Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[Bonenash]

4 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

Looks like TLJ will not join the list of films having a $30m DOM day after passing $250m DOM. Rogue 1 did it last year.

 

At this point, TLJ probably doesn't reach $600m DOM.

 

?? u mad?

 

You don't know the BO don't you? TLJ will fly 600 m lol

 

Stop split on the TLJ BO i kinda feel it s the same bullshit all over again....

 

Nanana less than TFA nanann only 3m than RO....

 

TLJ is doing GOOD it s just TFA which is an anomaly ...... not the oposite.... Star wars or not....

 

the film will be number 1 DOM and WW with kind of 660 700 millions..... yeah i m gonna cry at Disney....

 

Sometimes this forum....

[Taruseth]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

From Rth: TLJ 28.2, Jumanji: 17, Pitch Perfect 3: 7.6, The Greatest Show: 5.3

Okay Number for TLJ, of course 28.2 in general is a really good number, but for a Star Wars Episode, that is 4 Mio $ lower than Rogue One's Boxing Day, okay that was observed as a holiday, because X-Mas Day was on a Sunday.

Just glad the movie increased a bit, because after the bad holds during the last week I feared it might drop.

 

Didn't expected Jumanji to decrease, but I think that happens when a movie plays basically over the high end of what was expected.

 

Pitch Perfect is saving it's face and The Greatest Showman is also doing okay (it decreased a bit, but considering the increase yesterday that number is good).

 

5 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

It’s “too late” for TLJ to hit 3x multiple?! Hahaha yeah if your math fucking sucks. It has plenty of chance for that still, actually.

Of course it still could, but there is the chance it misses it.

 

4 hours ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

Totally getting ahead of myself here, but I wouldn't be shocked if it got up to #8 or something. Despicable Me 3's number doesn't seem out of reach to me (domestically, anyway). If it can hold super duper well it might even pass Thor but the petty soul inside me would prefer it if that didn't happen .

Over Thor would be absolutely crazy, that would mean it would need amazing wednesday and thursday, an amazing second weekend and good holds after that. I think 310 Mio is a bit to much.

 

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

I simply don't see it for January 18.  Here are the releases.....

 

- Molly's Game (the current PTA in limited indicates zero chance of anything happening)

- The Post (the best chance to have a true break out with Spielberg and award's season

- Paddington 2 (second best chance due to Warner Bros. and reviews)

- 12 Strong (dead in the water)

- Proud Mary (third best chance for a break out, but that date has too many wide releases)

- The Commuter (Lol)

- Den of Thieves (Lol)

- Maze Runner: The Death Cure (might hit around $80m if reviews are good and people still remember these movies)

 

Okay, but just considering the fact, that both The Post and Paddington 2 might do 100 Mio $ isn't that different from the last years, is it?

 

4 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

I would still expect a 25-30% decline for TLJ Wednesday. Don’t get your hopes up - that would be a good number.

I agree with you.

I think round about 20 Mio is where this film is heading.

3 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

I’ve never seen discount Tuesday help really big movies, so that’s not why Tuesday is a great day. It’s the 26th. Wednesday will fall more because adults going to work in larger numbers not fewer discount tickets sold lol

I think that mainly is because of so many people seeing the movie no matter what day of the week, as Baumer wrote in his general guide, TFA first Weekdays show that, dropping on Tuesday and increasing on Wednesday, that is totally crazy.

And I also think that the 26th is helping a lot!

The only big movies that it really helped where I think Finding Dory and Beauty and the Beast, they increased 18% and 32%.

 

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

@EmpireCity said in another thread that "most" theaters didnt do Discount Tuesday yesterday. If so, 28,2 would be an even better number for TLJ.

 

It will be very interesting if it can catch Beauty and the Beast 17' till New Years Eve. I dont think so, it will be like 2015, when TFA barely failed to Top JW' 652M calendar gross. But TLJ shoud come close, as its drop next weekend will be very small.

 

Yeah the drop will be small, I hope for something like a 20% drop at max.

If TLJ behaves something like this:

20

18

20

22

16

it would have a 58 Mio weekend that would be 19 % Drop.

 

3 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Why would it decline on Boxing Day?  Who said it would decline?  

I feared it would, I just wasn't that certain it would increase.

 

1 hour ago, Christmas baumer said:

I guess I just don't understand why everyone is so surprised with Jumanji's performance.  I am not saying this because I think I'm a better predictor than any of you because I generally suck these days. But Jumanji had hit written all over it.  It had two of the biggest stars in North America appearing in a family film with a built in audience at Christmas time.  How was this not a recipe for success?  The trailers killed it every time they played in the summer and fall and there really wasn't that much in the way of family competition.  Sure, TLJ was supposed to create a vaccuum in which all other films got sucked into but there's always room for multiple films to do well at Christmas.  I didn't call 200+ million but I did see it doing north of 150.  Seemed pretty safe to me.    

Because I didn't like the trailer at all, just simply looks totally boring, but after the good reaction on RT etc. I am thinking about seeing it.

 

1 hour ago, Christmas baumer said:

And there's been plenty of people on here shouting to anyone that will listen that the 26th has always been a bigger movie going day than the 25th.  Go look at the last 10 years of Boxing Day's.  Most films in the top ten increase.  

Yep, atleast the total increases:

The Top 10 according to BOM:

2016: 25th: 75.8 Mio

         26th: 85.6 Mio (+12.9%)

 

2015: 25th: 95.8 Mio (Opening: 31 Mio Holdovers: 64.8 Mio)

         26th: 100.9! Mio (+5.3 %) Openend on 25th: 26.2 (-15.5%) Holdover: 74.7 (+15.3%) 

 

2014: 25th: 70.8 Mio (Opening: 35.5 Mio Holdovers: 35.3 Mio)

         26th: 67.7 Mio (-4.4%) Openend on 25th: 27.9 (-11.5%) Holdover: 39.8 (+12.7%)

 

So the Holdovers increase in total. New Opener normally drop.

Edited December 27, 2017 by Taruseth

[That One Girl]

The only pieces of marketing I've seen for the Insidious movie that comes out in a week:

 

-Me voluntarily watching the trailer when it was released

-Getting the trailer in front of Happy Death Day

-An ad on IMDb

-Maybe I saw a poster at my theater?

 

I can't remember the last time a release from the big six had this little hype or marketing surrounding it.  Jesus Christ.

[DeeCee]

There’s an Insidious movie?

 

Opening in a week?

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, DeeReyEgonnnnn said:

There’s an Insidious movie?

 

Opening in a week?

 

Universal doesn't want you to know either.

[Lordmandeep]

This is a pretty okay number imo.

 

Will be on par with Rogue One imo till the weekend.

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

The only pieces of marketing I've seen for the Insidious movie that comes out in a week:

 

-Me voluntarily watching the trailer when it was released

-Getting the trailer in front of Happy Death Day

-An ad on IMDb

-Maybe I saw a poster at my theater?

 

I can't remember the last time a release from the big six had this little hype or marketing surrounding it.  Jesus Christ.

Another year, another horror movie dumped on the first weekend in hopes of picking up a little cash before becoming instantly forgotten.

[IronJimbo]

 

$198m OW

$650-$720m DOM

$763-$845m Overseas

$1413-$1565m World Wide

46% Dom.

54% Overseas.

 

Guess I expected longer legs but smaller OW, thought TFA would be a massive damper on the OW.

 

To be honest I think it's going be something like 630m dom, 720 OS.. half of Avatar world wide it seems lol.

 

[George Parr]

24 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

No. It should be clear by now that the 2006 movies cant be used as a comparison for Last Jedi. My post was just an answer to another poster who used the 2006 calendar.

Actually, I think 2006 comparisons still work decently enough. You just need to look at the whole picture, not every tiny mark, as some details have changed since then. It's not like there is one clearly defined number when you look at the past. Generally there is a range. A range that doesn't always fit to 100% when a movie is much bigger than what was around back then.

 

The first Monday was right in line with what happened back then. Tuesday and Wednesday are a bit out of whack due to the nature of discount tuesday now existing. There is a modest Thursday increase, Friday and Saturday increases that were right in line with what happened back then, before the Sunday decrease was a lot better than what would have been normal, which is followed by the Monday increase being lower as well. A Tuesday increase wasn't the norm, but it definately occured, and is obviously more likely this year than it was in 2006. In broader terms, the movie is clearly up over the weekdays of the week before, which matches the precedent.

 

That it can't quite match the raises smaller movies get isn't unusual either. Rogue One dropped over 20% in its third weekend, while most movies around it were increasing slightly. And TFA dropped ~20% in its second set of weekdays while almost everything around it that wasn't a new release increased or stayed mostly flat. It also dropped worse on the 2nd and 3rd weekend than anythin around it. While large numbers don't break the trend entirely, they often can't follow the more extreme movements of small or mid-sized movies.

 

TLJ will probably see some decrease in its third weekend while much around it might increase, but the effect of the schedule is still in play. It just can't quite counter the natural progression when it comes to such a size. It couldn't even do that for TFA, which exceeded expectations for most of the holidays.

[That One Girl]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Another year, another horror movie dumped on the first weekend in hopes of picking up a little cash before becoming instantly forgotten.

 

Even by shitty horror movie in January standards this is awful.  I remember The Bye Bye Man (of all fucking movies) and even the 5th Underworld movie having more buzz.

[filmlover]

Pitch Perfect 3 (even if it's still looking at an ugly drop from the previous movie overall) and The Greatest Showman have rebounded nicely from their pre-Christmas numbers. Just goes to show you can't completely write a movie off after just a few days at this time of year.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Even by shitty horror movie in January standards this is awful.  I remember The Bye Bye Man (of all fucking movies) and even the 5th Underworld movie having more buzz.

I got the trailer before The Shape of Water a few weeks ago. It was funny seeing it before a crowd with a high number of seniors.

[4815162342]

4 hours ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

 

[baumer]

Insidious will more than likely open to about 20-22 million and finish with 45-50 million.  It's a good brand and people seem to like them enough to spend money on them.

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Insidious will more than likely open to about 20-22 million and finish with 45-50 million.  It's a good brand and people seem to like them enough to spend money on them.

 

In an alternate universe where Universal actually marketed the movie, then yes, I could see that.

[filmlover]

January looks even bleaker than it usually does this year. I won't be surprised if nothing makes over $60M.

[IronJimbo]

The real important question about TLJ.

 

Will TLJ ww gross be < or > 0.5A

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

January looks even bleaker than it usually does this year. I won't be surprised if nothing makes over $60M.

 

Paddington 2 and The Post tho

[filmlover]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Paddington 2 and The Post tho

The Post is technically a 2017 release (and so is Paddington 2, to an extent). 

[FantasticBeasts]

39 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

$198m OW

$650-$720m DOM

$763-$845m Overseas

$1413-$1565m World Wide

46% Dom.

54% Overseas.

 

Guess I expected longer legs but smaller OW, thought TFA would be a massive damper on the OW.

 

To be honest I think it's going be something like 630m dom, 720 OS.. half of Avatar world wide it seems lol.

 

Well you know a Star Wars film is underperforming when it is doing worse than the lower range of IronJimbo.