RichWS]

Deadline comments never fail to impress. Who ARE those people?

[CenterMeOnSam]

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Be honest those stats seem random.

 

Is someone going around checking the schedules of tens of thousands of school boards around the county? 

I mean... yes. Public school schedules are approved and submitted into the record of state governments education departments. It's a publicly funded institution and they have requirements on how many school days there are and when the breaks will be.

[RandomCat]

Just now, CenterMeOnSam said:

I mean... yes. Public school schedules are approved and submitted into the record of state governments education departments. It's a publicly funded institution and they have requirements on how many school days there are and when the breaks will be.

It's probably not that hard, and it sounds like maybe a few hours work for an intern.

[Cmasterclay]

Man the last shot of the Greatest Showman trailer just kills me. Hugh Jackman doing some seductive rubbing of his hand over his hat and then folding his hands together in a way I guess is supposed to be sensual. Just unreal. I love that this dumb circus movie is apparently shot like a sexy Britney Spears video from the 90s. 

[Lordmandeep]

10 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

I mean... yes. Public school schedules are approved and submitted into the record of state governments education departments. It's a publicly funded institution and they have requirements on how many school days there are and when the breaks will be.

 

 

but the numbers seem to change around randomly. 

[RichWS]

Deadline comment about Greatest Showman:

 

Leo • 7 hours ago

The Greatest showman really was a good movie, I would watch it again. Hugh, Zendaya, and Zac were amazing. All we really needed was them, and not the lies of P.T. Bernum.

[CenterMeOnSam]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

but the numbers seem to change around randomly. 

I don't know why that is. I assume it's just a mistake or a typo. Deadline sometimes leaves old information in new updates.

[Joel M]

We have to wait until 25th-26th to know like many in this thread already said but these weekdays don't look great. It needs a 3,3 multi to land exactly in the middle between TFA and RO, that would be a good target for TLJ, but I don't think it's catching Avatar.

[Eric S'ennui]

50 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

How the hell does The Greatest Showman keep dropping?  

People don't want to go where it's covered in all the colored lights and where the runaways are running the night.

[LinksterAC]

26 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

$110m second weekend is impossible due to two negative factors: $45m in Thursday previews on opening weekend and Christmas Eve on Sunday. Both of those will push the weekend below $100m. Probably will land somewhere in the 80's for second weekend, but we'll see how it goes.

 

The fireworks start on Monday, where it could reach $40m. Tuesday could be similar with discount prices and a lot of people out of work/school.

Who knows?  One one hand you have RO, that dropped 58%.  On the other hand you have TFA, that dropped 39% (!) off of a $250M weekend with $57M in preview.  

What you suggest is the RO path, which is certainly possible.  I'm just not sure why I'd pick that over stronger (or even weaker) legs at this point.

[Lordmandeep]

TFA had X-mas on Saturday and its Sunday was a Saturday as everyone got Monday 27th off as X-mas fell on a Saturday

 

Its not comparable at all. 

 

RO is the only comparison. 

[hw64]

4 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Who knows?  One one hand you have RO, that dropped 58%.  On the other hand you have TFA, that dropped 39% (!) off of a $250M weekend with $57M in preview.  

What you suggest is the RO path, which is certainly possible.  I'm just not sure why I'd pick that over stronger (or even weaker) legs at this point.

Don't ignore the calendar. While Rogue One and TLJ both have Christmas Eve falling on their second weekend, Rogue One also had Christmas Day on Sunday, and Christmas Day is a very good box office day. On top of that, in comparison to each film's opening weekend, Rogue One's weekday figures seem far more solid than TLJ's have been (even when taking into account the school holiday differences).

 

I think we're looking at 60% or above.

Edited December 21, 2017 by hw64

[LinksterAC]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

TFA had X-mas on Saturday and its Sunday was a Saturday as everyone got Monday 27th off as X-mas fell on a Saturday

 

Its not comparable at all. 

 

RO is the only comparison. 

Neither is a really great comparison.

[LinksterAC]

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Don't ignore the calendar. While Rogue One and TLJ both have Christmas Eve falling on their second weekend, Rogue One also had Christmas Day, a very good box office day. On top of that, in comparison to each film's opening weekend, Rogue One's weekday figures seem far more solid than TFA's (even when taking into account the school holiday differences).

 

I think we're looking at 60% or above.

It seems like you're suggesting we should ignore the calendar selectively.  The school holiday differences are arguably a significant factor.

I'm not saying TLJ will hold any better or worse than RO.  I'm just saying it's going to be hard to know until this weekend--at the earliest.

Edited December 21, 2017 by LinksterAC

[CenterMeOnSam]

I get the feeling that because of this weird holiday calendar we won't really know how TLJ is doing until the new year. 

 

More kids in school, the days Xmas Eve and Xmas fall on, etc

 

We can do our best to look at history but there doesn't seem to be a really good example to model off of.