4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[AndyK]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Yes, but as long as studios insist to include the Thursday preview numbers into Opening Friday, it will be done that way.

I don't see what relevance of how the studios do things if you have the daily numbers.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

How high of a sat bump are you giving it? Seems to me Xmas eve should be around 15-16m with this Friday number. That’s an awfully huge jump to get to 35+

 

I'm going with 29 Friday and maybe around 12% Saturday increase followed by 47% Sunday decrease. TFA and Rogue One did perform better than other films on Christmas Eve in 2015/2016, so possible this one outperforms the other films this year. So pretty much around 105% increase on Monday to reach $35m. Could easily go higher too of course.

[AndyChrono]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

in 2006, most movies had gigantic 120-160% CD bumps.

If we go by 2006 though, 7 of the Top 10 had X-mas days lower than Saturday. Of the remaining 3, 1 had a debut on X-mas so it didn't have a Saturday, another was a X-mas expansion, so only 1 film in the Top 10 actually had X-mas day bigger than Saturday (Pursuit of Happyness). Heck, 5 of the Top 10 actually had X-mas day smaller than that Friday, and they didn't even have big Friday bumps that year.

[baumer]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Zero percent chance Xmas will be upper 30s with a 28m Friday. You do know it’s dropping a solid 50% on Xmas eve right?  27-33 should be the range for Xmas based on this Friday.

Hahahahahahajahajahahaha

 

That's all

[Eastwood47]

Deadline composed of Star Wars fanboys. Inflated numbers for the weekend. The film is having a significant bigger drop. Too bad we can't have objective reporting. 

[JonathanLB]

Just now, Eastwood47 said:

Deadline composed of Star Wars fanboys. Inflated numbers for the weekend. The film is having a significant bigger drop. Too bad we can't have objective reporting. 

LOL, wow... so they're fudging the numbers temporarily to... what end, exactly? I mean the actuals will come out and that'll be that. It would be so idiotic if they just made up a bunch of crazy numbers, only to look like idiots later.

[Jonwo]

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

The Post  (FOX), 9 theaters / $230K Fri/3-day cume: $715k /PTA: $79K /4-day: $1M/ Wk 1

That seems very strong for The Post for its limited release. Only Lincoln did better in limited release and that was in 2 more venues,

Edited December 22, 2017 by Jonwo

[LinksterAC]

Just now, JonathanLB said:

LOL, wow... so they're fudging the numbers temporarily to... what end, exactly? I mean the actuals will come out and that'll be that. It would be so idiotic if they just made up a bunch of crazy numbers, only to look like idiots later.

I think (hope) he’s being sarcastic. 

[B D Joe]

Jumanjii: Welcome to the Jungle had a MCU villain.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Eastwood47 said:

Deadline composed of Star Wars fanboys. Inflated numbers for the weekend. The film is having a significant bigger drop. Too bad we can't have objective reporting. 

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

If we go by 2006 though, 7 of the Top 10 had X-mas days lower than Saturday. Of the remaining 3, 1 had a debut on X-mas so it didn't have a Saturday, another was a X-mas expansion, so only 1 film in the Top 10 actually had X-mas day bigger than Saturday (Pursuit of Happyness). Heck, 5 of the Top 10 actually had X-mas day smaller than that Friday, and they didn't even have big Friday bumps that year.

yeah, CD could be o/u 30 opposed to 35

28

29

14

30-32 (+115-130%)

Edited December 22, 2017 by a2knet

[Taruseth]

36 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

As with anything that involves people getting off their ass to go do something, I'm not going to put my neck out for predicting other people's behavior and act like something that hasn't happened yet couldn't go either way. That's what is going to get a lot of people here in trouble later today when Rth gives his actual number

 

That being said, I think sometimes -- this isn't meant in a mean way, it's just numbers, box office, nerdy stuff, this is fun! -- people get a little bit hung up on the math and not quite taking a step back to look at a bigger, common sense picture. People here seriously thought TLJ would make $60M this weekend...? I mean it made $22M Monday, so it would magically make less than 3x a Monday? You have to think what you're saying, and whether that makes logical sense.

 

Again with someone saying $20M next Wednesday, please think about what you're saying. On a day where everyone is off, the movie is going to make less than it did on its first Monday and barely more than it did any day this week, when most people were in school. If the school situation doesn't matter, please tell me and explain in clear English pretending I'm a 6-year-old who is incredibly inept why TFA made more money its first week when everyone was off, and why Rogue One made more money its second week than its first during the week? Surely you can't be telling me the school and work situation doesn't matter, but magically Rogue One increased for no understandable reason even though movies don't "just increase" unless they're Titanic (hehe). Math is only as useful as the person using the math. Ergo, if you don't understand the REASONS for why the math applies, you cannot apply it correctly.

 

Go A to B to C to D and show me what it looks like for the 3rd weekend to fall below the 2nd weekend this time. Here is how silly you have to make it:

 

Let's just "assume" Friday, for the sake of argument. $28M.

 

You cannot decrease on Saturday. You could get a small increase, to $32M. 

Now you can go $16M Sunday.

I don't know in what world Christmas Day is going to be less than Saturday, so let's be super pessimistic and say $32M for Christmas Day.

Let's be negative again and say $30M for the 26th.

Now $24M for Wednesday

$21M for Thursday.

A small increase on Friday to $26M.

 

That is the ONLY way you could fudge next Friday to below this one. It's nearly impossible and requires a serious fucking stretch of the imagination.

 

PS: EVEN THAT stretch doesn't put next Sunday below this Sunday, by the way. So it likely doesn't put next weekend below this one, either, as you'd be expecting another equally small (15%) Saturday increase with my math above. You almost cannot make it work, no matter how hard you try.

 

I just want to remind you that some people expected crazy numbers this week and while they were good, they weren't over the top crazy good and I think that those negative comments about it might hurt it's gross perspective.

And Rogue one jumped just 9% on it's third Friday.

I am not telling you the School and Work situation doesn't matter, I just think that it needs to be taken into consideration that the first weekdays have a higher demand than the third set, especially when in-between the second set of weekdays includes the 25th and 26th December.

Okay, I admit I thought NYE dropping like Xmas Eve, despite both Rogue One and The Force Awakens suggesting the drop should be less ( ) and NYD increasing less than Xmas Day leading to that big WoW drop for that day and the WOM being not that perfect with people saying how much they hated it will hurt the next Days too.

And during TFA second Week everyone was off to, yet it decreased from the first despite having just NYE in it and not Xmas Eve.

That was my idea for the next days (With the 50% Drop on New Years Eve and the really low increase the next day):

day    Daily            Cume            %                     Weekend        %

8	28.300.000	324.902.356	58,1681821843
9	34.500.000	359.402.356	21,9081272085
10	17.200.000	376.602.356	-50,1449275362	80.000.000	-63,6379476996
11	35.000.000	411.602.356	103,4883720930	115.000.000
12	35.000.000	446.602.356	0,0000000000	150.000.000
13	25.000.000	471.602.356	-28,5714285714
14	20.000.000	491.602.356	-20,0000000000
15	25.000.000	516.602.356	25,0000000000
16	30.000.000	546.602.356	20,0000000000
17	15.000.000	561.602.356	-50,0000000000	70.000.000	-12,5000000000
18	20.000.000	581.602.356	33,3333333333	90.000.000
19	10.000.000	591.602.356	-50,0000000000
20	8.000.000	599.602.356	-20,0000000000
21	7.000.000	606.602.356	-12,5000000000

 

 

I used Rouge Ones drops from the 26th to 27th to 28 th (29.8% and 20% drop)

 

But that was just a rough guess.

Edited December 22, 2017 by Taruseth

[CJohn]

My top 10 reveal continues with the 7th place

 

[MovieMan89]

13 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I'm going with 29 Friday and maybe around 12% Saturday increase followed by 47% Sunday decrease. TFA and Rogue One did perform better than other films on Christmas Eve in 2015/2016, so possible this one outperforms the other films this year. So pretty much around 105% increase on Monday to reach $35m. Could easily go higher too of course.

That’s more like a 115% jump to get to 35, but yeah I could see that happening if Friday is 29. Still don’t see high 30s in any case.

[JonathanLB]

Yes, with a big movie especially, demand IS burned off, so you would expect it to be much tougher to obtain the percent increases / decreases of other smaller films, all things considered. But then again, I thought that of TFA. I heard before it came out that Christmas multipliers blah blah etc. I knew nothing about that. I'll be honest I hadn't ever paid much attention to the box office of any movies outside of summer blockbusters, Avatar, and Titanic, and given that both Titanic and Avatar had crazy awesome, weird, unpredictable runs, that didn't teach me a lot. I didn't understand this whole 3.0x multiplier is almost a guarantee thing. It held just about as well for TFA as smaller films, because it's really just a "proportions" issue. How many people proportionately must run out to see a movie, versus how many can wait. 

 

All I can say is that I believe the next 11 days or whatever it is are going to be a really, really large grossing time for TLJ. It'll be catapulting up the charts on a daily basis and I don't think for a second that the muted weekdays this week mean anything except that people weren't off work yet. There is still a TON of demand. In fact several people at my dad's office told me they planned to see it, and my dad's secretary went Tuesday night -- it was sold out. They just had to go home. So even though maybe we see those grosses and aren't blown away, it's not because of the 7 p.m. shows. Those ones have been packed all week long. It's those noon and 2 p.m. shows and 10 p.m. shows that have been playing well below capacity all week. But for the ordinary family or people, this last week, they were working or in school, so they had only the 7 p.m. showings give or take an hour to make it work. That makes it tough for many people.

[AndyChrono]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

yeah, CD could be o/u 30 opposed to 35

28

27

13

30 (+130%)

All it basically takes is a larger than expected X-mas Eve drop. If the 28m Friday holds, you could get something like:

 

Fri: 28m

Sat: 33m (+17.8%)

Sun: 15m (-54.6%) / 76m 3-day

X-mas Mon: 31.5m (+110%) / 107.5m 4-day

[cannastop]

My little teenage brother wants to see Father Figures. Who would have guessed?

Edited December 22, 2017 by cannastop

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

That’s more like a 115% jump to get to 35, but yeah I could see that happening if Friday is 29. Still don’t see high 30s in any case.

 

FRI - 29

SAT - 32.48 (+12%)

SUN - 17.21 (-47%)

MON - 35 (+103%)

 

Not sure where you got 115% from what I said in the earlier post.

 

[JonathanLB]

I'm confused why it matters if there's a larger than expected Xmas Eve drop, say 55% instead of 48%? You guys act like it's a robot that can't perform anything but some pre-determined percentage. How does what it did on Xmas Eve really have much bearing at all on what it does Xmas Day? Missing the forest for the trees here, yet again. It didn't matter that the movie made $18M on Thursday or whatever, it was going to hit upper 20s Friday regardless. It could have made $25M on Thursday from people all being off a day earlier and that wouldn't have pushed Friday up to $40M or something. It doesn't work that way. If anything, more people NOT seeing it Xmas Eve could mean more people seeing it Xmas Day. 

 

A movie can do whatever, it's not bound to an exact percent drop or increase. Movies defy those all of the time, and we use them for comps later. Look at Disney, they under predicted TFA's Sunday by about $10 million. They're not idiots, but they were using good comps from the past and TFA didn't obey those rules. There was demand, almost equal to Saturday, and as a result it barely fell Sunday. What the movie does or doesn't do Xmas Eve affects just about nothing lol. It's a much bigger predictor what it does Friday and Saturday.

[Ezen Baklattan]

That’s an insane hold for Coco. Damn thing could stay in the top 5 for the holidays.