BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[Lordmandeep]

3 minutes ago, Hades said:

The Only thing dead are romantic comedies.We have seen huge lower budget breakouts in recent years. A few good shows, Adam Sandler comedies and films like Bright /Cloverfield are not enough distraction to stop people going to watch films at the cinema. 

People will go to the cinema to watch BP IW and other major tentpoles but the crowd that is going to the cinema each weekend or month is getting smaller and we saw a huge fall in admissions last year.

 

As Disney further dominates the market you will see a greater shift of more box office to just tentpoles.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[MCKillswitch123]

My reaction when I saw that number:

 

 

If it hits 25M for the Thursday, it's probably gonna do 180+ for the 3-day (or close to that). RI-DI-CU-LOUS.

[Hades]

7 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

People will go to the cinema to watch BP IW and other major tentpoles but the crowd that is going to the cinema each weekend or month is getting smaller and we saw a huge fall in admissions last year.

 

As Disney further dominates the market you will see a greater shift of more box office to just tentpoles.

Its not just Disney... I hear WB released a horror 100 mil opener in September, of all months. Fox released an r-rated 100 opener in FEB 16. The non mega budget films are not going anywhere. Breakouts will always happen.

 

The streamers don't have enough cinema killers yet. Stuff like Bright won't cut it. 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

That preview number is insane!  I know Deep Wang called it but to see it happen is crazy. 

Also audience score on IMDB is up to 7.5 (from 6.6) and 77% on RT (should go up based on the positive reception). 

[That One Girl]

4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

@That One Guy @WrathOfHan Give me your weekend predictions, Daddies!

 

9 hours ago, That One Guy said:

$24M

$65.5M ($89.5M OD)

$80.4M

$63.7M

 

$233.6M OW

 

This isn't even unrealistic btw.  It's following Deadpool's drops with The Great Wall's Sunday drop since Deadpool's Sunday was inflated with Valentine's Day

 

Let’s update with:

 

$25M

$68.3M ($93.3M OW)

$83.8M

$66.4M

 

$243.5M OW.  If it only drop -19% on Sunday, it gets to $245M OW.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

 

Let’s update with:

 

$25M

$68.3M ($93.3M OW)

$83.8M

$66.4M

 

$243.5M OW.  If it only drop -19% on Sunday, it gets to $245M OW.

That would be quite something. Would set the Saturday record by a very big margin. I think we’re pretty much capped at 70 until we get more inflation/more premium formats 

[Son Tung M-TP]

^That Friday number is almost as big as Justice League's opening weekend 

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, Son Tung M-TP said:

^That Friday number is almost as big as Justice League's opening weekend 

Yes. JL comparison never stopped being funny to me. BP will beat JL dom in 4-6 days. There are currently two movies opening in china this w/e that will beat JL dom in under a week with one might earn more in china than JL worldwide total.

[fabiopazzo2]

I need the Numbers 

[a2k]

Looking at Civil War which being a tri-qeul and with addition of big characters, should be more front-loaded than BP:

25

50.5 // 75.5 od

61.2 (+21%/-19%)

42.4 (-31%) // Sunday nights must be weaker due to working Monday

13.3 (-69%) // normal Monday

 

Despite some front-loading guessing BP at least behaves like,

25

60 // 85 od

70 (+17%/-18%)

52.5 (-25%) //  207.5 3-day

27.5 (-48%) //  235 4-day

[IronJimbo]

52 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

It proves the pushback against TLJ was far greater then MRA and alt right.

Where are those who overrated the power of trolls now?

[FantasticBeasts]

I am genuinely asking simply because I don't have a clue:

why is BP expcted to be a bit backloaded for a cbm?

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I am genuinely asking simply because I don't have a clue:

why is BP expcted to be a bit backloaded for a cbm?

not a sequel, I think it will be front loaded though.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I am genuinely asking simply because I don't have a clue:

why is BP expcted to be a bit backloaded for a cbm?

Deep Wang’s data from earlier in the week seem to indicate that BP’s % of presales for opening night was lower than the last 4 100+ mil MCU films. So at least for advanced tickets, it appears to be more backloaded 

Edited February 16, 2018 by The Fast and the Furiosa

[Valonqar]

BP is a perfect storm boxoffice that we boxoffice enthusiasts live for. Like all perfect storm movies, it's gonna post some big numbers, the bigger the better cause we all want to witness the history in making. With 200M+ 4 day being a forgone conclusion, 400M+ is a done deal. We can only watch in awe how high it'll go from there. With empty slate in terms of competition, the sky's the limit. Truly great start of 2018! 

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I am genuinely asking simply because I don't have a clue:

why is BP expcted to be a bit backloaded for a cbm?

 

3 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Deep Wang’s data from earlier in the week seem to indicate that BP’s % of presales for opening night was lower than the last 4 100+ mil MCU films. So at least for advanced tickets, it appears to be more backloaded 

 

That and it’s having phenomenal WOM

[The Panda]

I wondering if this will Be preview heavy or not.  If it’s not, then we’re in for an even crazier weekend than I thought

[The Panda]

Ummm, why is Samson and Early man out of the title???? 

[Arlborn]

This is pretty much proves that if you market and make them just right people will always be showing up for superhero movies. Fatigue will never really be a problem if the overall quality of CBMs stays where it is.

 

In 10 years I wonder if any studio will even bother to make any original blockbusters besides the odd Nolan or The Rock movie

 

I guess they could start appealing to China more, that's where the money is after all.

 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Arlborn

[CoolioD1]

i haven't read the thread yet what page are the samson numbers on?