Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's a holiday weekend - few will be 0...if there are, they are made up for by super users just getting the card and "catching up"...

 

It's also a program that doesn't ding you for weekdays vs weekends, so the largest use will be weekends...

 

Look, keep watching as the weeks roll by.  I know many of you don't buy what I'm pitching, but the proof will be in the numbers...over and over and over...

 

Until we have a MoviePass family pass, movies set up to be strictly for a kid audience with nothing appealing to adults, will be getting skewered...

 

 

 

So because of MoviePass, people with kids are just gonna... stop taking their kids to the movies?

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I say until we see a noticeable uptick in the average multi for movies across the board, MP isn't having any notable effect. And no, Jumanji and TGS on their own aren't enough to argue that multis have increased on average. 

It's been 8 weeks since it's gone from .5M to 1.5M...not gonna be a whole lotta evidence on legs built yet...although your 1st 2 mentioned movies are the start:)...won't be the finish...

 

(And it's also not just "legs" - walk up movies will get OW effects - or you think Insidious blowing through tracking was another "fluke"?)

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

Going to the movies at all is a huge time sink.

 

Going twice in the same weekend is even more, once you get past that it's getting ridiculous. People straight up don't have time for that shit.

This. It's even more of a timesink without reserved seating.

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's a holiday weekend - few will be 0...if there are, they are made up for by super users just getting the card and "catching up"...

 

It's also a program that doesn't ding you for weekdays vs weekends, so the largest use will be weekends...

 

Look, keep watching as the weeks roll by.  I know many of you don't buy what I'm pitching, but the proof will be in the numbers...over and over and over...

 

Until we have a MoviePass family pass, movies set up to be strictly for a kid audience with nothing appealing to adults, will be getting skewered...

 

 

Why do you assume people are going to use it every week just because they have it? A movie has to have some kind of appeal before most anyone will want to go see it, even for "free." There's bound to be loads of people who don't find any of the releases this weekend appealing. We are in the so called "dumping grounds" after all. 80% of people who have it probably signed up because they average going to the movies twice a month, so it's already a good deal for them. Now maybe they will bump that average up to 4 times a month because they can go as much as they want now, but it's not going to suddenly be jumping from twice a month on average to 10-15x a month for most people. 

 

And I wouldn't be surprised if Peter Rabbit becomes one of only 4 or so 100m+ grossers of the year before IW. So we'll see about that last bit.  

Edited January 12, 2018 by MovieMan89

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

So because of MoviePass, people with kids are just gonna... stop taking their kids to the movies?

Yes...

 

I've said this before and I'll repeat (b/c I have kids).

 

Mom and dad have MoviePass - they go on a free date movie every weekend - this is awesome.

Kids do NOT have MoviePass.  Moviepass also does not allow for prebought tickets.  Now, Mom and Dad, to take Jane and Johnny to the theater, have to not only buy their tickets, but also buy their own.  Before, not a big deal, but now, it's $20 for them + $20 for Mom and Dad who have already paid for movies - this sucks!  Plus, Mom and Dad are already always at the movies - why take time out and see another one, especially when Jane and Johnny would probably happily watch it on tv if we bribed them with a trampoline park, a birthday party, a bowling trip, etc...

 

Til there's a family pass, this is killer...and this itself could kill the industry rapidly...

[Mojoguy]

12 Strong is getting IMAX next week. FWIW TLJ has totally lost IMAX in Orlando; The Commuter is on 3/4 IMAXs while Jumanji has the other one. Pretty sure the only PLF it has left is the Dolby at Disney Springs where it's sharing with Jumanji

Surprised at 12 Strong getting IMAX.
Pretty sure IMAX is annoyed TLJ was hogging the IMAX screens from Jumanji for so long.

[Maxmoser3]

Proud Mary and somewhat The Post are the better debuts. The Post was a different film than Hidden Figures and the smaller films, so a total around $60-$70 million would be safe.

 

Proud Mary would be a modest profit.

 

The Commuter has poor wom, the film didn’t look awesome like Non Stop.

 

Paddington 2 will be more international, the original was a movie that served as solid counter programming against American Sniper. Also too I think families are kinda bored, if you like at family movies of last year the biggest hits were Despicable Me 3, Coco, Lego Batman, and Boss Baby. Comparing that to 2016 when you had Finding Dory, Secret Life Of Pets, Zootopia, Sing, Moana,Trolls, and kinda Kung Fu Panda 3. 2018’s family batch will be also limited since Incredibles 2, Grinch, and Wreck It Ralph 2 will make the most $$$ this year.

[Jonwo]

8 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

The Post isn’t overly exciting material for the GA, plus I could see it having backlash with conservative movie goers due to Streep and the big media angle.

It's not like The Post is bombing, it's actually on par with Lincoln's OW and a tad higher than BoS. I think perhaps of the PTA in limited release and the subject matter, people thought it would be more akin to Sully or Hidden Figures in terms of OW but Sully was based on an relatively recent event and Hidden Figures tapped into the African American and female audiences with a uplifting story. 

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's been 8 weeks since it's gone from .5M to 1.5M...not gonna be a whole lotta evidence on legs built yet...although your 1st 2 mentioned movies are the start:)...won't be the finish...

 

(And it's also not just "legs" - walk up movies will get OW effects - or you think Insidious blowing through tracking was another "fluke"?)

If it's really having a real effect on legs, it's going to be most noticeable in the movies that are more lukewarmly or poorly received. For example, TLJ should be flying past 3x if MP is having such a big effect on the box office now. Movies with good to great WOM are likely to get good multis anyways. 

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yes...

 

I've said this before and I'll repeat (b/c I have kids).

 

Mom and dad have MoviePass - they go on a free date movie every weekend - this is awesome.

Kids do NOT have MoviePass.  Moviepass also does not allow for prebought tickets.  Now, Mom and Dad, to take Jane and Johnny to the theater, have to not only buy their tickets, but also buy their own.  Before, not a big deal, but now, it's $20 for them + $20 for Mom and Dad who have already paid for movies - this sucks!  Plus, Mom and Dad are already always at the movies - why take time out and see another one, especially when Jane and Johnny would probably happily watch it on tv if we bribed them with a trampoline park, a birthday party, a bowling trip, etc...

 

Til there's a family pass, this is killer...and this itself could kill the industry rapidly...

 

I think you're just projecting your own experiences here. I am dead certain that 90% of parents aren't using their MoviePass to go on a free date movie every weekend.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

I think you're just projecting your own experiences here.

No, I don't have MoviePass...

 

Human behavioral discussion doesn't require personal experience:)...

 

 

[Mojoguy]

It's time for TwoMisfits to change his/her name to OneWhoTalksAboutMoviePass.

[MovieMan89]

It can't be understated either that almost 100% of the people who have subscribed to MP right now are the kind that are likely to go to the movies at least one or two times a month or so on average, or else why would they care in the first place if they're not the moviegoing type? So if the average MP holder is going 4x a month, subtract 2 of those times from any "extra" money being added at the box office. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If it's really having a real effect on legs, it's going to be most noticeable in the movies that are more lukewarmly or poorly received. For example, TLJ should be flying past 3x if MP is having such a big effect on the box office now. Movies with good to great WOM are likely to get good multis anyways. 

Lukewarmly critically received, but not audience received...I mean, what audience would want to watch a movie they hated the 1st time...

 

TGS is the greatest example of a success...critics hated it, audiences loved it, and those legs aren't coming from folks watching it one time...

[DAJK]

I try to stay well away from American politics, but would it be stupid of me to say that I think 12 Strong and The Post can easily co-exist this month, as they'll in a way each be playing heavily to a different political demographic?

 

Also, really hoping a lot of those MoviePass holders are teens who'll turn up for Maze stunner

[TwoMisfits]

 

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

It's time for TwoMisfits to change his/her name to OneWhoTalksAboutMoviePass.

Hey, we talk box office...and the biggest thing to blow up all our box office conceptions this year is gonna be this product...

 

Just like I'd have been happy last summer to be the "OnewhotalksabouthowWWisn'tlikeanormalsupersmovie", I'll be happy to be the "OnewhotalksabouthowMoviePassisbecomingaboxofficechangerforbothgoodandill":)... 

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

No, I don't have MoviePass...

 

Human behavioral discussion doesn't require personal experience:)...

 

 

 

The issue is that not many humans act like the way you're describing in your anecdote up above.

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, aabattery said:

Going to the movies at all is a huge time sink.

 

Going twice in the same weekend is even more, once you get past that it's getting ridiculous. People straight up don't have time for that shit.

 

Let me do my calculations 

 

 

2 hour 15 minutes movie starts at 5pm

 

Leave house at 4pm

 

Arrive at cinema at 4:45pm

 

Buy tickets and go to the Tesco Express for Popcorn = 10 minutes

 

Go to to DVD shops = 20 minutes

 

Have a cigarette = 5 minutes

 

Arrive back at cinema and take seats at 5:20pm

 

Watch trailers = 10 minutes

 

Watch movie

 

Movie ends at 7:45pm

 

Arrive home at 8:30pm

 

A 2 hour and 15 minute movie takes 4 and a half hours out of your day.  I could watch 2 movies naked at home with that time. 

 

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

The issue is that not many humans act like the way you're describing in your anecdote up above.

I'd ask how you know this...since people being unwilling to pay for what they've already paid for is well known concept:)...

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yes...

 

I've said this before and I'll repeat (b/c I have kids).

 

Mom and dad have MoviePass - they go on a free date movie every weekend - this is awesome.

Kids do NOT have MoviePass.  Moviepass also does not allow for prebought tickets.  Now, Mom and Dad, to take Jane and Johnny to the theater, have to not only buy their tickets, but also buy their own.  Before, not a big deal, but now, it's $20 for them + $20 for Mom and Dad who have already paid for movies - this sucks!  Plus, Mom and Dad are already always at the movies - why take time out and see another one, especially when Jane and Johnny would probably happily watch it on tv if we bribed them with a trampoline park, a birthday party, a bowling trip, etc...

 

Til there's a family pass, this is killer...and this itself could kill the industry rapidly...

Don't you still have to pay for the babby sitter if kids are not in age of being interested in adult movies ?