Weekend thread | Deadline Friday Est. (p.11) ~ PR:U 10.1M, BP 4.4M, ICOI 3.7M, TR 2.8M, SG 2.7M, AWIT 2.1M, L,S 2.3M, P,AOC 1.5M, MS 1.45M, GN 1.2M, U 1.3M

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Paul hasn't been performing on that level at my theater; I'm expecting it to be on half a screen or gone by April 6.

Oh, I expect it to be gone most places after the Easter rush is over...if it's gonna make money, it's this week (Palm Sunday through Easter Sunday:)...probably a few more folks than expected are making the Palm Sunday bible sojourn today...

[filmscholar]

19 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

 

Look, i give props were props is due.  You can throw rocks at "Ultron" but the 1st "Avengers" was a great comic book movie.  Nobody saying it's "The Godfather".  

[That One Girl]

Pacific Rim Uprising is as good as the first one.  Which means it’s not good.

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

BP gets to 697m if it follows TFA's holds from here. Has held significantly better than that for the last three weekends in a row. I think it can still eek out 700. 

I don't know if it can retain the screens long enough for that to happen. It'll be out of the top three next weekend with a 40-45% drop, and even though it'll rebound with a drop in the 20s after Easter, Rampage will probably bring some damage the following weekend.

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't know if it can retain the screens long enough for that to happen. It'll be out of the top three next weekend with a 40-45% drop, and even though it'll rebound with a drop in the 20s after Easter, Rampage will probably bring some damage the following weekend.

Why on earth would it drop that much? It should still be ahead of TFA's TC next weekend (would have to lose 850+ screens, doubt it just because of RPO) and TFA faced a higher grossing opener in its 7th weekend than RPO is likely to be and still dropped 20%. 7th weekend drops have historically been some of the lightest for every single one of the top 10 DOM grossers, even TLJ. The worst one is JW's -37%. I don't see a drop of more than 30%.

Edited March 25, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Fancyarcher]

13 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Pacific Rim Uprising is as good as the first one.  Which means it’s not good.

So it sounds like it's a good time at the cinemas, then. 

Edited March 25, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[KeepItU25071906]

7 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

but the 1st "Avengers" was a great comic book movie

nope

[ChrisTelclear]

47 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

It'll do 2 or 3 million here at best.

Really?  mother! made $2.5M, I would think this would do much better that nightmare.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

I wish Love, Simon was doing better. I just don't get why it is not doing better,

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Why on earth would it drop that much? It should still be ahead of TFA's TC next weekend (would have to lose 850+ screens, doubt it just because of RPO) and TFA faced a higher grossing opener in its 7th weekend than RPO is likely to be and still dropped 20%. I don't see a drop of more than 30%.

Here's what happens if it follows TWS' holds this week leading into the holiday weekend:

 

1.4M (-70.3%)

1.9M (+36.5%)

1.4M (-25.4%)

1.7M (+22.5%)

 

3.7M (+120.1%)

4M (+8.8%)

2.2M (-44.4%)

9.9M Weekend, 41% drop

 

The weekday holds aren't perfect because BP has yet to increase that much on Tuesday, but those Monday and Wednesday drops are in line with BP. This is what I see happening:

 

1.4M (-70%)

1.8M (+30%)

1.3M (-27%)

1.6M (+20%)

 

3.5M (+120%)

3.3M (-5%)

2.2M (-33%)

9M Weekend, 46% drop

[Zakiyyah6]

6 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

I wish Love, Simon was doing better. I just don't get why it is not doing better,

The drop is pretty good but the problem is that it didn't open higher. 

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

I wish Love, Simon was doing better. I just don't get why it is not doing better,

[Kvikk Lunsj]

9 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The drop is pretty good but the problem is that it didn't open higher. 

It should have at least opened to 100m

[Jake Gittes]

24 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Why on earth would it drop that much? It should still be ahead of TFA's TC next weekend (would have to lose 850+ screens, doubt it just because of RPO) and TFA faced a higher grossing opener in its 7th weekend than RPO is likely to be and still dropped 20%. 7th weekend drops have historically been some of the lightest for every single one of the top 10 DOM grossers, even TLJ. The worst one is JW's -37%. I don't see a drop of more than 30%.

7th weekends aren't the same all year round. TFA's was inflated in a big way because its previous weekend was post-MLK and faced a snowstorm. 

 

Anyway, reaching 700 would require over 5x multi from this weekend and I don't see where it would suddenly get that when it's been having very consistent 30-40% holds the last few weeks. 

 

25 minutes ago, ChrisTelclear said:

Really?  mother! made $2.5M, I would think this would do much better that nightmare.

It's scheduled for May 31 which is when it'll already be online. Also Atomic Blonde made just over $3m and that was more action-packed. 

[LonePirate]

I wish I could go back in time and sit in on some of the pitch meetings for ICOI. I have no doubt I would be amazed by the persuasive tactics used to secure financing for a movie about a 15+ year old Christian music song. How many times were they laughed out of the room? How many times did they get hung up on almost immediately? Yet here we are now looking at, arguably, the most surprising hit of the year.

 

The film has zero appeal to me and I will never watch it. Still, I have to applaud the people behind ICOI for getting it made and turning it into a completely unexpected success.

[narniadis]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Considering Texas is one of the places it is over performing, I think that picture needs updating LOL

[Zakiyyah6]

11 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

It should have at least opened to 100m

I haven't see Love Simon yet but I feel the same way about Annihilation. Then again I'm a whore for thoughtful sci fi movies. 

[WrathOfHan]

UNSANE should have opened to 100M.

[Jonwo]

Both Unsane and Love Simon are going to be profitable for their respective studios.

[Cap]

35 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

I wish Love, Simon was doing better. I just don't get why it is not doing better,

As I said in the Love, Simon thread, I am not surprised at its numbers yesterday. LS has been strong amongst the Under 25, and the females, and that core demo was NOT at the movies.  And the biggest March Four Our Lives happened in DC, NYC, Boston, and LA - which were also the biggest markets for LS 

 

and, what Han said.

 

I will be interested to see if today was higher than projected.