New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Call Me by Your Name is not doing well. Stop it.

Oh child. You are still so new at this.

 

It's doing well for the number of theaters it's fine and how much competition it's facing on the arthouse front (and the multiplex one to an extent). SPC is being cautious with the expansion because they want to take advantage of the awards buzz in January so posting a $6K PTA from 115 theaters is more than acceptable.

[RichWS]

Darkest Hour's numbers are really terrific. 

[WrathOfHan]

CMBYN is basically on track for a sub-2k PTA when it goes into 600 theaters on the 19th:

 

It'll drop around 35% next weekend while only adding 3 theaters, so the PTA will be $4,700 with a 555k weekend

The following weekend it's adding 42 theaters. Given it's a 4 day weekend, the drop should be around 15%. That's a 472k weekend with a $2,950 PTA

Once it goes into 600+ theaters on the 19th, there's a wide range as to what it could do with Oscar nominations. However, even a 1M gross only gets it a $1,667 PTA. These limited numbers aren't good when it'll have limited wide appeal.

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, RichWS said:

Darkest Hour's numbers are really terrific. 

 

The age numbers are really terrific too.

Edited January 1, 2018 by That One Guy

[LonePirate]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Oh child. You are still so new at this.

 

It's doing well for the number of theaters it's fine and how much competition it's facing on the arthouse front (and the multiplex one to an extent). SPC is being cautious with the expansion because they want to take advantage of the awards buzz in January so posting a $6K PTA from 115 theaters is more than acceptable.

CMBYN has hit a wall for the most part. Molly's Game had a PTA over 40% higher in well over 100% more theaters so CMBYN's PTA is hardly impressive. In fact, it is only going to get weaker as it expands into smaller markets. Granted, it's not performing as poorly as All the Money in the World; but unless CMBYN receives some GGs and a truckload of Oscar noms, it probably won't hit $15M and may not even hit $12M.

Edited January 1, 2018 by LonePirate

[Webslinger]

Call Me by Your Name feels like it should be doing better because of the crazy-high level of critical acclaim it has received, but then I remember that the general public wouldn't see a methodically-paced same-sex romance as the event film we film buffs would.

 

Nevertheless, I did think it would do at least a bit better than a $6,000 average in 115 theaters.

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

CMBYN is basically on track for a sub-2k PTA when it goes into 600 theaters on the 19th:

 

It'll drop around 35% next weekend while only adding 3 theaters, so the PTA will be $4,700 with a 555k weekend

The following weekend it's adding 42 theaters. Given it's a 4 day weekend, the drop should be around 15%. That's a 472k weekend with a $2,950 PTA

Once it goes into 600+ theaters on the 19th, there's a wide range as to what it could do with Oscar nominations. However, even a 1M gross only gets it a $1,667 PTA. These limited numbers aren't good when it'll have limited wide appeal.

SPC is banking on Oscar nominations carrying it, like they did with Whiplash a few years ago (and fyi it's gonna have a total close to that movie pre-nominations despite opening almost 1.5 months later).

 

We're not looking at a particularly big box office tally for the Best Picture contenders this year though. Dunkirk, Get Out, and potentially The Post will be the only $100M+ grossers (and two of those are long out of theaters), while everything else will likely be sub-$50M, maybe even sub-$40M (I imagine Darkest Hour and The Shape of Water will cool down a bit once the holidays pass).

Edited January 1, 2018 by filmlover

[Ryan Reynolds]

Am I only one not seeing time of posts, only the date?

[JonathanLB]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Hmm, you mean they now know that.

No, that isn’t what I meant at all. I meant everyone already knew TLJ before release wasn’t going to be TFA. If you thought it would be a new phenomenon just like that you were living in fantasy world. Even if it made $750M that’s 2017 dollars and wouldn’t have compared to Avatar’s run or Titanic. Or TFA. 

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Am I only one not seeing time of posts, only the date?

No, it's not just you. I think this happened around New Year's last year as well?

[JB33]

19 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Am I only one not seeing time of posts, only the date?

Not just you. All the topics on the 2nd page and beyond are marked as read too.

[WrathOfHan]

I'll challenge that DH and SOW statement, filmlover  FORECASTS:

 

Darkest Hour:

Remainder of this week: 2.3M (22.1M Total)

Jan 5: 7.2M (3.3M weekdays, 32.6M Total) (I'm expecting 1,600 theaters next weekend with gradual increases throughout January)

Jan 12: 6.6M (3M weekdays, 42.2M Total)

Jan 19: 4M (2M weekdays, 48.2M Total)

Jan 26: 3.5M (1.4M weekdays, 53.1M Total)

Feb 2: 2.4M (600k weekdays, 56.1M Total)

Feb 9: 1M (400k weekdays, 57.5M Total)

Feb 16: 500k (300k weekdays, 58.3M Total)

Final Total: 63M

 

It'll probably get a re-expansion at the beginning of March before Oldman wins his Oscar. IMO, the movie shouldn't be dropping substantially until February.

 

SOW:

 

Remainder of this week: 1.6M (18.6M Total)

Jan 5: 5.4M (2M weekdays, 26M Total) (It should be in about 1,300-1,400 theaters next weekend and hit 2k either on the 19th or 26th)

Jan 12: 5M (2.4M weekdays, 33.4M Total)

Jan 19: 3.5M (1.5M weekdays, 38.4M Total)

Jan 26: 2.7M (1.1M weekdays, 42.2M Total)

Feb 2: 2M (500k weekdays, 44.7M Total)

Feb 9: 1M (400k weekdays, 46.1M Total)

Final Total: 53M

 

This has a lot more upward mobility if GDT wins Director

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Am I only one not seeing time of posts, only the date?

A glitch in the Matrix due to it being NYE.  Should fix itself whenever your timezone flips over to Jan 1st. 

[a2k]

Do we have an estimate around All the Money in the World's post-reshoots prod budget?

 

If it adds 2x the 4-day to it's cume (will rely on wom and awards season buzz) could do 30m dom.

1. All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,074 theaters (+6)/ $1.77M Fri/$2.1M Sat/ $1.6M Sun/ $1.75M Mon/3-day: $5.45M/4-day: $7.2M/Total: $14.4M/Wk 1

 

 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Hmm, you mean they now know that.

 

29 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

No, that isn’t what I meant at all. I meant everyone already knew TLJ before release wasn’t going to be TFA. If you thought it would be a new phenomenon just like that you were living in fantasy world. Even if it made $750M that’s 2017 dollars and wouldn’t have compared to Avatar’s run or Titanic. Or TFA. 

It was theoretically possible that Disney could have tried, emphasis on tried, to up the hype to TFA levels.  Among other things they didn't bother to hit Comic-con and while they did promote TLJ a lot it wasn't at TFA levels.

 

I said this before OW, so no sour grapes here, but I knew this wouldn't match TFA's craziness when I noted that one of my local supermarkets didn't have a single homemade Star Wars display in the store, while they went balls out for TFA.  Activity on various fora as well.

 

Disney also didn't really try to milk Carrie Fisher's death.  Like, at all.  There was some amount of speculation last Jan that Disney/Lucasfilm might try to make the leadup to TLJ a tribute to Carrie Fisher and go balls out in a remembrance for her by way of giving her a year-long send off.

 

This...  This did not end up happening.  Thankfully, IMO.  There was a super emotional tribute at SW Celebration, yes.  But that really was it, outside of the obligatory question/stray comment on press junkets.

 

So, yes, most people knew this wouldn't be TFA on release.  We also didn't know it would be this divisive or struggle to reach 3x.  But, hey, live and learn, right?  The more data we have the better able we'll be to make different mistakes in the future better predictions down the road.

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Do we have an estimate around All the Money in the World's post-reshoots prod budget?

 

If it adds 2x the 4-day to it's cume (will rely on wom and awards season buzz) could do 30m dom.

1. All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,074 theaters (+6)/ $1.77M Fri/$2.1M Sat/ $1.6M Sun/ $1.75M Mon/3-day: $5.45M/4-day: $7.2M/Total: $14.4M/Wk 1

 

 

It'll probably top out with around $25M. It's gonna be losing a lot of theaters within the next few weeks with its weekend numbers being so low as they are and a lone Supporting Actor nom probably won't be enough to persuade theaters to hold on to it.

Edited January 1, 2018 by filmlover

[Ryan Reynolds]

(L) Me at the beginning of 2017
(R) Me at the end of 2017#HappyNewYear2018 pic.twitter.com/kjT77a05N6

— @HamillHimself (@HamillHimself) December 31, 2017

[Fancyarcher]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

A glitch in the Matrix due to it being NYE.  Should fix itself whenever your timezone flips over to Jan 1st. 

It happened last year too. Given where I live, and my timezone, I'll have to wait 35 minutes before it changes. 

Edited January 1, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[AJG]

3 hours ago, narniadis said:

btw Saw Jumanji this afternoon. Can totally see why it has made bank at the box office - very pleasing film (even if it had way too many dick jokes).

 

Those were the best dick jokes I’ve seen in a film in years.

[BK007]

Saw All the Money in the World, and I have to say, though it is pretty well made, it still is a movie that rubs you the wrong way.

 

They want to try to make you empathize with these characters, but as the opening narration/trailer states, they aren't like us- and it's hard to feel much.

 

edit: As for CMBYN, I found the trailer slightly offputting because of the implied age of the younger actor's character. If it had been a girl pursuing Armie Hammer, I would feel the same. Probably will still see it, but at least that might explain some reservations where I had none for say Moonlight or Blue is the Warmest Colour (two excellent movies).

Edited January 1, 2018 by BK007
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