Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[Johnny Tran]

I did not think TLJ would be down to 6th in mid January.  

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I did not think TLJ would be down to 6th in mid January.  

The unlimited power of WOM. 

[filmlover]

BOM just updated their schedule and says that Hostiles will now be opening wide on the 26th (and in 3,000 theaters still lol) instead of the 19th.

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

BOM just updated their schedule and says that Hostiles will now be opening wide on the 26th (and in 3,000 theaters still lol) instead of the 19th.

 

I actually welcome this because I still have like 5 other movies to see and 12 Strong/Thieves will both be shit.

Edited January 16, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[narniadis]

Good, that is only better for the Boxoffice as it spreads the "wealth" a bit....

 

oh wait, it doesn't matter where that film opens it is gonna BOMB!!

[forg]

The box office run of Jumanji and The Greatest Showman have been so fun to track. Star Wars still did great of course but that was expected so not as exciting to track unless it was pacing ahead of The Force Awakens.

 

Considering the tepid reaction to Pitch Perfect 3 (the soundtrack is not selling/streaming well) I think it was indeed a good move for Universal to screen it on December, it benefited from holidays so at least it's still going to gross in the 100M zone

Edited January 16, 2018 by forg

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

BOM just updated their schedule and says that Hostiles will now be opening wide on the 26th (and in 3,000 theaters still lol) instead of the 19th.

 

 

I think they are saying 3,000 publicly to make a splash, but they are only going to get about 2,000 and they know it.  

 

The other expansions are I, Tonya and I think that will go to around 800 theaters this week and then depending on Oscar nominations it will go between 1,000 - 1,500 locations on 1/26

 

Crazy that I, Tonya is likely going to make about $10m more than Molly's Game and shows you how one distributor can fuck up a release and another can knock it out of the park with similar films and material.  

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I think they are saying 3,000 publicly to make a splash, but they are only going to get about 2,000 and they know it.  

 

The other expansions are I, Tonya and I think that will go to around 800 theaters this week and then depending on Oscar nominations it will go between 1,000 - 1,500 locations on 1/26

 

Crazy that I, Tonya is likely going to make about $10m more than Molly's Game and shows you how one distributor can fuck up a release and another can knock it out of the park with similar films and material.  

I, Tonya is expected to be a much bigger player than Molly's Game at this point (plus Robbie is probably a bigger name than Chastain thanks to having more box office hits on her CV) so it making more doesn't seem that big of a shock. That said, Molly's Game has done well for itself, all things considered.

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I, Tonya is expected to be a much bigger player than Molly's Game at this point (plus Robbie is probably a bigger name than Chastain thanks to having more box office hits on her CV) so it making more doesn't seem that big of a shock. That said, Molly's Game has done well for itself, all things considered.

I mean crazy when you look at where both films were sitting at TIFF in September with one of them having a glitzy premiere that was very well received and the other film was deciding between Netflix and start up distributors for a low $ amount.  If you had to guess you would have said Molly's Game was locked for the much higher gross and I, Tonya would be lucky to see the inside of a theater.  

 

I completely agree now that I, Tonya is no surprise.  The rollout the film has had worked perfectly it seems like and with Oscars and the Olympics and solid word of mouth it is going to possibly be scraping $40m+

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

I mean crazy when you look at where both films were sitting at TIFF in September with one of them having a glitzy premiere that was very well received and the other film was deciding between Netflix and start up distributors for a low $ amount.  If you had to guess you would have said Molly's Game was locked for the much higher gross and I, Tonya would be lucky to see the inside of a theater.  

 

I completely agree now that I, Tonya is no surprise.  The rollout the film has had worked perfectly it seems like and with Oscars and the Olympics and solid word of mouth it is going to possibly be scraping $40m+

Theres a part of me that just would love to see Middle-America take off with it and bring it to 100m (be one of those WTF how did this make so much type films...) but I know it's not likely - 50m would be fantastic when all is said and done (not that 40m isn't).

[Chad Stevens]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

The unlimited power of WOM. 

I know, I have friends who haven't seen it saying "they've heard it sucked" 

It is the power of WOM

[EmpireCity]

28 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Theres a part of me that just would love to see Middle-America take off with it and bring it to 100m (be one of those WTF how did this make so much type films...) but I know it's not likely - 50m would be fantastic when all is said and done (not that 40m isn't).

Agreed.  

 

The movie is already a smash hit at what seems to be a lock of $30m considering the budget is reported it at $11m and Neon/30 West paid something like $5m for it.  If it hits $40m or $50m it will be a mega hit for everyone involved.  

[DAR]

Speaking of Hostiles I saw a FYC tv ad.  Considering the area it seemed a bit odd to run that around here

[a2k]

all time 4th weekends (top 20):

Spoiler

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross^	Date**
1	Avatar	Fox	$50,306,217	6.7%	3,422	$14,701	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$42,353,785	4.5%	4,134	$10,245	$936,662,225	12/18/15
3	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$36,686,871	5.9%	3,918	$9,364	$623,357,910	5/4/12
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$29,242,025	4.5%	3,737	$7,825	$652,270,625	6/12/15
5	Titanic	Par.	$28,716,310	4.8%	2,746	$10,458	$600,788,188	12/19/97
6	Spider-Man	Sony	$28,508,104	7.1%	3,876	$7,355	$403,706,375	5/3/02
7	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$28,125,000	9.6%	3,849	$7,307	$291,560,909	12/20/17
8	The Dark Knight	WB	$26,117,030	4.9%	4,025	$6,489	$533,345,358	7/18/08
9	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe	BV	$25,686,555	8.8%	3,853	$6,666	$291,710,957	12/9/05
10	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$25,632,861	5.9%	3,024	$8,476	$431,088,295	5/19/99
11	Wonder Woman	WB	$24,906,310	6.0%	3,933	$6,333	$412,563,408	6/2/17
12	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$24,488,436	6.7%	4,144	$5,909	$364,001,123	4/15/16
13	Monsters, Inc.	BV	$24,055,001	9.4%	3,649	$6,592	$255,873,250	11/2/01
14	Zootopia	BV	$24,022,288	7.0%	3,670	$6,546	$341,268,248	3/4/16
15	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$23,728,944	4.0%	4,232	$5,607	$595,556,584	12/15/17
16	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$23,652,605	4.7%	3,969	$5,959	$504,014,165	3/17/17
17	The Incredibles	BV	$23,580,279	9.0%	3,453	$6,828	$261,441,092	11/5/04
18	Up	BV	$23,492,677	8.0%	3,832	$6,131	$293,004,164	5/29/09
19	Shrek 2	DW	$23,316,920	5.3%	3,843	$6,067	$441,226,247	5/19/04
20	American Sniper	WB	$23,289,113	6.7%	3,885	$5,995	$350,126,372	1/16/15

 

Edited January 16, 2018 by a2knet

[BadAtGender]

The Greatest Showman is my jam. Loved it. 

[AndyK]

7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

The unlimited power of WOM. 

WOM is great, it has an A cinemascore 

[AndyK]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

I, Tonya is expected to be a much bigger player than Molly's Game at this point (plus Robbie is probably a bigger name than Chastain thanks to having more box office hits on her CV) so it making more doesn't seem that big of a shock. That said, Molly's Game has done well for itself, all things considered.

I can see why this would be the case, I saw MG at the weekend and its a difficult movie to follow for the average person because it has a lot of technicalities that need understanding in order to know what is going on. I was fine with it but the Mrs was getting a bit lost and I had to do a lot of explaining afterwards.

[The Gotham Bank]

Isn't the TLJ hold better than what most people make it out to be, considering the theater count drop tho? At least it feels that way to me. 

[Brainbug]

2 hours ago, The Gotham Bank said:

Isn't the TLJ hold better than what most people make it out to be, considering the theater count drop tho? At least it feels that way to me. 

 

Its certainly not collapsing. 48-52% drops are just not "good enough" for good late legs, they're fine for a blockbuster though. Some people here just want it to fall as hard as possible, so they take what they get. Hyperbole is just part of Box office discussions.

[Lordmandeep]

TLJ has gotten 2 50% drops in row and the number one reason is that interest in this SW film is fading very quickly as it was nothing special like TFA was.