2018 100M Films - 33 down, 3 to go! (Big update)

[babz06]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

1. Black Panther

2. Peter Rabbit

3. Fifty Shades Freed 

4. Ready Player One

5. A Quiet Place

6. Avengers: Infinity War

7. Deadpool 2

8. Solo: A Star Wars Story

9. Incredibles 2

10. A Wrinkle in Time

11. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

12. Ocean's 8

13. Ant-Man and the Wasp

14. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

15. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

16. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

17. The Meg

18. Crazy Rich Asians

19. The Equalizer 2

20. Christopher Robin

21. The House with a Clock in Its Walls

22. Night School

23. A Star Is Born

24. Venom

25. First Man

26. Halloween

27. Bohemian Rhapsody

28. Dr. Suess' The Grinch

29. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

30. Ralph Breaks the Internet

31. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

32. Mary Poppins Returns

33. Alita: Battle Angel

34. Aquaman

35. Bumblebee

 

Widows and Creed need amazing reviews to hit 100M IMO. There are too many movies over that timeframe right now. We'll know the answer for the former soon thanks to TIFF.

I don't have The Nun hitting 100 anymore. I think it's opening to 35M and am expecting a 2.5-2.6x max no matter where it opens. If the late embargo is an early indicator of bad reviews and WOM, RIP.

Widows and Creed dont need amazing reviews. These films will appeal heavily to to black communities and cities and are fine choices for adult moviegoers over thanksgiving. 

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

I hardly doubt that "Widows" will come anywhere near 100 million $. Second trailer looks really bad, completely different story from the first one. It's obviously out of any awards race. "Night School" is more likely to make 55-75 million. And when it comes to "Bohemian Rhapsody" I don't know what to think. It looks good, but will it bring enough audience to gross more than 100?

[stripe]

From now on

 

Christopher Robin: if it fails, it will be for just 2-3M. I would say it will cross the mark.

The Nun: buzz is there and horror movies are on fire. I would say it's 90% in.

The House with a Clock in Its Walls: 50% chance. It needs quality to deliver legs

Night School: Can't see it at this point. CRA thunder burnt GA hunger for rom-com

A Star Is Born: IN

Venom: IN

First Man: Given the strong reviews and technical achievement... Almost sure it's IN

Halloween: IN. Buzz and awareness is definitely there

Nutcracker: Never underestimate Disney power. However, hard to see it crossing the mark at this point. 40% chances

Bohemian Rhapsody: Needs raves. A star is born will definitely hurt its chances

The Grinch: IN, but I am doubtful about this breaking out big

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: IN

Widows: it needs strong awards buzz. Other movies are already shadowing it. 

Ralph Breaks the Internet: IN

Creed 2: over the surprising hit of the previous movie? Wouldn't bet on it.

Mortal Engines: Be careful with this one. One of the big questions for me

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: IN

Mary Poppins Returns: IN

Alita Battle Angel: I am quite confident it will be one of the main surprises this Christmas. But it's far from locked. 80% chances

Aquaman: IN

Bumblebee: IN

 

The rest are longshots or are strongly related to their Awards traction

 

32 movies over 100M is the floor, IMHO. For the record, we need 4 movies surprising between all these: Alita / Mortal Engines / Widows / Creed / Bohemian / Nutcracker / House with a clock / Oscars hit / unexpexcted hits

[Blankments]

700M

1. Black Panther - August 5

600M

1. Black Panther - March 18
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 22
3. Incredibles 2 - September 2

500M

1. Black Panther - March 4
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 11
3. Incredibles 2 - July 8

400M

1. Black Panther - February 25
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 5
3. Incredibles 2 - June 29
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - August 1

300M

1. Black Panther - February 23
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 1
3. Deadpool 2 - June 22
4. Incredibles 2 - June 23
5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - July 5

200M

1. Black Panther - February 18
2. Avengers: Infinity War - April 29
3. Deadpool 2 - May 27
4. Incredibles 2 - June 18
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story - June 23
6. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - June 28
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp - August 10
8. Mission: Impossible - Fallout - September 1

100M

1. Black Panther - February 17
2. Peter Rabbit - March 17
3. Fifty Shades Freed - March 23
4. Ready Player One - April 10
5. A Quiet Place - April 15
6. Avengers: Infinity War - April 27
7. Deadpool 2 - May 20
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story - May 28
9. Incredibles 2 - June 16
10. A Wrinkle in Time - June 18
11. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - June 23
12. Ocean's 8 - June 24
13. Ant-Man and the Wasp - July 12
14. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation - July 24
15. Mission: Impossible - Fallout - August 4
16. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - August 11
17. The Meg - August 25
18. Crazy Rich Asians - September 1
19. Equalizer 2 - September 2

[tonytr87]

On 9/5/2018 at 4:38 AM, stripe said:

From now on

 

Christopher Robin: if it fails, it will be for just 2-3M. I would say it will cross the mark.

The Nun: buzz is there and horror movies are on fire. I would say it's 90% in.

The House with a Clock in Its Walls: 50% chance. It needs quality to deliver legs

Night School: Can't see it at this point. CRA thunder burnt GA hunger for rom-com

A Star Is Born: IN

Venom: IN

First Man: Given the strong reviews and technical achievement... Almost sure it's IN

Halloween: IN. Buzz and awareness is definitely there

Nutcracker: Never underestimate Disney power. However, hard to see it crossing the mark at this point. 40% chances

Bohemian Rhapsody: Needs raves. A star is born will definitely hurt its chances

The Grinch: IN, but I am doubtful about this breaking out big

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: IN

Widows: it needs strong awards buzz. Other movies are already shadowing it. 

Ralph Breaks the Internet: IN

Creed 2: over the surprising hit of the previous movie? Wouldn't bet on it.

Mortal Engines: Be careful with this one. One of the big questions for me

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: IN

Mary Poppins Returns: IN

Alita Battle Angel: I am quite confident it will be one of the main surprises this Christmas. But it's far from locked. 80% chances

Aquaman: IN

Bumblebee: IN

 

The rest are longshots or are strongly related to their Awards traction

 

32 movies over 100M is the floor, IMHO. For the record, we need 4 movies surprising between all these: Alita / Mortal Engines / Widows / Creed / Bohemian / Nutcracker / House with a clock / Oscars hit / unexpexcted hits

 

I think Bumblebee is out. Have a feeling it will perform exactly like an unnecessary spinoff, so like 85 or 90 mil. 

[Maxmoser3]

The Nun will sneak past it. It may honestly be the only $100 million of this month, which is the lowest performer for a film in September since Maze Runner or The Lion King re-issue 

[Hiccup23]

19 so far

 

Locked -Puts us at 30 films 

Christopher Robin

The Nun

A Star Is Born

Vemon

Halloween

Grinch

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald

Wreck It Ralph 2

Aquaman

Mary Popins Returns

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse

 

Good Chance- Puts us at 34 films

First Man

Bohemian Rhapsody 

Alita

Bumblebee

 

Wildcard- Puts as at 39 films

A Clock in the Wall

Nutcracker

Creed 2

Mortal Engines

Random Oscar film

 

[dxmatrixdt]

not sure Bohemian Rhapsody makes it.

hopefully I can get my opinions finalized by a lawyer and cautiously cut and pasted onto this forum before hitting submit.  keep it real.

[tonytr87]

On 9/4/2018 at 4:26 PM, Viktor Vilotijevic said:

I hardly doubt that "Widows" will come anywhere near 100 million $. Second trailer looks really bad, completely different story from the first one. It's obviously out of any awards race. "Night School" is more likely to make 55-75 million. And when it comes to "Bohemian Rhapsody" I don't know what to think. It looks good, but will it bring enough audience to gross more than 100?

 

Your opinion and no it is not. Read the pundits, and with an 87 on Metacritic it's still way in. 

[tonytr87]

I don't think Bohemian Rhapsody makes it. Halloween is questionable too. I see it performing similar to The Predator. 

[MattW]

23 with 6 more guaranteed and a couple of possibles and Christopher Robin. 

29-32 total for the year.

 

 

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

Christopher Robbin won't make it to 100 million. I see "Bohemian Rhapsody" making between 105 and 115 million. I would say 32-33 films with over 100 million.

[MCKillswitch123]

2 hours ago, Viktor Vilotijevic said:

Christopher Robbin won't make it to 100 million. I see "Bohemian Rhapsody" making between 105 and 115 million. I would say 32-33 films with over 100 million.

Nutcracker comes out next week and it's less than 2M away. Disney will fudge it for sure.

[Eric Duncan]

1. Black Panther
2. Peter Rabbit
3. Fifty Shades Freed
4. Ready Player One
5. A Quiet Place
6. Avengers: Infinity War
7. Deadpool 2
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story
9. Incredibles 2
10. A Wrinkle in Time
11. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
12. Ocean's 8
13. Ant-Man and the Wasp
14. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
15. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
16. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
17. The Meg
18. Crazy Rich Asians
19. Equalizer 2
20. The Nun
21. Venom
22. A Star is Born
23. Halloween
24. Christopher Robin
25. Bohemian Rhapsody
26. The Grinch
27. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
28. Ralph Breaks the Internet
29. Green Book
30. Creed II
31. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
32. The Mule
33. Mary Poppins Returns
34. Aquaman
35. Bumblebee

Don't know if the record's happening this year. I'm already feeling cautious on putting Creed in the list. We basically have to rely on some combination of Nutcracker/Widows/Instant Family/Vice for the record to be toppled.

Edited October 27, 2018 by CoolEric258

[MCKillswitch123]

@CoolEric258 Christopher Robin is gonna cross 100M too. After pretty much publically showing that they give no fucks about being blatant with their fudges through AWIT, no way Disney are gonna Rampage or Gnomeo this one, especially with Nutcracker out next week. I'd swap it with Green Book, which really doesn't sound like the kind of movie that is a huge commercial hit, even with Oscar buzz. Feel like The Mule, Vice and Widows are gonna steal all the awards contender box office hype.

 

That being said, I feel like 2018 isn't breaking the record anyway, so I'm already gonna look for 2019 here (wildcards in italic):

Spoiler

1. Glass
2. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part
3. Alita: Battle Angel
4. How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
5. Captain Marvel
6. Us
7. Dumbo
8. Shazam!
9. Pet Sematary
10. The Curse Of La Llorona
11. Avengers 4
12. Pokémon: Detective Pikachu
13. John Wick 3: Parabellum
14. Aladdin
15. Ad Astra
16. Godzilla: King Of The Monsters
17. Rocketman
18. Dark Phoenix
19. The Secret Life Of Pets 2
20. MIB
21. Toy Story 4
22. Danny Boyle & Richard Curtis untitled musical
23. Spider-Man: Far From Home
24. Annabelle 3
25. The Lion King
26. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
27. Hobbs & Shaw
28. The New Mutants
29. It: Chapter 2
30. Spies In Disguise
31. Joker
32. You Are My Friend
33. Kingsman 3
34. Frozen 2
35. Jumanji 3
36. Star Wars: Episode IX
37. Cats
38. Little Women

 

[Eric Duncan]

Oh yeah, forgot about Christopher Robin.

 

Green Book has all the elements of a 100M sleeper hit. It's won multiple audience awards at many different festivals, and just about every review and tweet about the movie mentions it as a major broad crowdpleaser a la Wonder/The Blind Side/The Help/Hidden Figures/Crazy Rich Asians. I have faith in it.

 

I was optimistic about Widows, but the tracking as of now has the film landing in the teens. It could go up thanks to its reviews and if the final marketing stretch delivers, but it's still in a crowded November frame with a slew of other films also targeting adults. Even with the Thanksgiving frame, it would have to open to Orient Express numbers for me to be really confident in 100M.

 

And I guess with 2019 around the corner:

1. Glass

2. Lego 2

3. What Men Want

4. Alita

5. Dragon 3

6. Captain Marvel

7. Us

8. Dumbo

9. Shazam

10. Avengers

11. Aladdin

12. Godzilla 2

13. Dark Phoenix

14. SLOP 2

15. MIB

16. Toy Story 4

17. Ford v. Ferrari

18. Annabelle 3

19. Spider-Man: Far From Home

20. The Lion King

21. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

22. Hobbs & Shaw

23. It: Chapter 2

24. The Kitchen

25. Abominable

26. Gemini Man

27. Joker

28. Charlie's Angels 

29. Terminator

30. Frozen 2

31. Queen & Slim

32. Jumanji

33. Cats

34. Star Wars

35. Little Women

 

Damn, even next year might not beat the record.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

Oh yeah, forgot about Christopher Robin.

 

Green Book has all the elements of a 100M sleeper hit. It's won multiple audience awards at many different festivals, and just about every review and tweet about the movie mentions it as a major broad crowdpleaser a la Wonder/The Blind Side/The Help/Hidden Figures/Crazy Rich Asians. I have faith in it.

 

I was optimistic about Widows, but the tracking as of now has the film landing in the teens. It could go up thanks to its reviews and if the final marketing stretch delivers, but it's still in a crowded November frame with a slew of other films also targeting adults. Even with the Thanksgiving frame, it would have to open to Orient Express numbers for me to be really confident in 100M.

 

And I guess with 2019 around the corner:

1. Glass

2. Lego 2

3. What Men Want

4. Alita

5. Dragon 3

6. Captain Marvel

7. Us

8. Dumbo

9. Shazam

10. Avengers

11. Aladdin

12. Godzilla 2

13. Dark Phoenix

14. SLOP 2

15. MIB

16. Toy Story 4

17. Ford v. Ferrari

18. Annabelle 3

19. Spider-Man: Far From Home

20. The Lion King

21. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

22. Hobbs & Shaw

23. It: Chapter 2

24. The Kitchen

25. Abominable

26. Gemini Man

27. Joker

28. Charlie's Angels 

29. Terminator

30. Frozen 2

31. Queen & Slim

32. Jumanji

33. Cats

34. Star Wars

35. Little Women

 

Damn, even next year might not beat the record.

I don't think the marketing for Widows has been striking enough so an opening in the teens sounds about right. Should lead to a $60-70M total which would be solid. Green Book feels like it's shaping up to be the next crowd-pleasing surprise hit.

 

Also I'd say On the Basis of Sex would have the ingredients for a crowd-pleasing hit too if the reviews are good and it becomes a late-dropping contender like Hidden Figures did but given that Focus has only had one $80M+ grosser in their entire history it'll probably settle for numbers similar to Darkest Hour at best

Edited October 27, 2018 by filmlover

[stripe]

On 9/5/2018 at 11:38 AM, stripe said:

From now on

 

Christopher Robin: if it fails, it will be for just 2-3M. I would say it will cross the mark.

The Nun: buzz is there and horror movies are on fire. I would say it's 90% in.

The House with a Clock in Its Walls: 50% chance. It needs quality to deliver legs

Night School: Can't see it at this point. CRA thunder burnt GA hunger for rom-com

A Star Is Born: IN

Venom: IN

First Man: Given the strong reviews and technical achievement... Almost sure it's IN

Halloween: IN. Buzz and awareness is definitely there

Nutcracker: Never underestimate Disney power. However, hard to see it crossing the mark at this point. 40% chances

Bohemian Rhapsody: Needs raves. A star is born will definitely hurt its chances

The Grinch: IN, but I am doubtful about this breaking out big

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: IN

Widows: it needs strong awards buzz. Other movies are already shadowing it. 

Ralph Breaks the Internet: IN

Creed 2: over the surprising hit of the previous movie? Wouldn't bet on it.

Mortal Engines: Be careful with this one. One of the big questions for me

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: IN

Mary Poppins Returns: IN

Alita Battle Angel: I am quite confident it will be one of the main surprises this Christmas. But it's far from locked. 80% chances

Aquaman: IN

Bumblebee: IN

 

The rest are longshots or are strongly related to their Awards traction

 

32 movies over 100M is the floor, IMHO. For the record, we need 4 movies surprising between all these: Alita / Mortal Engines / Widows / Creed / Bohemian / Nutcracker / House with a clock / Oscars hit / unexpexcted hits

 

First Man failed to reach the mark, but Bohemian Rapsody should take its place. Alita has been removed, but replaced with The Mule (watch out with that movie). And we have a probable hit that I didn't mention: Green Book.

 

My guess: Christopher Robin, Bohemian rhapsody, grinch, fantastic beasts 2, ralph 2, green book, Spider-man, Mary Poppins, Aquaman, Bumblebee, Mule. That puts us with 34 films. 

[WrathOfHan]

1. Black Panther
2. Peter Rabbit
3. Fifty Shades Freed
4. Ready Player One
5. A Quiet Place
6. Avengers: Infinity War
7. Deadpool 2
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story
9. Incredibles 2
10. A Wrinkle in Time
11. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
12. Ocean's 8
13. Ant-Man and the Wasp
14. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
15. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
16. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
17. The Meg
18. Crazy Rich Asians
19. The Equalizer 2
20. The Nun
21. Venom
22. A Star is Born
23. Halloween
24. Disney's Christopher Robin
25. Bohemian Rhapsody
26. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
27. Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
28. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
29. Widows
30. Green Book
31. Ralph Breaks the Internet
32. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
33. Aquaman
34. Bumblebee
35. Mary Poppins Returns

 

5/7 of The Nutcracker, Widows, Green Book, Creed, The Mule, and Vice need to hit 100M for this year to be successful. It'll be a nailbiter.

[Eric Duncan]

I feel like a lot of us are underestimating Instant Family, even with all of the family movies out this holiday. The trailer plays well when I see it in the theater, and there's a decent market for this kind of family movie as the Daddy's Home films have proved. Seems like a good alternative to stuff like Ralph or Fantastic Beasts.