Weekend Thread: Rampage 34.5M, AQP 32.6M, ToD 19M, RPO 11.2M, Blockers 10.2M

[Maxmoser3]

Damn! Rampage won! It will make Oblivion numbers at this point. 

[Barnack]

37 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, they probably hit their "we affect the market" number (I think they mentioned they'd be 10% of all tickets this month), and now they want to actually attempt profitability...so $10/month for 4 movies (figuring most of these "new" subscribers will probably let 1-2 of those 4 movies expire)...and they get kickbacks on concessions and tickets...that's probably a break-even price for them per subscriber...

 

Did they add a couples/family plan yet, or is it still 100% individually based?

$29.95 a month for 4 2D movies, average 2D movie ticket price is probably around what $8 ?, so yeah just have to drop 0.5 movie a month to make sense, but at the same time very few will take that deal, you would need to have pricey 2D movie in your city and almost always consume the 4 movies to make a significant rebate.

[John Marston]

Should have made Rampage a sequel to San Andreas and brought back gawdesk Daddario 

[Barnack]

35 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't think they're getting anything from concessions; that eats right into a theater's profit.

That must be the complete plan of MoviePass eating at theater profit margin by customer in exchange in a promises to not cut their volume of customer by directing it to a competitor (or even augment it by making it cheaper to go to the customer).

[Barnack]

27 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Damn! Rampage won! It will make Oblivion numbers at this point. 

Elysium turned a 20m profit for the studio with that Oblivion box office numbers and a 126m net budget.

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$93,050,117	32.5%
+ Foreign:	$193,090,583	67.5%
= Worldwide:	$286,140,700

 

 

To give a bit of an idea about Rampage if that 120m rumored budget is close to the truth.

 

Elysium expected profit for different box office scenario with is 126m budget and 100m release.

 

DBO: 91.6, intl: 128.3 WW: 219.9, break even point, $0

Return break, fixed at 15.5% ROI at 145m dbo/203m intl, 348m WW for a 53m profit

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2018 by Barnack

[Dandeak2000]

Revenue Update:

 

Rampage Budget: $120M

$17.3M DOM

$23.6M INT

$13.8M China

$54.7M Worldwide (-$65.3M after prod. budget)

 

A Quiet Place Budget: $17M

$49.8M DOM

$20.7M INT

$70.5M Worldwide ($53.5M after prod. budget)

 

Truth or Dare Budget: $3.5M

$9.5M DOM

$1M INT

$10.5M Worldwide ($7M after prod. budget)

 

Ready Player One Budget: $175M

$57.3M DOM

$79.5M INT

$40.6M China

$177.4M Worldwide ($2.4M after prod. budget)

 

Blockers Budget: $21M

$18.5M DOM

$6.4M INT

$24.9M Worldwide ($3.9M after prod. budget)

 

How some March films are doing.

 

Pacific Rim Uprising Budget: $150M

$28.8M DOM

$45.5M INT

$24.6M China

$98.9M Worldwide (-$51.1M after prod. budget)

 

Love, Simon Budget: $17M

$19.6M DOM

$4.1M INT

$23.7M Worldwide ($6.7M after prod. budget)

[Zakiyyah6]

A 49.9% drop is pretty hefty for an extremely well reviewed comedy. Guess Game Night will keep it's comedy crown.

[filmlover]

Rampage ended up doing okay. Could reach $90M depending on how badly Infinity War hits it.

 

A Quiet Place is doing awesome still. Hopefully it goes over $175M.

 

Truth or Dare is sure to die fast from here but has already turned a very nice profit so the rest is just gravy.

Edited April 15, 2018 by filmlover

[Deja23]

30 minutes ago, Barnack said:

$29.95 a month for 4 2D movies, average 2D movie ticket price is probably around what $8 ?, so yeah just have to drop 0.5 movie a month to make sense, but at the same time very few will take that deal, you would need to have pricey 2D movie in your city and almost always consume the 4 movies to make a significant rebate.

It’s $29.95 for 3 months. So 12 2D movie tickets. Plus one time $6.55 activation fee. It’s not a terrible deal, but sucks compared to the previous unlimited deal.

[WrathOfHan]

Forecasting some stuff:
 

Rampage:

Remainder of this week: 9.6M (44.1M Total)

Apr 20: 17.4M (4.9M weekdays, 66.4M Total)

Apr 27: 5.9M (1.7M weekdays, 74M Total)

May 4: 3M (800k weekdays, 77.8M Total)

May 11: 1.2M (300k weekdays, 79.3M Total)

May 18: 500k (100k weekdays, 79.9M Total)

Final Total: 83M (2.41x)

 

Getting to 100M is going to depend on an above average hold next week and a decent rebound on May 4.

 

A Quiet Place:

Remainder of this week: 12.2M (111.8M Total)

Apr 20: 24M (8.6M weekdays, 144.4M Total)

Apr 27: 12.4M (4.4M weekdays, 161.2M Total)

May 4: 8.5M (3.1M weekdays, 172.8M Total)

May 11: 6M (2.1M weekdays, 180.9M Total)

May 18: 3.3M (1.1M weekdays, 185.3M Total)

May 25: 1.7M (900k weekdays, 187.9M Total)

Jun 1: 1.1M (600k weekdays, 189.6M Total)

Jun 8: 700k (400k weekdays, 190.7M Total)

Final Total: 193M (3.84x)

 

Honestly, 200M is still on the table if this has a drop close to or below 20% next week. If anything has a sub-50% drop when IW opens, it'll be this.

 

Truth or Dare:

Remainder of this week: 4M (23.1M Total)

Apr 20: 6.2M (1.6M weekdays, 30.9M Total)

Apr 27: 1.8M (500k weekdays, 33.1M Total)

May 4: 700k (200k weekdays, 34M Total)

Final Total: 36M (1.88x)

 

Infinity War is going to kill its chances at a 2x. Happy Death Day barely managed to get one with Halloween inflating its third week.

 

Isle of Dogs:

Remainder of this week: 1.7M (20.2M Total)

Apr 20: 3.5M (1.3M weekdays, 25M Total)

Apr 27: 1.6M (600k weekdays, 27.2M Total)

May 4: 1.2M (400k weekdays, 28.8M Total)

May 11: 800k (300k weekdays, 29.9M Total)

Final Total: 32M

 

Metro areas will save late legs and get this to 30M. This isn't the result many of us wanted, but Fox tried their best to push this for a wide audience.

[Zakiyyah6]

With a 63% drop A Wrinkle in Time's chance at 100mil looks to be dead. 

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

MoviePass is no longer offering unlimited movies for new subscribers; it's now a quarterly subscription for $30 with 4 movies per month and IHeartRadio  

They need to change their model before the storm of IW kicks in

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

With a 63% drop A Wrinkle in Time's chance at 100mil looks to be dead. 

It's been dead for a while now.

[DAJK]

8 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

With a 63% drop A Wrinkle in Time's chance at 100mil looks to be dead. 

Good riddance that movie sucked IMO. Glad to see Disney isn't invincible all the time

[WrathOfHan]

Holy fuck, Isle of Dogs is EXPLODING at my theater today; the show that just started probably sold more tickets (34) than most of yesterday's shows combined  

[Zakiyyah6]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's been dead for a while now.

I thought it had a decent chance of crawling over that mark last weekend but obviously I was wrong.

 

Ultimately the domestic numbers were not the issue. They as not good but okay enough. Unlike RPO and Rampage, AWIT does not have the overseas numbers to save it.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Holy fuck, Isle of Dogs is EXPLODING at my theater today; the show that just started probably sold more tickets (34) than most of yesterday's shows combined  

The Church of Wes Anderson doing their work after service, I see.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Good riddance that movie sucked IMO. Glad to see Disney isn't invincible all the time

It would have been damn impressive to see a studio get all 100m grossers for every release in a year. Something like that is just an insane box office feat that would have been cool to see any studio pull off. Especially since WiT is going to literally get within 3-4m. Things were looking so good last weekend too. 

[baumer]

So let's take a look at how wrong everybody has been about truth or dare so far. First it was going to get buried in the dust of a quiet place. People had it opening up to single digits or low doubles.  Then when it had a decent Friday, people said it was going to drop massively on Saturday and it actually fell in single digits if you take out the Thursday preview number. Now that it is opened up to 18.5-19 mill, the new narrative is that it's going to crumble from here on out. 

 

Jason Blum and Blum house pictures has proven time and time again that they know what people are interested in and they can pick scripts and Market them to the Right audience. Even if this has a happy death day multiplier it will come in at around 40 million. For a movie that cost around three and a half or four million dollars before marketing that's an excellent business model. So the Doom and Gloom here around truth or dare has  actually been wrong right from the beginning. It's okay to admit when you guys are wrong. I admit when I'm wrong all the time which is pretty much every other day LOL

[Barnack]

31 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

It’s $29.95 for 3 months. So 12 2D movie tickets. Plus one time $6.55 activation fee. It’s not a terrible deal, but sucks compared to the previous unlimited deal.

What a strange type of deal....... 3 month