Weekend thread | Deadline Friday Est. (p.11) ~ PR:U 10.1M, BP 4.4M, ICOI 3.7M, TR 2.8M, SG 2.7M, AWIT 2.1M, L,S 2.3M, P,AOC 1.5M, MS 1.45M, GN 1.2M, U 1.3M

[WrathOfHan]

Isle of Dogs' expansion schedule: http://deadline.com/2018/03/isle-of-dogs-wes-anderson-stanley-tucci-final-portrait-specialty-box-office-preview-1202352241/

 

Next week: 150-175

April 6: 450-550

April 13: 1,750+

Edited March 25, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[MaxAggressor]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Why on earth would it drop that much? It should still be ahead of TFA's TC next weekend (would have to lose 850+ screens, doubt it just because of RPO) and TFA faced a higher grossing opener in its 7th weekend than RPO is likely to be and still dropped 20%. 7th weekend drops have historically been some of the lightest for every single one of the top 10 DOM grossers, even TLJ. The worst one is JW's -37%. I don't see a drop of more than 30%.

BP has dropped more than Deadpool's in the last 2 weekends against legit 'action big budget action movie' (Tomb Raider & Pacific Rim: Uprising) competition.

 

	Deadpool	Black Panther
Weekend 5	34.6%	34.5%
Weekend 6	26.8%	37%
Weekend 7	38.9% (BvS)	??? (RPO)

 

What works in BP's favor is that DP will start getting it's spring break inflated weekdays which will impact the weekend gross But the effect should be minimal what with Deadpool being an 'R' rated movie. BvS is also a much bigger competition than what RPO will be so BP has an advantage there. Still, a weekend drop of 30%+ seems like a very likely outcome.

[Jonwo]

48 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, I must say it's looking to be a mega bomb OS. Rare to see a 90m+ DOM grosser do so bad OS, especially coming from a studio like Disney.

It's hardly surprising though, the book it's based on isn't well known OS and apart from the UK premiere, they barely promoted it OS.

[WrathOfHan]

Demo breakdowns:

 

Isle of Dogs:

 

A CinemaScore from private polling

60% of the audience is under 30

 

Pacific Rim:

 

64/36 gender split in favor of males

47% of the audience is under 25

78% of the audience is positive about the film

Men over and under 25 accounted for 31% of the audience each

Women over 25 accounted for 22% while under 25 accounted for 14%

 

Sherlock Gnomes:

 

54% of the audience is under 18, who gave it an A-

42% of the audience is over 25

4% of the audience is between 18-24

 

Midnight Sun:

 

82/18 gender split in favor of females

66% of the audience is under 25 (holy shit maybe I should see this @That One Guy)

33% showed up for Bella Thorne

 

Unsane:

 

53/47 gender split in favor of males

25% of the audience is under 25, who gave it a B

Edited March 25, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[That One Girl]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

66% of the audience is under 25 (holy shit maybe I should see this @That One Guy)

 

 

dew it

[WrathOfHan]

That is a pretty big younger skew on Isle of Dogs. Obviously college students are a significant portion of Anderson's fanbase, but that bodes well for April 13. The PG-13 rating might not be a deterrent. 

[Zakiyyah6]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

It's hardly surprising though, the book it's based on isn't well known OS and apart from the UK premiere, they barely promoted it OS.

They barely promoted a 100mil dollar film overseas??? If true Disney knew that it sucked. They were under no illusions about the film.

[a2k]

Just checked PRU's numbers. Surprised. Had a better internal multiplier than Tomb Raider!

28*2.5 = 70 dom?

 

But looks like PRU won't beat BP's ~105 total in China...which is pretty shocking.

 

70 dom + 100 china = 170

 

How is OS-China looking?

[Jake Gittes]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Isle of Dogs' expansion schedule: http://deadline.com/2018/03/isle-of-dogs-wes-anderson-stanley-tucci-final-portrait-specialty-box-office-preview-1202352241/

 

Next week: 150-175

April 6: 450-550

April 13: 1,750+

I can see it doing around $4m next weekend, $5m the weekend after, over $6m on the April 13 weekend, before it starts dropping. Would allow for a finish in the mid-30s, with a shot at 40m.  

[a2k]

10.4; -56% is good for TR's 2nd weekend. These days for a video game adaptation or CBM 56% drop is no big deal. Had good weekdays too. Also is looking at a strong 75-80 total in China.

 

60-65 dom + 75-80 china = 135-145. Haven't looked at OS-China but is set of 2.5x+ it's prod budget ww even using the 106 rumor from Deadline. 

 

EDIT: Looks like OS-China is ~105. If it gets to 150 OS-China 300 ww could happen.

Edited March 25, 2018 by a2knet

[Zakiyyah6]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

10.4; -56% is good for TR's 2nd weekend. These days for a video game adaptation or CBM 56% drop is no big deal. Had good weekdays too. Also is looking at a strong 75-80 total in China.

60-65 dom + 75-80 china = 135-145. Haven't looked at OS-China but is set of 2.5x+ it's prod budget ww even using the 106 rumor from Deadline.

A 56% drop for a film that only opened with 23.5mil is bad. A 56% drop for a film that opens with 100+ mil is fine provided the film recovers. You can't compare the two things. RPO will cause another big drop next weekend by the way. Nothing about the domestic numbers are okay.

Edited March 25, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[WrathOfHan]

I'm going to attempt an Isle of Dogs forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 800k (2.4M Total)

Mar 30: 4.1M (2.8M weekdays, 9.3M Total)

Apr 6: 4.5M (2.7M weekdays, 16.5M Total)

Apr 13: 8M (3.5M weekdays, 28M Total)

Apr 20: 6.5M (2.6M weekdays, 37.1M Total)

Apr 27: 4.6M (1.8M weekdays, 43.5M Total)

May 4: 3.6M (1.3M weekdays, 48.4M Total)

May 11: 2.8M (900k weekdays, 52.1M Total)

May 18: 1.7M (500k weekdays, 54.3M Total)

May 25: 800k (400k weekdays, 55.5M Total)

Final Total: 58M

 

This is going to behave so fucking weirdly at the box office. It'll have the Friday increases of a very old skewing movie yet the Saturday increases of a kids movie  That or families really go for it and it just behaves like a kids movie.

[Jake Gittes]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm going to attempt an Isle of Dogs forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 800k (2.4M Total)

Mar 30: 4.1M (2.8M weekdays, 9.3M Total)

Apr 6: 4.5M (2.7M weekdays, 16.5M Total)

Apr 13: 8M (3.5M weekdays, 28M Total)

Apr 20: 6.5M (2.6M weekdays, 37.1M Total)

Apr 27: 4.6M (1.8M weekdays, 43.5M Total)

May 4: 3.6M (1.3M weekdays, 48.4M Total)

May 11: 2.8M (900k weekdays, 52.1M Total)

May 18: 1.7M (500k weekdays, 54.3M Total)

May 25: 800k (400k weekdays, 55.5M Total)

Final Total: 58M

 

This is going to behave so fucking weirdly at the box office. It'll have the Friday increases of a very old skewing movie yet the Saturday increases of a kids movie  That or families really go for it and it just behaves like a kids movie.

Those weekdays post-March 30/April 6/April 13 are crazy dude. They'd happen in July, maybe, but not this time of year. 

[MovieMan89]

Stop motion is in desperate need of something that can at least crack 50m DOM and 100 WW, so I really hope Isle of Dogs can do it. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

Those weekdays post-March 30/April 6/April 13 are crazy dude. They'd happen in July, maybe, but not this time of year. 

And that's where it becomes hard to predict. We really don't have a sense of how older and younger skewing it'll be when it goes wide.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Stop motion is in desperate need of something that can at least crack 50m DOM and 100 WW, so I really hope Isle of Dogs can do it. 

It's getting released in China on April 20; maybe it'll breakout there?

[intenso]

15 minutes ago, a2knet said:

10.4; -56% is good for TR's 2nd weekend. These days for a video game adaptation or CBM 56% drop is no big deal. Had good weekdays too. Also is looking at a strong 75-80 total in China.

 

60-65 dom + 75-80 china = 135-145. Haven't looked at OS-China but is set of 2.5x+ it's prod budget ww even using the 106 rumor from Deadline. 

 

EDIT: Looks like OS-China is ~105. If it gets to 150 OS-China 300 ww could happen.

It will definitely get a sequel. They can't ignore these fantastic numbers for it. Potential that the sequel will do better with Alicia established in the sequel is also pretty big.

[SLAM!]

Pacific Rim: Uprising did a little better than expected, but it's got an uphill battle if it wants to seem legitimate. This would feel like a better gross if the budget wasn't as inflated.

 

Black Panther simply isn't dying, and that's an exciting thing for sure; I do wish the grosses had been just a little more evenly distributed, but Black Panther is a film that really deserves its massive success.

 

This is an outstanding hold for I Can Only Imagine, one that reminds me of the leg-driven success of War Room in 2015. I believe in the possibility that there were more children watching this than Sherlock Gnomes this weekend.

 

Speaking of Sherlock Gnomes, I think the film was very lucky to break $10,000,000. I think the film can have a little longevity until April 13th when the triple threat of Rampage, Sgt. Stubby, and Isle of Dogs shoos it away.

 

I don't think Tomb Raider grossed enough this weekend to justify the amount of theaters it has (which is a higher amount of theaters than Pacific Rim: Uprising). I think Tomb Raider will likely be losing a fairly large amount of theaters next weekend, but I'm expecting it to have a slower drop-off period than something like Assassin's Creed or Warcraft. I think it can still leg its way past $60 million.

 

I'm starting to want A Wrinkle in Time to make it to $100M domestic but I think the chance is becoming a little slim at this time. Its status as a family film might give it a little more longevity, and I don't really think theaters are going to be willing to drop it too quickly. To make it to $100M, the film needs less than $30M. Maybe it can pull a Maze Runner or a Passengers or an Edge of Tomorrow. Who knows.

 

Love, Simon has a much better hold than many of the other film this time around. It'll still be around for a few weeks.

 

I'm a little disappointed at how low Paul, Apostle of Christ debuted, but if the OW stays above $5M, that means the film made its production budget back in the weekend alone. The film will undoubtedly be a popular choice among the elderly folks who see movies on weekdays, so this can't be as much of a financial disaster as Samson was.

 

Game Night surprised me. I thought it would be dropping off the top ten, but its hold is magnificent. This film deserves it, so bravo!

 

And at #10, we have Midnight Sun, attempting to make the same clutch move that Forever My Girl and Every Day made to get a #10 spot. This romance genre has really gone off the deep end.

 

I'm disappointed about Unsane. The film was the only film releasing wide this weekend that had a fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and it still managed to fall flat on its face just before the Top Ten finish line. That #10 slot that Midnight Sun is stubbornly holding on to rightfully belongs to Unsane. But at least the film made a profit, right?

 

I guess there is a big drop-off for films like Peter Rabbit when the majority of their audience has already seen it. But the thing that matters the most is that it made $100M when many of the other films couldn't.

 

Red Sparrow is $9M away from doubling its budget worldwide. There is an audience that's really driving this film during the weekdays, so I think it'll have no problem doubling its budget worldwide.

 

I don't think my Strangers: Prey at Night over Kidnap club is going to work out. There's no way it'll secure $8-$9M more than it already has.

 

That's a very good amount for Isle of Dogs to be receiving on an OW with on 27 theaters. I think Wes Anderson fans can really drive the film forward to a respectable gross. Plus, all the kids being interested in this film's big standee in the auditoriums that showcases all of the dogs can't hurt its gross.

 

The Death of Stalin did good to gross $1M this weekend, and I can certainly envision IFC being more adventurous by trying to expand this semi-wide while they can.

 

And I'm not sure if it's a normal occurrence or not for films going from wide to platform after virtually two months' time, but Winchester only had a 0.2% drop this weekend. Not that it really matters at this point.

[Morieris]

I wonder which one will make more money in the long run; Pac Rim or Wrinkle.

[WrathOfHan]

I haven't read too much about the content of Isle of Dogs because I don't want to be spoiled, but it sounds like something anyone over the age of 8-10 can handle fine. When families have a sense of what the movie is through WOM, that can help it out in May before theaters start dropping it. Chances are most midsize theaters will keep it around until Deadpool; here's a hypothetical 12plex slate:

 

Avengers x4

Breaking In

Life of the Party

Overboard

Tully

I Feel Pretty

Rampage

A Quiet Place

Isle of Dogs/Blockers

(I'm not convinced Bad Samaritan and Revenge are going into 1k+ theaters until the TCs are out)

 

An Avengers screen could always be dropped too.