Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[DAJK]

WB failed to capitalize...

 

 

 

 

 

[The Panda]

22 minutes ago, DAJK said:

 

A close second, but I will never betray our true silly old bear

Christopher Robin should be a major hit then!

[WrathOfHan]

Forecasting the new releases:

 

The Post (19.3M 3 day/24.3M 4 day):

Remainder of this week: 5M (33.8M Total)

Jan 19: 13.5M (6.1M weekdays, 53.4M Total)

Jan 26: 11M (5.5M weekdays, 69.9M Total)

Feb 2: 8.6M (3.2M weekdays, 81.7M Total)

Feb 9: 6M (2.7M weekdays, 90.4M Total)

Feb 16: 4.4M (2.5M weekdays, 97.3M Total)

Feb 23: 3.5M (1.6M weekdays, 102.4M Total)

Mar 2: 3.2M (1M weekdays, 106.6M Total)

Mar 9: 1.6M (500k weekdays, 108.7M Total)

Final Total: 111M (4.57x from 4 day/5.75x from 3 day)

 

With the weak market over the next few weeks and Oscar buzz, I think it can still pass Captain Phillips despite a 4 day on the level of CP's 3 day.

 

Paddington (10.7M/13.6M):

Remainder of this week: 2.3M (15.9M Total)

Jan 19: 8.4M (2.4M weekdays, 26.7M Total)

Jan 26: 6.9M (2M weekdays, 35.6M Total)

Feb 2: 4.5M (1.3M weekdays, 41.4M Total)

Feb 9: 2M (600k weekdays, 44M Total)

Final Total: 48M (3.53x/4.49x)

 

Obviously this isn't the desired outcome, but it'll still be profitable because of OS.

 

The Commuter (12.3M/14.8M):

Remainder of this week: 2.3M (17.1M Total)

Jan 19: 4.8M (1.7M weekdays, 23.6M Total)

Jan 26: 2.6M (900k weekdays, 27.1M Total)

Final Total: 30M (2.03x/2.44x)

 

Proud Mary (9M/10.9M):

Remainder of this week: 1.8M (12.7M Total)

Jan 19: 4.2M (1M weekdays, 17.9M Total)

Jan 26: 2M (400k weekdays, 20.3M Total)

Final Total: 22M (2.02x/2.44x)

 

[Blaze Heatnix]

Someone says that Paddington 2 poster

Spoiler

actually appears in The Commuter ( reddit users are saying you can spot it during the opening scene with Liam Neeson )

...That's amazing!

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Someone says that Paddington 2 poster

  Hide contents

actually appears in The Commuter ( reddit users are saying you can spot it during the opening scene with Liam Neeson )

...That's amazing!

Studio Canal. Their power.

[Harpospoke]

1 hour ago, Jandrew said:

Shouldnt be surprised that America is dumb enough to give Paddington only $2.4, look at out current state.

 

At the same time it is disappointing that we still have a hard time breaking out and embracing things that arent American. Hell Despacito didnt break out until they slapped  Americanly-marketable Bieber on it after all.

Geez...some of you guys are really into Paddington!     Now "America is dumb" because they aren't into it?   Does that mean the world is "dumb" because they weren't into the Peanuts movie?    China is "dumb" because they aren't into Star Wars and were most interested in a movie with a Chinese cast.  (or does that make them "racist"?)

 

Sounds like an excuse to wedge politics into it.   You're just dying to talk about this perceived "current state", aren't you?   (don't panic, the "current state" will be  fine just like it was fine for the the past decade when you liked the POTUS)

30 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Oh yea I didn't even mention about last night cause I was so high on Paddington and so low on numbers...

 

There's this old guy who comes to the movies every few months and sees all the typical action movies. And he loves most of them, but how he Ellen us he loves them gets more hyperbolic with each time he sees them... with big arm gestures and weird comparisons etc. 

Anyway he comes out of the Commuter last night and I'm hanging out in box office with this one girl and he walks past us on the other side of the glass and is like

"I AM 80 YEARS OLD AND THE COMMUTER WAS IN THE TOP 5 I HAVE EVER SEEN IN MY LIFETIME! THE TENSION BUILDS AND BUILDS AND BUILDS UNTIL YOU JUST CANT TAKE IT ANYMORE!!"

 

I have to give the guy credit, he does actually justify why he likes a movie.

That's pretty awesome.   80 years old and still excited about seeing new movies?   I want that someday.

[AJG]

8 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Someone says that Paddington 2 poster

  Reveal hidden contents

actually appears in The Commuter ( reddit users are saying you can spot it during the opening scene with Liam Neeson )

...That's amazing!

 

That's common. On Kimmy Schmidt (an NBC show) all the cinema posters were for Universal films (I think Huntsman 2 was being released around the same time the show came out).

 

[Barnack]

30 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yeah, I saw that already. And if the production budget is 30M, then the movie would be a flop if it only made 30M DOM. This is a Screen Gems African American-audience skewing thriller, and those are never money makers internationally

 

I fully expect the movie to do very little OS, I said that because historically when mid budget or up achieve to make close to 100% of their budget + bonus or more in the domestic market alone, they do not loose real money.

 

Looking at the most recent Screen gems release with an around 30m domestic BO that leaked is accounting details, Deliver Us From evil, that movie made 48m in revenues from the domestic market alone with a 32m dbo.

 

If PM do something similar and achieve to generate a 5 to 8M profit from oversea in a worst case scenario, it could pay for most of that 30m production and say 25-30m total domestic release cost (theatrical and home Video). Not a big enough lost to be called a flop imo.

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecasting the new releases:

 

The Post (19.3M 3 day/24.3M 4 day):

Remainder of this week: 5M (33.8M Total)

Jan 19: 13.5M (6.1M weekdays, 53.4M Total)

Jan 26: 11M (5.5M weekdays, 69.9M Total)

Feb 2: 8.6M (3.2M weekdays, 81.7M Total)

Feb 9: 6M (2.7M weekdays, 90.4M Total)

Feb 16: 4.4M (2.5M weekdays, 97.3M Total)

Feb 23: 3.5M (1.6M weekdays, 102.4M Total)

Mar 2: 3.2M (1M weekdays, 106.6M Total)

Mar 9: 1.6M (500k weekdays, 108.7M Total)

Final Total: 111M (4.57x from 4 day/5.75x from 3 day)

 

With the weak market over the next few weeks and Oscar buzz, I think it can still pass Captain Phillips despite a 4 day on the level of CP's 3 day.

 

Paddington (10.7M/13.6M):

Remainder of this week: 2.3M (15.9M Total)

Jan 19: 8.4M (2.4M weekdays, 26.7M Total)

Jan 26: 6.9M (2M weekdays, 35.6M Total)

Feb 2: 4.5M (1.3M weekdays, 41.4M Total)

Feb 9: 2M (600k weekdays, 44M Total)

Final Total: 48M (3.53x/4.49x)

 

Obviously this isn't the desired outcome, but it'll still be profitable because of OS.

 

The Commuter (12.3M/14.8M):

Remainder of this week: 2.3M (17.1M Total)

Jan 19: 4.8M (1.7M weekdays, 23.6M Total)

Jan 26: 2.6M (900k weekdays, 27.1M Total)

Final Total: 30M (2.03x/2.44x)

 

Proud Mary (9M/10.9M):

Remainder of this week: 1.8M (12.7M Total)

Jan 19: 4.2M (1M weekdays, 17.9M Total)

Jan 26: 2M (400k weekdays, 20.3M Total)

Final Total: 22M (2.02x/2.44x)

 

I still wouldn't say your 200M Post prediction was too crazy. At the time, it really did look like the movie could capture the zeitgeist and looked like it may be a perfect storm. 200 may have been just slightly high, but considering how the movie could still do 100M even though it's technically disappointing at the box office, says something. Don't take shit for that prediction

 

Paddington on the other hand, if it misses 50M I'm going to throw a fit

[Webslinger]

I'm bummed that Paddington 2 made such little money last night. It's an incredibly delightful film that deserves way more attention from just about every single demographic. I know there have been other, larger family-friendly hits than this next example in the last six months, but it just feels wrong that something as hollow and cynical as The Emoji Movie was a hit while a family movie where every single performer in the cast gives their all and appears to want to do justice the source material struggles to find an audience.

[The Panda]

14 minutes ago, Harpospoke said:

Geez...some of you guys are really into Paddington!     Now "America is dumb" because they aren't into it?   Does that mean the world is "dumb" because they weren't into the Peanuts movie?    China is "dumb" because they aren't into Star Wars and were most interested in a movie with a Chinese cast.  (or does that make them "racist"?)

 

Sounds like an excuse to wedge politics into it.   You're just dying to talk about this perceived "current state", aren't you?   (don't panic, the "current state" will be  fine just like it was fine for the the past decade when you liked the POTUS)

That's pretty awesome.   80 years old and still excited about seeing new movies?   I want that someday.

Yes

[MCKillswitch123]

11 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

I fully expect the movie to do very little OS, I said that because historically when mid budget or up achieve to make close to 100% of their budget + bonus or more in the domestic market alone, they do not loose real money.

 

Looking at the most recent Screen gems release with an around 30m domestic BO that leaked is accounting details, Deliver Us From evil, that movie made 48m in revenues from the domestic market alone with a 32m dbo.

 

If PM do something similar and achieve to generate a 5 to 8M profit from oversea in a worst case scenario, it could pay for most of that 30m production and say 25-30m total domestic release cost (theatrical and home Video). Not a big enough lost to be called a flop imo.

Fair enough, I guess. In my mind, any movie that barely makes its budget back is closer to flop than success, but I guess in scenarios like these small budget thrillers Screen Gems makes, it's hardly a big loss. They'll make it back easily with whatever crapfest they shit out sometime in September.

 

Speaking of Screen Gems, I can't wait for Don't Breathe 2 (although I'm not a huge fan of how it was set up in the 1st one). I was gonna ask how long is it gonna take until we get it, but Fede Alvarez is doing The Girl On The Spider's Web right now, so maybe after that. It'd be cool if that was a good movie, but given the track record of every October adult thriller in the last few years (that isn't Gone Girl or The Accountant.... look at the pattern there), as well as people's lack of expectation, odds are not looking too good.

4 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

I'm bummed that Paddington 2 made such little money last night. It's an incredibly delightful film that deserves way more attention from just about every single demographic. I know there have been other, larger family-friendly hits than this next example in the last six months, but it just feels wrong that something as hollow and cynical as The Emoji Movie was a hit while a family movie where every single performer in the cast gives their all and appears to want to do justice the source material struggles to find an audience.

Again, let's just hope that this is another The Boy-like situation where bad weather prevents people from going to theaters, and next week, the movie has a great drop as a result. Maybe an increase, if wom really spreads out.

 

I mean, come on, I haven't seen it and even I know that it doesn't deserve a result this low. The 3-day is less than what Pitch Perfect 3 made last weekend, and PP3 was #5 in the top 10 and it was on its 3rd weekend, for fuck's sake.

27 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Someone says that Paddington 2 poster

  Reveal hidden contents

actually appears in The Commuter ( reddit users are saying you can spot it during the opening scene with Liam Neeson )

...That's amazing!

Even The Commuter wants you to go see Paddington 2. How sweet of Liam Neeson and Jaume Collet-Serra.

[babz06]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yeah, I saw that already. And if the production budget is 30M, then the movie would be a flop if it only made 30M DOM. This is a Screen Gems African American-audience skewing thriller, and those are never money makers internationally. I went and checked what kind of OS business they tend to do, and out of the three "big" ones from the last few years, The Perfect Guy made the "most" with 3M OS. No Good Deed made around 1.7M, and When The Bough Breaks made less than 1M. I don't see Proud Mary doing much better than any of those just because it's an action movie (best case scenario, maybe 10-15M?), it still wouldn't be enough to cover marketing spends, even if they probably weren't very large for this movie.

 

And even actually good African American-skewing films like Hidden Figures and Get Out didn't have massive OS business anyway... not compared to their DOM incomes (HF did 66M OS vs. 169M DOM, GO did 78M vs. 175M DOM). Proud Mary supposedly not being good is only a bigger sinker for it.

 

@Blaze Heatnix Oh I don't care about PM flopping, no need to try lighten me up (though I appreciate it)  And like I explained, I don't think it's gonna do anything OS, so... yup.

african american starring films are not given full international releases so those grosses are misleading. Usually they only get released in UK/Australia and sometimes africa but rarely anywhere else. Also American skewing comedies/dramas rarely do well overseas so i dont think you should single out only black-led films. This has becomes a narrative that hollywood continues to push even though they know that films with black stars do not get the same publicity or marketing as other films. Thus it becomes a self-fulling prophecy. 

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Fair enough, I guess. In my mind, any movie that barely makes its budget back is closer to flop than success,

It is really right on the middle between the 2 imo. A flop is loosing a large amount of money relative to the budget a big success if often making a  around 14% ROI depending of the project, loosing a 15% or less is a bit the middle of the road between the 2 from my point of view.

[Mulder]

3 hours ago, grey ghost said:

Meh, it should've made 650 m based on the usual SW sequel drop.

 

Not too far off.

 

People overpredicted like crazy.

I'd buy into that if the OW reflected that but it didn't. It was only 17 million less then TFA. It's bad legs reflect audience reception more then anything else.

[titanic2187]

10 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I'd buy into that if the OW reflected that but it didn't. It was only 17 million less then TFA. It's bad legs reflect audience reception more then anything else.

Agree, I can clearly remember how people put Avatar on the menu when that 220m opening weekend happened, and almost none of us predicted it will go lower than 700m, let alone lower than titanic and JW.

 

If really a bunch of people went for 650m during its 220m, then only it is really "normal" number

[DAJK]

An elderly couple came to watch Star Wars, but I convinced them to watch Paddington 2 instead  They said they would come back for Star Wars this week anyways, Paddington would just be an extra film they saw. 

 

Just doing my part.

Edited January 13, 2018 by DAJK

[Barnack]

28 minutes ago, babz06 said:

african american starring films are not given full international releases so those grosses are misleading. Usually they only get released in UK/Australia and sometimes africa but rarely anywhere else. Also American skewing comedies/dramas rarely do well overseas so i dont think you should single out only black-led films. This has becomes a narrative that hollywood continues to push even though they know that films with black stars do not get the same publicity or marketing as other films. Thus it becomes a self-fulling prophecy. 

That may be true (and certainly is in good part true), but that mostly the point when talking about making prediction at the BO, that this movie will not get a wide world release with a good intl P&A, thus people not expecting anything close to say Atomic Blonde intl performance. It is predicting/expecting the usual self-fulling prophecy to occur for that movie, not saying that if it would have been good and getting the same release than Atomic blonde that it could not also have got close to 50M intl.

 

Also those movies often have part of the emotional punch that is base on regional reality even if they are in genre that can do well (say Get Out in horror or Hidden Figures in a total crowdpleaser dramedy)

[a2k]

52 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I still wouldn't say your 200M Post prediction was too crazy. At the time, it really did look like the movie could capture the zeitgeist and looked like it may be a perfect storm. 200 may have been just slightly high, but considering how the movie could still do 100M even though it's technically disappointing at the box office, says something. Don't take shit for that prediction

 

Paddington on the other hand, if it misses 50M I'm going to throw a fit

The 3-day could be around 11 so needs ~4.6x for 50 dom. P1 did 4x the 3-day (and 2.99x the MLK 4-day).

If the weather is indeed deflating stuff like Pro.BO claims then it could fight sequelitis and match P1's legs for 40 dom.

Guessing going above that could be tough.

[Rebeccas]

2 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

And, this is exactly why I think the ceiling for IX is what whatever TLJ finishes with DOM/OS/WW. I won't get into why the Skywalker Saga ending may not be that effective as a marketing idea. But, obviously, so far as we know, due to her passing, CF will not appear in this one. 

Right I mean I feel like TLJ

Spoiler

already killed the idea of this being a Skywalker Saga.

 

[Mod edit: tag spoilers please ]