New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[redfirebird2008]

So they are projecting a 15% increase on Monday. Hopefully that is a lot more accurate than their projection last Monday. 

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I am really excited to see what happens with Greatest Showman from here, I have a feeling we might be in for a run that makes us think we're in the 80's or something. I think it will drop around 35% next weekend and then post some crazy small drops for the rest of its run. 

I could see this happening over the next week:

 

3.4M (-35%) (Charlotte's Web dropped 40% for comparison)

2.3M (-33%)

2.2M (-5%)

 

3.8M (+65%)

5.7M (+50%)

3.6M (-37%)

13.1M Weekend, 16% drop, 75.3M Total

 

Definitely think you're right on 125M being possible  

[Hiccup23]

Maybe I need to see the Greatest Showman now.

 

It feels like a movie my Grandma would very much enjoy and get a group of her retirement community to see at a matinee. 

 

God I hope The Shape of Water can expand more and at least surpass 50M domestic. The Shape of Water is a beautiful film and the GA who has seen it seems to be embracing it. 

 

It will be interesting to see Call Me By My Name expand in January as well. Is this a Brokeback Mountain?

 

I hope as well that I, Tonya can find an audience but I feel like it will have an arthouse gross of 30-40M domestic. 

[Ethan Hunt]

Greatest Showman is technically flawed in a whole bunch of ways. But by god does it make you feel things.

[NoLegMan]

2018 is going to be an insane year at the box office.

[Ethan Hunt]

Movie got applause at the end too. Can't tell you the last time I saw that happen (maybe La La Land?)

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I am really excited to see what happens with Greatest Showman from here, I have a feeling we might be in for a run that makes us think we're in the 80's or something. I think it will drop around 35% next weekend and then post some crazy small drops for the rest of its run. 

I think it will cross 100 both dom and os (had a 28.5 weekend os for 35+ cume).

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I could see this happening over the next week:

 

3.4M (-35%) (Charlotte's Web dropped 40% for comparison)

2.3M (-33%)

2.2M (-5%)

 

3.8M (+65%)

5.7M (+50%)

3.6M (-37%)

13.1M Weekend, 16% drop, 75.3M Total

 

Definitely think you're right on 125M being possible  

Don't know if I can see next weekend being that good, but I'm thinking 10-20% drops could be the norm for most of its run after next weekend. I do have a good feeling about 125. 

 

Ultimate fantasy would be 150 and beating Les Mis, which I would just find hilarious and oddly satisfying for many reasons. 

Edited January 1, 2018 by MovieMan89

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Hiccup23 said:

 

It will be interesting to see Call Me By My Name expand in January as well. Is this a Brokeback Mountain?

 

Absolutely not. Brokeback Mountain managed to have a PTA about 210% higher than CMBYN in more than double the theaters on the same weekend. 

[babz06]

Just now, a2knet said:

I think it will cross 100 both dom and os (had a 28.5 weekend os for 35+ cume).

Good recovery. 

[Maxmoser3]

8 minutes ago, McNerdy said:

Maybe the target audience also didn't want a movie too long and too serious (BR 2049/Apes 3), were stung by bad reviews for the prequels (Alien/Justice League), or the movie strayed too far from the source material (Baywatch/TLJ(?)).

This is true @McNerdy Blade Runner 2049 and Apes 3 had great reviews but yes I haven’t seen those two yet. But from the looks of the it they were too dark to be tentpoles.

 

Alien is a franchise that after 1986, the fan base has been sick of it. Yes I know Prometheus made money, but with the Alien branding name is very difficult. Alien 3 and Ressurection both underperformed. And then with Prometheus still in people’s heads, Covenant was going to be a tough sell. 

 

Baywatch relied on apeal of  attractive chicks(yes it did, I can’t lie) and the Rock/Zac Efron. Than just comedy, and the marketing was pathetic. And people weren’t impressed with the marketing to begin with. 

 

Jedi was one that pissed a lot of people off. So i wouldn’t call it a flop by any means. It’s doing great, yeah it’s not the force awakens. But was it going to? Of course not. Disney should be happy with the totals.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

I think it will cross 100 both dom and os (had a 28.5 weekend os for 35+ cume).

Finally a hit for Rebecca Ferguson. JLaw who?

[grey ghost]

TLJ is bad movie with over 90% on RT.

 

TLJ has a boring run even though it's the most discussed run since IT.

 

TLJ has terrible legs even though it will make what was expected based on how AOTC and ESB dropped domestically.

[babz06]

4 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

Maybe I need to see the Greatest Showman now.

 

It feels like a movie my Grandma would very much enjoy and get a group of her retirement community to see at a matinee. 

 

God I hope The Shape of Water can expand more and at least surpass 50M domestic. The Shape of Water is a beautiful film and the GA who has seen it seems to be embracing it. 

 

It will be interesting to see Call Me By My Name expand in January as well. Is this a Brokeback Mountain?

 

I hope as well that I, Tonya can find an audience but I feel like it will have an arthouse gross of 30-40M domestic. 

Call me By Your Name will not be close to Brokeback Mountain. It won’t even pass Moonlight. 

[SWXII]

On ‎12‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 3:47 PM, grey ghost said:

There's a blank slate now.

 

There are no expectations or fan theories to be destroyed.

 

All Disney has to do is make an entertaining SW movie.

 

And there's no way any SW fan is going to skip SW9, lol.

 

These guys sat through all three prequels despite all the bitching.

 

Personally will be waiting for reviews before even thinking about buying tickets to the Solo pic. 

[babz06]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

Finally a hit for Rebecca Ferguson. JLaw who?

Rebecca Ferguson who? They were selling this with Jackman and Zendaya/Zac Efron. 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, babz06 said:

Rebecca Ferguson who? They were selling this with Jackman and Zendaya/Zac Efron. 

They weren't selling it at all, that's why it opened so badly. 

[MinaTakla]

YAY for JUMAJI finally beating TLJ on Monday! 

It's a much better film imo. Like other posters said, you could really connect with its characters.

Oh and I loved Greatest Showman too. Flawed yes, but the soundtrack is on fire and it puts you in such a great mood

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

TLJ is bad movie with over 90% on RT.

 

TLJ has a boring run even though it's the most discussed run since IT.

 

TLJ has terrible legs even though it will make what was expected based on how AOTC and ESB dropped domestically.

Again, being at 90%, 100%, whatever% on RT is irrelevant regarding opinions. Each and every single person has their opinion, and just because professional critics said they like it, that doesn't mean that someone else who isn't a professional can't say that they thought it was bad. Can we disagree with them? Of course we can. Can we outright say that it is objectively not a bad movie because of the good reviews? Fuck outta here with that defensive and apologetic mindset. (And I liked TLJ, just so you know where this is coming from.)

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Also...Jumanji is the better film. The fact that I felt more emotionally connected to the four kids than Luke/Rey/Leia/Poe says a lot.

That was the secret weapon this movie had...the way the movie sets up and the great acting involved by all (I mean, when the Rock is the weak point, it's really working:) got all the folks in the theater rooting for the main leads...

 

And (since someone mentioned they hadn't heard applause in a long time), you should have heard my theater at the end - it was loud applause at a Thursday mid-afternoon matinee in northeast surburbia:)...