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Weekend Thread: 50SF - 38.8m, PR - 25m, 15:17 - 12.6m

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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

A bit strange that you got Tonya this weekend when the PTA was pretty poor last week.

Exactly, I mean Olympics had something to do with it for sure. I predicted much lower for the week than my manager, and I was only off tonight on our attendance by like 20 people

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Deadline's weekend estimates http://deadline.com/2018/02/fifty-shades-freed-peter-rabbit-1517-to-paris-weekend-box-office-1202283099/

 

1) Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 3,768 theaters  / $18.4M Fri (includes $5.6m previews)/3-day: $40.3M /Wk 1

2) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,725 theaters  / $5.7M Fri /3-day: $22M /Wk 1

3) The 15:17 to Paris (WB), 3042 theaters  / $3.7M Fri /3-day: $12.6M /Wk 1

4) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle  (SONY), 3,126 theaters (-226) / $2.2M Fri /3-day: $9.6M (-12%)/Total:$365.4M/ Wk 8

5) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 2,373 theaters (-215) / $1.6m Fri  / 3-day: $6.1M (-20%)/Total: $146.2M/Wk 8

6) Maze Runner: Death Cure (FOX), 2,923 theaters (-870) / $1.45M Fri /3-day: $5.7M (-45%) /Total: $48.7M/Wk 3

7) Winchester (CBS), 2,480 theaters  / $1.4M Fri (-61%) /3-day: $4.7M(-49%)/Total: $16.8M/Wk 2

8) The Post  (FOX/DW), 1,865 theaters (-597) / $863K  Fri  /3-day:$3.3M (-37%)/Total: $72.6M/Wk 8

9) The Shape of Water  (FSL), 1,780 theaters (-561)  / $780K Fri /3-day: $3M (-33%)/Total: $49.7M/Wk 11

10) Den of Thieves (STX), 1,468 theaters (-644)/ $733K Fri /3-day: $2.7M (-40%) /Total: $40.8M/Wk 4

Edited by MaxAggressor
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Pretty much exactly what I expected for the three openers. Fifty Shades just a shade over 40M, Peter Rabbit over 20 and 15:17 in the low teens. Shades will probably sneak past 100M DOM (Valentine's Day + President's Day 4-day weekend will probably help its legs and then it's gonna limp past the mark) and 300+ WW; Peter Rabbit might have a 75-80M DOM/180-200M WW shot (wom doesn't seem horrible right now); and 15:17.... well, that one will probably top out at just over 30M DOM, but OS will definitely save it (it clearly has stronger OS appeal than DOM, and it only has a 30M budget, according to The Numbers), so we're looking at something in the vincinity of 70-80M WW for that, I think. All in all, all three are looking to be either hits or "not bombs", at least worldwide.

 

Jumanji and TGS having bigger drops than I thought they would, probably due to the three new openers. That being said, if "bigger than I thought they would" is 12% and 20% respectively, than that's when you know that these runs have been fucking amazing :rofl:

 

The Shape Of Water is also having a very solid run, will probably end up as the 4th biggest BP contender this year (after Dunkirk, Get Out and The Post). Searchlight still has it, between this and Three Billboards (which is closing in on 100M WW... Three fucking Billboards is closing in on 100M WW. That's madness).

 

Maze Runner, The Post and Den Of Thieves also having solid drops.

 

Winchester having a sub-50% drop (well, 49%, but nevertheless) is surprising, even against the low opening. Let's see if it holds like that until actuals.

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3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Pretty much exactly what I expected for the three openers. Fifty Shades just a shade over 40M, Peter Rabbit over 20 and 15:17 in the low teens. Shades will probably sneak past 100M DOM (Valentine's Day + President's Day 4-day weekend will probably help its legs and then it's gonna limp past the mark) and 300+ WW; Peter Rabbit might have a 75-80M DOM/180-200M WW shot (wom doesn't seem horrible right now); and 15:17.... well, that one will probably top out at just over 30M DOM, but OS will definitely save it (it clearly has stronger OS appeal than DOM, and it only has a 30M budget, according to The Numbers), so we're looking at something in the vincinity of 70-80M WW for that, I think. All in all, all three are looking to be either hits or "not bombs", at least worldwide.

 

Jumanji and TGS having bigger drops than I thought they would, probably due to the three new openers. That being said, if "bigger than I thought they would" is 12% and 20% respectively, than that's when you know that these runs have been fucking amazing :rofl:

 

The Shape Of Water is also having a very solid run, will probably end up as the 4th biggest BP contender this year (after Dunkirk, Get Out and The Post). Searchlight still has it, between this and Three Billboards (which is closing in on 100M WW... Three fucking Billboards is closing in on 100M WW. That's madness).

 

Maze Runner, The Post and Den Of Thieves also having solid drops.

 

Winchester having a sub-50% drop (well, 49%, but nevertheless) is surprising, even against the low opening. Let's see if it holds like that until actuals.

 

Some of the lower drops this weekend are due to films being muted last Sunday.  Many had 70% Sunday drops so this is just a bit of a market correction.  Any other second weekend and Winchester would have fallen north of 50%, still a good hold.

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'Jumanji' is a monster, these holds are amazing. TOP 5 stories of 2017 would be: 'Jumanji', 'Wonder Woman', 'Get Out', 'The Greatest Showman' and 'Beauty and the Beast' (504m DOM in March for a Live Action movie is amazing)  

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Next week my closest theatre is having showtimes for classic movies such as 'The Godfather' and 'Silence of the Lambs'. I am planing to go on Monday for 'Silence of the Lambs', 'The Godfather' on Tuesday and 'Black Panther' on Wednesday, perfect week. 

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47 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

Next week my closest theatre is having showtimes for classic movies such as 'The Godfather' and 'Silence of the Lambs'. I am planing to go on Monday for 'Silence of the Lambs', 'The Godfather' on Tuesday and 'Black Panther' on Wednesday, perfect week. 

 

Yeah, I wouldn't count out the possibility that the transition from The Godfather and Silence of the Lambs to Black Panther actually feels seamless in terms of quality filmmaking.

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