The Mule | December 14 2018 | Clint Eastwood Directing and Starring | Bradley Cooper, Michael Pena, Dianne Wiest, Laurence Fishburne | Getting good reviews

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Slambros said:

This looks pretty good! A lot of people are going to want to see this! This is the fifth shoe-in candidate for an Original Screenplay nomination besides Green Book, Vice, Roma, and The Favourite!

The A24 movies (Eighth Grade, First Reformed) and Isle of Dogs likely have stronger chances than this does.

[Jonwo]

Looks solid, clearly WB are confident with it given it's going wide in December but I wonder if it might do more if they go for a limited release then wide in January. 

[TMP]

Feels like it could leg over $100m. Definitely a more commercial bet than Vice.

[LonePirate]

On 10/2/2018 at 10:23 AM, Valonqar said:

it looks like Thanksgiving to Xmas is full of adult skewing dramas, something's gotta sink:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody Nov 2

Girl In the Spider Web Nov 9 

Widows Nov 16

Creed 2 and Green Book Nov 21

The Mule Dec 14

Welcome to Marwen Dec 21

Vice Dec 25

 

And that's just wide releases. 

 

Girl, Green Book and Marwen are going nowhere except to mostly empty theaters.

 

Widows and Creed will split older and younger, respectively, so they will not cannibalize each other too much. 

 

There’s enough breathing room for the remaining films once you eliminate the three DOA films.

[filmlover]

Just now, LonePirate said:

Girl, Green Book and Marwen are going nowhere except to mostly empty theaters.

 

Widows and Creed will split older and younger, respectively, so they will not cannibalize each other too much. 

 

There’s enough breathing room for the remaining films once you eliminate the three DOA films.

Green Book won the Audience award at TIFF and is in play for multiple Oscar nominations. It'll do fine.

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

Girl, Green Book and Marwen are going nowhere except to mostly empty theaters.

 

Widows and Creed will split older and younger, respectively, so they will not cannibalize each other too much. 

 

There’s enough breathing room for the remaining films once you eliminate the three DOA films.

Green Room in gonna be big. It set TIFF on fire, everyone say it has amazing commercial potential because it's a total crowd pleaser. It could end bigger than Creed and Widows when all is said and done.

[LonePirate]

Green Book will get lost in the crowd. The noise surrounding Widows (and Creed 2, if it is as good as the first one) will drown out Green Room. It might perform respectedly if it sticks to a limited release and the art house circuit, provided Beale Street does not kill it a week later. If it goes wide, it will flounder during the Thanksgiving weekend due to the sheer number of higher profile films. 

Edited October 4, 2018 by LonePirate

[el sid]

Good trailer. Well played, emotional, exciting. Every time they stopped a sequence I wanted to know what will happen next. And not spoiling anything.

I also think it will be a (pretty big) hit which seems to be not so good for several other films I (also) wish luck. But as mentioned before there's theoretically still enough room for one hit more.

[Napoleon]

Great trailer.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Green Book will get lost in the crowd. The noise surrounding Widows (and Creed 2, if it is as good as the first one) will drown out Green Room. It might make perform respectedly if it sticks to a limited release and art house circuit, provided Beale Street does not kill it a week later. If it goes wide, it will flounder during the Thanksgiving weekend due to the sheer number of higher profile films. 

Movies can co-exist, ya know. Especially when the reviews/awards buzz is there. Widows doing well will not make Green Book suffer, especially when both movies are gonna be riding on their Oscar buzz as adult-friendly alternatives for people not interested in seeing Fantastic Beasts or Ralph Breaks the Internet.

 

Besides, Thanksgiving isn't that crowded. Ralph has no overlap, Creed 2 is a sequel to an established franchise, and Robin Hood is a bomb-in-waiting.  Nobody's saying Green Book is gonna be a blockbuster but a good opening (depending on how wide it launches) doesn't seem that hard based on what a crowd-pleaser it apparently is and the Oscar buzz it has.

Edited October 4, 2018 by filmlover

[LonePirate]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Movies can co-exist, ya know. Especially when the reviews/awards buzz is there. Widows doing well will not make Green Book suffer, especially when both movies are gonna be riding on their Oscar buzz as adult-friendly alternatives for people not interested in seeing Fantastic Beasts or Ralph Breaks the Internet.

Except there are too many films for it to co-exist with if it wants to break out. It is sandwiched between Widows and Beale Street with all three films going after the same type of adult audiences, with Green easily being the least high profile of the three. Then there are the two Boy films going after art house and adult audiences in November as well. It will lose buzz to all of those films and then the rest of the adult and awards films form a gauntlet against it in December. It is going to need considerable love from critics groups and the Golden Globes if it wants to survive. Its best move would be to hit 2-4 theaters during Christmas week and expand slowly in January in hopes that adult and awards savvy moviegoers will be seeking something fresh.

[Captain Craig]

The trailer does look promising. I just didn't have a solid enough hook, yet, to make me line this up for a theatrical viewing. Could change but Dec has a lot of draws. 

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Except there are too many films for it to co-exist with if it wants to break out. It is sandwiched between Widows and Beale Street with all three films going after the same type of adult audiences, with Green easily being the least high profile of the three. Then there are the two Boy films going after art house and adult audiences in November as well. It will lose buzz to all of those films and then the rest of the adult and awards films form a gauntlet against it in December. It is going to need considerable love from critics groups and the Golden Globes if it wants to survive. Its best move would be to hit 2-4 theaters during Christmas week and expand slowly in January in hopes that adult and awards savvy moviegoers will be seeking something fresh.

1. Beale Street is opening in NY/LA on November 30 and likely isn't going wide until Christmas (or more likely after New Year's with the plethora of new releases that are now locked to play on Christmas). So not a threat to Green Book.

 

2. What's the other Boy movie in November besides Boy Erased (which will not be that big to begin with even if it ends up major contender)? Cause if you're referring to Beautiful Boy, that won't be a threat at all (it's going wide-ish in its second weekend on October 19 and will be long gone from theaters by then, especially when it's RT score is dropping and will probably finish in "Rotten" territory). So, also not a threat to Green Book.

 

Multiple adult/awards-driven movies can survive the holidays at once, they just need the buzz and the reviews to make it.

Edited October 4, 2018 by filmlover

[DAJK]

Don't think it'll quite match Gran Torino just due to how packed Christmas is. But Eastwood has done extremely well at the box office lately, so 100M wouldn't surprise me. 

[CoolioD1]

1 hour ago, Slambros said:

This looks pretty good! A lot of people are going to want to see this! This is the fifth shoe-in candidate for an Original Screenplay nomination besides Green Book, Vice, Roma, and The Favourite!

it's based on an article apparently so nope.

[WittyUsername]

You have to give Clint Eastwood some major props for being able to direct films on a yearly basis at his age. 

[Eric Duncan]

Controversial take: Green Book will make more than Widows or Creed.

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

it's based on an article apparently so nope.

 

Oh. I sort of assumed it was Original because I couldn't see an adapted work listed on its WikiPedia page...

[CoolioD1]

8 minutes ago, Slambros said:

 

Oh. I sort of assumed it was Original because I couldn't see an adapted work listed on its WikiPedia page...

i read that it's based on an article.... on the wikipedia page.

[antovolk]

del

Edited October 4, 2018 by antovolk