BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/

Monday AM writethru after 12:05AM post: Disney has verified this morning what we saw in the middle of the night, that T’Challa recorded the second-best Sunday ever at the domestic B.O., however with $60.1M (higher than the industry’s $59.55M estimate last night), ranking behind the all-time record held by Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($60.5M on Dec. 20, 2015). This now pushes Black Panther to a 3-day of $201.8M; still the 5th best domestic opening of all-time after 2012’s Avengers ($207.4M)

 

Disney does see Black Panther making $235M over four-days which means it will beat the Friday-Monday hauls of of Avengers ($226.3M) and Jurassic World ($234.1M). But there are those in the industry who believe that T’Challa has a shot to be the second-highest 4-day opener ever with as much as $242M-$245M behind Star Wars: Force Awakens ($288M) and taking out Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($241.6M).

In order for Black Panther to claw his way to that height, it would mean that Monday’s ease from Sunday would range between -30% to -32% or $40.3M to $41.75M. Disney’s projections this morning figure today will decline -45% from Sunday, in which case Presidents Day would yield $33.2M for a $235M  FSSM.

 

Seems like a pretty reasonable projection from Disney. I will go with $238-239m for the 4-day, which would mean a $36.2-37.2m gross on Monday. That's a drop of 38.1% to 39.8%, which would be great.

[filmlover]

Will be interesting to see how long it stays at #1. The only thing that could really challenge it the weeks ahead is A Wrinkle in Time, but I doubt that's going higher than $40-45M.

[bladels]

#8 Fri, #4 Sat, #2 Sun. Seeing the trend? BP is going for #1 Mon of all time 

[VGPOP]

Mother of God.

 

 

[LonePirate]

13 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Don't be surprised if IW is under BP's total.  I said it before this weekend happened,  it's not Monday morning quarterbacking. 

I think that is pretty much a given now. BP has no real competition for weeks. IW faces two competitors in May that will significantly weaken its legs. IW is certainly not the cultural event, either. Depending on reception to The Incredibles II, BP stands a great chance of being the highest grossing film of the year. 

[a2k]

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2018/02/16	1	$75,808,000		4,020	$18,858	$75,808,000	1
2018/02/17	1	$65,893,000	-13%	4,020	$16,391	$141,701,000	2
2018/02/18	1	$60,096,000	-9%	4,020	$14,949	$201,797,000	3
2018/02/19	1	$33,203,000	-45%	4,020	$8,259	$235,000,000	4

[RandomCat]

...It's so weird that even 200 seemed out of reach a week ago. Way to go BP.

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

Will be interesting to see how long it stays at #1. The only thing that could really challenge it the weeks ahead is A Wrinkle in Time, but I doubt that's going higher than $40-45M.

I think three weeks is more likely unless Wrinkle flops which I think is unlikely.  

[Johnny Tran]

I think this is going to do a lot of repeat business.  The pacing is perfect.  It didn't feel well over two hours;  there's no part where it drags,  there's not anything like a certain scene in TLJ where it takes audiences out of the movie.  You can go with your friends,   then go with the kids or the nephews,  there's something for everyone.  

[redfirebird2008]

It will be fun tracking this one next to Last Jedi and Avengers.

[Chad Stevens]

Diversity is the Key!

If Disney wants to bring Star Wars back from the dead they might want to re-think themselves. 

[Giesi]

Good lord, the numbers are mind-boggling 

over TLJ is locked, this is gonna be a WOM juggernaut, 3,0+ multiplier

[Avatree]

Greatest Showman -3.0%

Jumanji -0.2%

 

these beautiful, sexy legs. DwaROCK and Huge Action are killing it. They will run forever. 

[a2k]

Going conservative with legs and using Disney's potentially low-balled Sunday, it still gets into TDK territory.

 

235 4-day

+20 (-40%)

+13.5 (-32.5%)

+12 (-11%)

= 280.5 week 1

 

85 2nd weekend (-58%)

= 280.5 + 85 = 365.5

 

28.5 Mon-Thu (DP did 21+)

= 365.5 + 28.5 = 394

 

41 3rd weekend (-52%)

 = 394 + 41 = 435

 

435 + 41*2.4 = 533 (DP added 2.50x the 3rd weekend to it's cume)

 

Realistically at least low-mid 540s should happen imo.

Edited February 19, 2018 by a2knet

[MikeQ]

Among wide releases, Black Panther’s opening weekend PTA of $50,198 is bested only by the two Star Wars movies. 

 

No wonder everyone has been saying theatres are packed!

 

Peace,

Mike

[Giesi]

1 minute ago, Chad Stevens said:

Diversity is the Key!

If Disney wants to bring Star Wars back from the dead they might want to re-think themselves. 

If €620M is considered dead now, Hollywood is fucking lifeless

Edited February 19, 2018 by Giesi

[Chad Stevens]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

235 4-day

+35 Tue-Thu = 270 1 week

+85 2nd Weekend = 365 10-day

+20 Mon-Thu = 385 2 weeks

+40 3rd weekend = 425 20-day

+ 2.5-3*40 = 100-120 more = 525-545 dom

higher.....

 

645 is my guess... Legs will be better than normal. This will have people seeing it more than once.  I've seen it three times already and now I'm dragging my wife...

Edited February 19, 2018 by Chad Stevens

[MaxAggressor]

 

[Alexiswills12]

10 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2018/02/16	1	$75,808,000		4,020	$18,858	$75,808,000	1
2018/02/17	1	$65,893,000	-13%	4,020	$16,391	$141,701,000	2
2018/02/18	1	$60,096,000	-9%	4,020	$14,949	$201,797,000	3
2018/02/19	1	$33,203,000	-45%	4,020	$8,259	$235,000,000	4

Disney is playing jokes now. No way it goes from a 9 drop to 45 today. No way

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Diversity is the Key!

If Disney wants to bring Star Wars back from the dead they might want to re-think themselves.