Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

[Ms Lady Hawk]

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/wrinkle-in-time-black-panther-friday-box-office-1202722840/

 

Variety has WiT at ~13 million and Panther at 9m+.

 

36-39 projected for BP

 

37 for WiT with possibly as high as 41.

Edited March 9, 2018 by Ms Lady Hawk

[MCKillswitch123]

And on a fell swoop, everything changed

 

I'm actually impressed at the legit possibility of AWIT hitting 40+. Didn't think it would have enough momentum for that. 40+ OW would give it a very serious 100M DOM chance, since, besides Sherlock Gnomes, there wouldn't be any family competition in its way. Once again proof that movies w/strong African American-audience appeal always do better whan what we think they'll do (Compton, Get Out, Creed, Figures, Panther, etc.), which is by no means a bad thing at all; as a matter of fact, it's exciting to witness. Now granted, even 100M+ DOM probably wouldn't be THAT great given the production budget, but if it can make an extra 100-150M OS, that'd put it 2x the prod. budget and probably would be enough for Disney to call it a safe day, even if not a very lucrative one. It wouldn't be an Alice 2-Tomorrowland-BFG-Carter-Ranger proportions megabomb by any means.

 

Sad that Panther doesn't get to fourpeat, though, but it's not all over for BP if its Friday is higher than the current range. Doesn't really matter that much though, because if it stopped its WW run right now, it would still be a cosmic success for Marvel either way. The fact that by Sunday, it'll be at over 1 billion WW and 550M DOM, is completely insane.

 

Strangers 2 doing 10-12M, also over expectations, proves that even shitty, poorly marketed horror that supposedly no one cares about is always going to have a presence at the box office. I believe the budget is 5M, so there you go, whatever studio distributed this. You just made your money back. Hurray.

 

The highlight of the weekend, though.... Red Sparrow. If it actually not only makes sub-50% 2nd weekend, but actually can make sub-45% (and over 10M), that would be incredible. For a movie like RS - a long, violent, graphic and (according to some) confusing spy thriller - to hit a 2nd weekend of that caliber, that's astonishing.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I haven't yet though I like the Night Manager novel quite a bit

 

The Little Drummer Girl is my favorite Le Carre novel but the movie was completely miscast rubbish - hopefully the upcoming min-series will be good though Alexander Skarsgard as Becker has me rolling my eyes.

 

 

I have faith in The Little Drummer Girl, same team as The Night Manager and has a great cast. Park Chan-wook directing is also what pips my interest

[AniNate]

12 minutes ago, HerediTele said:

 

It's not "based on a classic story", it's an adaptation from a novel with a very specific tone and approach that isn't much at all like your typical Disney-created story. I know the difference is subtle, but it's huge -- that's why I object so much to Disney inserting their corporate name into the title (or near the title), as if it's somehow theirs, as opposed to just an adaptation.

Well, you have to concede that their adaptations tend to have a fairly consistent visual and tonal aesthetic to them, and the corporate branding is part of the reason they draw the kind of attention they do.

 

If Ava went to Warner or Sony with it, I suspect they would've had a lot more difficulty promoting it.  

 

 

Edited March 9, 2018 by tribefan695

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

MadMax Fury road vs Pitch Perfect 3 gender audience split is the extreme example of what you mean.

 

Red Sparrow as barely more action in it than say The Post, about Bridge of Spies level.

 

I think a lot of women responded to the pro-matriarchy message underneath a lot of the dude-bro action in MMFR. Something like LUCY fits better, IMO.

[CoolioD1]

wow i can't believe no one here has seen undercover brother.

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Are those really movies for women though?  I mean, yes, they star women, but it's the same spy thriller movie concept...not all that huge an interest area for most women (I mean, I like them, but I don't go out of my way to see them in theaters)...

Exactly. Resident Evil and Underworld didn't only target "female audiences" either, just because they had female leads.

[Jonwo]

I do wonder about AWIT's OS chances, the novel isn't as well known compared to the US. 

[MrGamer]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

wow i can't believe no one here has seen undercover brother.

[Dementeleus]

2 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Well, you have to concede that their adaptations tend to have a fairly consistent visual and tonal aesthetic to them

 

This is a bad thing!  And it's usually to the detriment of the material, both in terms of how it's perceived as a movie and in terms of the original story. (Most of the time, now, they're just remaking their own spin on an old story anyway).

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, HerediTele said:

 

This is a bad thing!  And it's usually to the detriment of the material, both in terms of how it's perceived as a movie and in terms of the original story. (Most of the time, now, they're just remaking their own spin on an old story anyway).

I agree. But in that sense I think it's better off if you accept it as "Disney's A Wrinkle in Time" rather than "A Wrinkle in Time". 

[Avatree]

18 minutes ago, commendable said:

Wow you are right i really need to watch some more spy films. I guess the only real one i have watched is manchurian

Go watch red sparrow while it's in the cinema.

[DAJK]

13 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I do wonder about AWIT's OS chances, the novel isn't as well known compared to the US. 

Google trends is sometimes interesting for that. WiT has mostly created searches in US/Canada/other English speaking countries. Meanwhile United States isn't even in the top 5 for Pacific Rim

 

And then there's ready Player one, who's buzz recently is lower than when the trailers were released

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, HerediTele said:

 

I think a lot of women responded to the pro-matriarchy message underneath a lot of the dude-bro action in MMFR. Something like LUCY fits better, IMO.

Fury Road audience was 60/40 male (opening weekend at least), just to show that while the message can appear to be attractive the content/presentation/energy, etc... is also important, you are right that Atomic Blonde/Red Sparrow are not particularly aiming at woman.

 

Atomic Blonde was 52% male , 48% female (it was a bit John Wick action audience heavy)

47%M - 53%F for Red Sparrow

Proud Mary was 32%M-68%F

[TalismanRing]

19 minutes ago, HerediTele said:

 

I think a lot of women responded to the pro-matriarchy message underneath a lot of the dude-bro action in MMFR. Something like LUCY fits better, IMO.

Opening w/e - MMFR had a 70-30 M/F split though -  almost the exact reverse of PP2's 75/25 (F/M)

 

Pro Matriarchy as in if you're hot and young you (mostly) live, if you're old and not you die. 

 

Edited March 9, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Dementeleus]

13 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I agree. But in that sense I think it's better off if you accept it as "Disney's A Wrinkle in Time" rather than "A Wrinkle in Time". 

 

I can't. I won't.  

 

I accept it as an adaptation. I might like it (or dislike it) as such. But I can't swing around to giving them a full creative ownership of the story.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

And then there's ready Player one, who's buzz recently is lower than when the trailers were released

WB are ramping up marketing for RPO starting with SXSW and I imagine we'll be getting reactions fairly soon. I wonder when WB will show the junkets and B-Roll? 

Edited March 9, 2018 by Jonwo

[Dementeleus]

@TalismanRing @Barnack -- fair enough given that it was a sequel to an action dude-bro series, and during opening weekend in particular, would be perceived as such.

[CoolioD1]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Meanwhile United States isn't even in the top 5 for Pacific Rim

 

it really seems like the US isn't WAR READY

[Barnack]

17 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I do want AWiT to do well so Disney doesn't exclusively make remakes with their live action division. $40M+ would be a good start and better than Tomorrowland which cost way more to make.

The size of Tomorrowland flop was not just how much it did cost to make, but how giant that movie promotion was (2 year's long, superbowl, park attraction made for it, etc...)