Weekend thread | Deadline Friday Est. (p.11) ~ PR:U 10.1M, BP 4.4M, ICOI 3.7M, TR 2.8M, SG 2.7M, AWIT 2.1M, L,S 2.3M, P,AOC 1.5M, MS 1.45M, GN 1.2M, U 1.3M

[MikeQ]

44 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't know if it can retain the screens long enough for that to happen. It'll be out of the top three next weekend with a 40-45% drop, and even though it'll rebound with a drop in the 20s after Easter, Rampage will probably bring some damage the following weekend.

 

Last weekend you projected Black Panther to drop 45% this weekend. So if you’re wrong about the same percentage again, it will drop 32-37% this coming weekend. Let’s see what happens. I totally understand your logic, but Black Panther was still the #2 grossing film this weekend. Theatres aren’t in a hurry to dump it yet.

 

Peace,

Mike

[LonePirate]

28 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

I wish Love, Simon was doing better. I just don't get why it is not doing better,

I think the release date may be partially to blame. There are simply too many films out right now. Plus, the movie feels like an October release to me.

 

I wonder what would have happened if the film had opened on Super Bowl weekend. It would have claimed the #1 spot for the weekend if it had grossed the same as it did last weekend. I doubt the second weekend of Maze Runner would have impacted its opening much. Simon would have held up well in its second weekend as Fifty Shades Freed was going after a different audience. A few days later, Valentine's Day would have seen it do remarkable business. Then it could have captured spillover business from people who could not get in to see BP during that weekend. By then, its legs would have kicked in for a nice run.

 

I don't know. I'm not in the marketing department of a movie studio so maybe I am completely wrong about MR and FSF impacting it with a Super Bowl weekend opening. 

 

Regardless, LS is beloved by the people who have seen it. It has developed a cult-like following, even if the film is on the verge of outgrossing the threshold for a cult status film. If nothing else, I hope the film encourages studios to release more high quality rom coms, be it with straight or not straight romantic leads.

[MovieMan89]

Sub 30% for BP next weekend would be very hard b/c of Easter, but I think it can still hit the 30-35% range. Get Out was at a similar point in its run going into Easter and dropped 26%. Sure it wasn't grossing near as much as BP, but there's still definite parallels between the two in terms of release date, great WOM, and huge African American appeal. Not to mention BP and GO's 4th-6th weekend holds have been very similar. 

Edited March 25, 2018 by MovieMan89

[RRA]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Remember the 100% on RT?

What’s the context here?

[Zakiyyah6]

Well 28mil was a bigger opening that I thought PRU would get. Too bad about that 150+mil budget and the Chinese numbers.

[grim22]

@Brainbug has been threadbanned for 24 hours for posting pirated content.

[grim22]

That is one horrible UK opening

 

 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

That is one horrible UK opening

 

 

Yeah, I must say it's looking to be a mega bomb OS. Rare to see a 90m+ DOM grosser do so bad OS, especially coming from a studio like Disney.

[Barnack]

44 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

It's scheduled for May 31 which is when it'll already be online. Also Atomic Blonde made just over $3m and that was more action-packed. 

Red Sparrow openned between 2x to 4 time over Atomic Blonde in most market it has already made 175% of is international total.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=thecoldestcity.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=redsparrow.htm

 

You think Red Sparrow will make 2-3m in France, Russia in Japan combined or by market for a 6 to 9m total ?

 

Atomic blonde vs Sparrow OW

France: 1.33 / ?

Germany: 1.06 / 2.45

Spain: 0.585 / 2.05

UK: 2.2 / 2.5

Japan: 0.54 /?

Russia: 1.6/?

Italy:  (2.095 for the total run) / 1.44

 

Atomic blonde did 7.5m in them for a comparison, Sparrow could do less a Russia release is not even sure to happen and is I think is currently scheduled to be during the Avengers weekend, but Sparrow over performed atomic blonde in almost every Euro country so far by a good amount no ?

 

Seem like it is playing around at least 200-250% of Atomic Blonde or so so far, closer to a Girl with a dragoon tattoo type of performance.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2018 by Barnack

[Zakiyyah6]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, I must say it's looking to be a mega bomb OS. Rare to see a 90m+ DOM grosser do so bad OS, especially coming from a studio like Disney.

I knew it was probably screwed overseas when I saw that Tomorrowland only grossed 116mil overseas.

Edited March 25, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[KJsooner]

1 hour ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

nope

 

Yep it’s great. It and TDK are still the best superhero films of all time. Nothing will ever beat those two.

[MovieMan89]

As I've been suspecting for a few weeks, Jumanji is gonna cut it right down to the wire for beating Spider-man. Needs a 4.6x multi off of this weekend. Not impossible for a family aimed film that should play for awhile yet, but not easy either. Gonna be close. 

 

Meanwhile, TGS passes Chicago for #3 all time live action musical DOM in what will be its last notable box office milestone. 

Edited March 25, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Zakiyyah6]

I think the Greatest Showman looks terrible and I hate 95% of live action musicals but I'm really happy for Jackman, Efron and Zendaya's success box office wise. 

[Jake Gittes]

19 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Red Sparrow openned between 2x to 4 time over Atomic Blonde in most market it has already made 175% of is international total.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=thecoldestcity.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=redsparrow.htm

 

You think Red Sparrow will make 2-3m in France, Russia in Japan combined or by market for a 6 to 9m total ?

 

Atomic blonde vs Sparrow OW

France: 1.33 / ?

Germany: 1.06 / 2.45

Spain: 0.585 / 2.05

UK: 2.2 / 2.5

Japan: 0.54 /?

Russia: 1.6/?

Italy:  (2.095 for the total run) / 1.44

 

Atomic blonde did 7.5m in them for a comparison, Sparrow could do less a Russia release is not even sure to happen and is I think is currently scheduled to be during the Avengers weekend, but Sparrow over performed atomic blonde in almost every Euro country so far by a good amount no ?

 

Seem like it is playing around at least 200-250% of Atomic Blonde or so so far, closer to a Girl with a dragoon tattoo type of performance.

I was talking about Russia only. 

[Valonqar]

It sucks to be #1 and having to share headlines with another movie that's stealing the show cause of its huge milestone. 

[YLF]

15 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I think the Greatest Showman looks terrible and I hate 95% of live action musicals but I'm really happy for Jackman, Efron and Zendaya's success box office wise. 

I didnt like it at all. Im quite shocked at how well it is doing - the showing I went to the entire row behind me(they all seemed to have come together) left about an hour into the movie and never returned lol. So, I know its just not me. But, the people that like it, seem to REALLY like it. I'm happy for Hugh Jackman that he was able to have a successful box office run with a movie not being apart of the X-ment franchise. The opening weekend worried me.

[Zakiyyah6]

6 minutes ago, YLF said:

I didnt like it at all. Im quite shocked at how well it is doing - the showing I went to the entire row behind me(they all seemed to have come together) left about an hour into the movie and never returned lol. So, I know its just not me. But, the people that like it, seem to REALLY like it. I'm happy for Hugh Jackman that he was able to have a successful box office run with a movie not being apart of the X-ment franchise. The opening weekend worried me.

The opening weekend was bad. I was calling it a flop. Stellar word of mouth saved it.

[WrathOfHan]

54 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Sub 30% for BP next weekend would be very hard b/c of Easter, but I think it can still hit the 30-35% range. Get Out was at a similar point in its run going into Easter and dropped 26%. Sure it wasn't grossing near as much as BP, but there's still definite parallels between the two in terms of release date, great WOM, and huge African American appeal. Not to mention BP and GO's 4th-6th weekend holds have been very similar. 

I don't think Get Out is an apt comparison; even with strong weekend holds, the highest drop Get Out had in the first half of its run (36% in its 6th weekend) is on the level of Black Panther's lowest (34.7% last weekend). It was also in under 1,500 theaters on Easter weekend without much of a loss from the previous weekend, and there was another Universal film that may have inflated the gross.

Edited March 25, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[IronJimbo]

53 minutes ago, RRA said:

What’s the context here?

My point was that the critics gave it super raving reviews so the "is that it?" reactions were warranted on that alone

Edited March 25, 2018 by IronJimbo

[grey ghost]

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It's discussed by the great philosopher Eric Lynn Wright.

 

If you haven't googled this man's work you're doing yourself a serious disservice.