New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

I think what he is talking about doesn't change even if the movie is good. The fact that it cost a lot, and antecipation levels seem low even in US which is the main market for Star Wars, and the fact that it's coming only 6 months after another Star Wars movie with apparently mixed WOM, make it look like it has big chances of not being profitable.

This is exactly it...Solo is probably a $300M+ production budget movie (I almost don't want to think "how high" it really could be if they did actually make almost 2 full movies https://screenrant.com/han-solo-ron-howard-reshoots-budget/)...so like Valerian before it, it has a large hurdle to cross in box office just to get to something respectable for its budget.  

 

That's a flop threat just from the get go.  But, I get why Disney also is making the decision it is to spend in order to try to turn the movie around.  This movie isn't just about "this" movie...it's about the whole franchise, so they are probably willing to take a potential "money losing" hit on this as long as they don't also take a Star Wars fandom negative hit, too...

 

It's like they are mitigating losses, not probably trying to actually make bundles on this movie...I mean, when $200M is sunk the 1st time, what's another $200M more if you can end up getting it to break even or only losing $50-$100M theatrically (vs the whole $200M if you'd have just canned it)...and then having the back end option for sequels and decent merchandise sales (vs the hit you'd have probably taken there, too)...

[Brainbug]

I think Disney is beeing conservative with the Monday estimate for TLJ because they estimated its Christmas Day take at 32M and it came in at 27,7M.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I think Disney is beeing conservative with the Monday estimate for TLJ because they estimated its Christmas Day take at 32M and it came in at 27,7M.

True...or the areas still out of school this week are ones going to Jumanji and not ones going to Star Wars (so the evening shows will go almost all one way)...do we have a breakdown of where the 2 movies are doing better or worse (or are they performing almost the same everywhere?)...

 

EDIT: Although looking at MT.com through the morning, TLJ is stretching its gap advantage, so I think, without a big change later today, it should hold on for the 4 day...

Edited January 1, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I think Disney is beeing conservative with the Monday estimate for TLJ because they estimated its Christmas Day take at 32M and it came in at 27,7M.

 

Yep, I don’t blame them for playing more safe this time. 

[a2k]

Right now TLJ's 4-day is 65.56 vs RO's 65.52. RO added 91.3 more after NY Monday. TLJ needs 119.75 for 650. Even with delayed holidays adding nearly 30 more than RO in the rest of the run looks like a long shot.

[MattW]

Biggest december ever with current estimates: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/monthly/?view=calendargross&p=.htm

 

Year	Total Gross	Change	Movies	Avg.	#1 Movie	Gross	% of Total
2017	$1,320.7	+10.9%	206	$6.4	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	$517.1	39.2%
2016	$1,190.8	-8.8%	229	$5.2	Rogue One	$408.2	34.3%
2015	$1,305.0	+44.3%	219	$6.0	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$652.0	50.0%
2014	$904.4	-13.8%	203	$4.5	The Hobbit 3	$189.5	21.0%
2013	$1,048.8	+9.2%	199	$5.3	The Hobbit 2	$201.5	19.2%
2012	$960.1	+9.4%	203	$4.7	The Hobbit	$228.5	23.8%
2011	$877.4	-0.6%	197	$4.5	Sherlock Holmes 2	$124.1	14.1%
2010	$882.3	-17.3%	188	$4.7	Tron Legacy	$117.5	13.3%
2009	$1,066.7	+33.9%	202	$5.3	Avatar	$283.6	26.6%

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Right now TLJ's 4-day is 65.56 vs RO's 65.52. RO added 91.3 more after NY Monday. TLJ needs 119.75 for 650. Even with delayed holidays adding nearly 30 more than RO in the rest of the run looks like a long shot.

If TLJ adds $100M ($20M more for holidays, but only $80M more b/c it's not legging as well and might be looking at faster drops of showings and screens that RO did), it gets to $631M or so...off the OW, that would be legs of 2.87x or so...or only about $170M less than Deadline's 2nd weekend estimates for its total run:)...

 

 

[NoLegMan]

28 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

I think what he is talking about doesn't change even if the movie is good. The fact that it cost a lot, and antecipation levels seem low even in US which is the main market for Star Wars, and the fact that it's coming only 6 months after another Star Wars movie with apparently mixed WOM, make it look like it has big chances of not being profitable.

I see what you are saying, I'm just not sure how we even know what the WOM is yet. We haven't seen a trailer or anything. 6 Months is long time. Let's talk about WOM when we see a trailer because marketing can have major impacts on public perception. Obviously people will disagree with what I'm saying. But I'd rather be cautious.

[MovieMan89]

If Monday really is that low - which I do think is a big if - I'm calling it now that TLJ is going to just miss The Avengers and finish with something like 620. I already had it pegged around 635, but that was assuming it would hit at least 16m today. That number is just fucking abysmal and it's going to collapse after the holidays if that's how it's already looking. 

Edited January 1, 2018 by MovieMan89

[bamajagala]

20 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

True...or the areas still out of school this week are ones going to Jumanji and not ones going to Star Wars (so the evening shows will go almost all one way)...do we have a breakdown of where the 2 movies are doing better or worse (or are they performing almost the same everywhere?)...

 

EDIT: Although looking at MT.com through the morning, TLJ is stretching its gap advantage, so I think, without a big change later today, it should hold on for the 4 day...

It should win the 4 day based on mt and what I'm seeing

[MovieMan89]

Jumanji winning the 4 day would just be crazy. It was at half of TLJ's gross last weekend. 

[redfirebird2008]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If Monday really is that low - which I do think is a big if - I'm calling it now that TLJ is going to just miss The Avengers and finish with something like 620. I already had it pegged around 635, but that was assuming it would hit at least 16m today. That number is just fucking abysmal and it's going to collapse after the holidays if that's how it's already looking. 

 

I think it’s just what @Brainbug mentioned. They overshot by $5m last Monday and they are making sure it won’t happen again. I bet the actual number will be over $15m. 

[hw64]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I think it’s just what @Brainbug mentioned. They overshot by $5m last Monday and they are making sure it won’t happen again. I bet the actual number will be over $15m. 

Then again, people said similar things about Deadline's Friday.

Edited January 1, 2018 by hw64

[bamajagala]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Jumanji winning the 4 day would just be crazy. It was at half of TLJ's gross last weekend. 

I mean't TLJ, but it's consistently come under estimates, so who knows. But if I was a betting man right now I'd go with TLJ

[Noctis]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I think it’s just what @Brainbug mentioned. They overshot by $5m last Monday and they are making sure it won’t happen again. I bet the actual number will be over $15m. 

Probably $14.5m

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Jumanji winning the 4 day would just be crazy. It was at half of TLJ's gross last weekend. 

J's trending compared to Sing is better too so far

 

Sing

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Dec 23–25	2	$35,258,145	-	4,022	-	$8,766	$55,870,785	1

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Dec 23–26	2	$54,931,630	-	4,022	-	$13,658	$75,544,270	1
Dec 30–Jan 1	2	$42,896,330	+21.7%	4,029	+7	$10,647	$166,497,820	2
Dec 30–Jan 2	2	$57,290,420	+62.5%	4,029	+7	$14,220	$180,891,910	2

 

Jumanji

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Dec 22–24	2	$36,400,000	-	3,765	-	$9,668	$53,005,967	1

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Dec 22–25	2	$55,400,000	-	3,765	-	$14,714	$72,005,967	1
Dec 29–31	2	$50,355,000	+38.3%	3,765	-	$13,375	$169,610,967	2
Dec 29–Jan 1	1	$66,500,000	+82.7%	3,765	-	$17,663	$185,755,967	2

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

J's trending compared to Sing is better too so far

 

Sing

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Dec 23–25	2	$35,258,145	-	4,022	-	$8,766	$55,870,785	1

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Dec 23–26	2	$54,931,630	-	4,022	-	$13,658	$75,544,270	1
Dec 30–Jan 1	2	$42,896,330	+21.7%	4,029	+7	$10,647	$166,497,820	2
Dec 30–Jan 2	2	$57,290,420	+62.5%	4,029	+7	$14,220	$180,891,910	2

 

Jumanji

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Dec 22–24	2	$36,400,000	-	3,765	-	$9,668	$53,005,967	1

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Dec 22–25	2	$55,400,000	-	3,765	-	$14,714	$72,005,967	1
Dec 29–31	2	$50,355,000	+38.3%	3,765	-	$13,375	$169,610,967	2
Dec 29–Jan 1	1	$66,500,000	+82.7%	3,765	-	$17,663	$185,755,967	2

It's over 9m ahead of Sing's 4 day this weekend, with a total running 5m ahead now. 300 seems very likely. 

[MovieMan89]

13 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I think it’s just what @Brainbug mentioned. They overshot by $5m last Monday and they are making sure it won’t happen again. I bet the actual number will be over $15m. 

You would think, but just saying if that number is close to accurate then it's legs from here out are fucked.  

 

It might be more accurate than we think if you look at what's happened since last Monday. Decrease every day except for two, which were +1% and +4% respectively. Odds of a big increase seem slim looking at that pattern. I'd say something like +10% (14.8) is probably the best it can hope for. 

Edited January 1, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Brainbug]

Mendelson says TLJ has 68M 4-Day and Jumanji 66,5M:

 

Walt Disney's Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned another $68.3 million over the Fri-Mon frame, falling just 31% from the Christmas four-day frame (Christmas Day > New Year's Day) and bringing its domestic cume up to $533m after 18 days. That puts it just over Rogue One ($532m) and just under The Dark Knight ($534m in 2008) to eventually become the sixth-biggest domestic grosser of all time. Next on the chopping block is The Avengers ($623m) and possibly Jurassic World ($652m) and Titanic ($658m).

 

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is turning into a genuine sensation. The film earned an additional $66.5 million over the Fri-Mon holiday for a new $185.75m 13-day cume. It's now set to soon be Dwayne Johnson's second-biggest live-action domestic grosser (behind Furious 7). Although, at this juncture, I'd be shocked at this juncture if it didn't pass Moana ($248m) as well. We could be looking at a $275m+ finish on par with Illumination's Sing.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/01/01/box-office-the-last-jedi-barely-tops-jumanji-over-new-years/#49b2e4ff73fd

[Ryan Reynolds]

Jumanji likely winning today even if they miss the 4-day