Weekend Thread: Rampage 34.5M, AQP 32.6M, ToD 19M, RPO 11.2M, Blockers 10.2M

[BenedictL11]

Rampage was underestimated according to Gitesh Pandya from Twitter

 

#Rampage came in above studio estimates with an opening wknd #boxoffice of $35.75M. Good daily flow with SAT up 20%, then SUN down only 26%. Will try to become 11th film for #DwayneJohnson in a lead role to break $100M domestic.

[baumer]

6 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Jim on $6.1b after just 7 films.

By 2022 (or 2021) Jim is the highest grossing director

by 2024 everyone is left in the dust

 

It's okay to celebrate the accomplishments of another without feeling sleighted towards your boy.  

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, BenedictL11 said:

Rampage was underestimated according to Gitesh Pandya from Twitter

Rampage up $1m from estimates then. Hopefully other movies increased too. 

[a2k]

I was hoping 34.5 changes to 35 but 35.75 is a bonanza. I did not smell this cooking.

[baumer]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Rampage up $1m from estimates then. Hopefully other movies increased too. 

 

Don't hold your breath for TOD increasing.  They already gave it a very generous Sunday drop.  I just hope it stays above 19.

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Don't hold your breath for TOD increasing.  They already gave it a very generous Sunday drop.  I just hope it stays above 19.

Yeh I’m not expecting that one, I think the Saturday drop will end up being generous too, but we’ll see. Anything over $18m is still great for it and above even late tracking. I’ll go see it tomorrow, didn’t have time at weekend. 

[picores]

Nice opening for Rampage. 100m DOM very much alive. IW will have the last word.

[a2k]

35.75 * 2.50 = 89.4

35.75 * 2.65 = 94.7

35.75 * 2.80 = 100.1

 

95 is feasible and 2-3 more might entice a studio push.

[harrycaul]

Will AQP end up over 100 actual, tho???????

[CJohn]

15 minutes ago, BenedictL11 said:

Rampage was underestimated according to Gitesh Pandya from Twitter

 

#Rampage came in above studio estimates with an opening wknd #boxoffice of $35.75M. Good daily flow with SAT up 20%, then SUN down only 26%. Will try to become 11th film for #DwayneJohnson in a lead role to break $100M domestic.

Avengers won't allow it. Should end with 90M or so.

[Boxofficerules]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Avengers won't allow it. Should end with 90M or so.

That’s what I’m thinking, Avengers will chop into everything’s legs.

[MCKillswitch123]

Very good increase from estimates  Honestly, I think 100M depends on how much it holds next week as much if not more than how it holds against IW's OW (and even if the IW OW drop is massive, it'll probably rebound the weekend after). It honestly needs around a 45% or less drop to have a serious 100M DOM chance, since, using A Wrinkle In Time as a comparable (I know AWIT was PG, but they both opened fairly similar, plus WIT's holds were much more akin to a PG-13 action movie), its 3rd weekend drop will be much, much bigger than Wrinkle's (probably in the 60%+ vincinity). Late legs will also be a major narrator in its box office story.

Edited April 16, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Avatree]

25 minutes ago, BenedictL11 said:

Will try to become 11th film for #DwayneJohnson in a lead role to break $100M domestic.

That sounds really impressive until you realise there are in fact 8 Dwayne Johnson films over 100M, not 11. Which admittedly is still really impressive but whatever, they're wrong. 

 

Edited April 16, 2018 by Treeze Rutledge

[Godzilla]

9 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

That’s what I’m thinking, Avengers will chop into everything’s legs.

Yea but it should recover a bit the weekend after Avengers. Right now I'd say around $95 million domestically.

[a2k]

95 dom

135 China

140 CurrnetOS-China(using only 2.37x multiplier off the 59 ow due to AIW)

Japan 10

Germany+Poland 10

= 390

 

That 2.37x looks conservative even accounting for AIW and China could do 140-150 too. So wouldn't rule out 400 ww for Rampage.

[titanic2187]

TGS, AQP, RPO, Peter Rabbit, I can only imagine, or even game night and now Rampage, ushering the golden age of original film....they probably not the all time grosser, but they are grabbing more attention than usual

[MCKillswitch123]

@titanic2187 I get you, but..... the only actual original movies of those are A Quiet Place and Game Night. As for the others:

 

• You can kinda call The Greatest Showman an original as it's basically a romanticizing of someone who isn't really worth glorifying, but it's still supposedly a biopic on PT Barnum;
• Ready Player One and Peter Rabbit are book adaptations;
• I Can Only Imagine is also a biographical drama, behind the creation of a song;
• Rampage is a video game movie.

 

I mean, I know what you mean by "original", but I think we could reserve that for movies that are really originals, as in movies not based on anything pre-existing.

3 hours ago, CJohn said:

Rampage is easily gonna beat Godzilla because that was released during the first year of WB movies with NOS and that was an awful year, every movie had the worst possible marketing campaign and Godzilla was one of the victims, but it won't touch Kong. I would say Rampage had less marketing than RPO or Tomb Raider. Marketing in the streets seemed to be confined to the subway unlike those two, for example.

 

Paddington 2 was a big disappointment here as it dropped hard from the first one, but it still beat Gnome Alone's total, even if barely. Ferdinand and Coco were the big Christmas players and Paddington 2 got lost in the shuffle even thought it probably had the biggest marketing campaign of the 3. The Gnome Alone number is perfectly fine all things considered. It is gonna end up above Sherlock Gnomes, which had the Easter holidays, and it could be worse, it could pull an Early Man lmao.

 

I think the re-release is related to the Festa do Cinema Italiano which was a week ago combined with the 30th anniversary of the movie.

Didn't know about the 2014 NOS-WB story, but thank God for WB that NOS has become a marketing force. They did a pretty good job w/Tomb Raider and Paddington 2 (which, well, shame about its drop). Hell, one of the best promoted movies of 2018 so far, at least here, is still The Commuter (which isn't WB, but HOLY SHIT did they promote the ever loving fuck out of that). Rampage.... yeah, not so much. The lack of marketing for it really did give the impression that WB was not confident with it. Not surprised it won't touch Kong.

 

Holy shit, I forgot about Early Man   My God, what a disaster. Yeah, box office-wise, Gnome Alone looks like an Illumination movie by comparison. It's sad to see just how far Aardman have fallen, they used to be at the absolute forefront of animated quality, alongside Pixar and Ghibli. Hell, they released The Shaun The Sheep Movie just a few years ago, and that was a fun little movie based on a fun little cartoon. I haven't seen Early Man, but I haven't heard the best about it, and its BO..... woof.

 

OH, Paradiso came out 30 years ago. The Portuguese release date led me to think it was 1990. That makes a lot more sense. Didn't know about FdCI, but yeah, makes sense too.

Edited April 16, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Celedhring]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

TGS, AQP, RPO, Peter Rabbit, I can only imagine, or even game night and now Rampage, ushering the golden age of original film....they probably not the all time grosser, but they are grabbing more attention than usual

From that list, only TGS and AQP are original films. The rest are all adaptations. I think we'll need to wait a little more for that golden age...

Edited April 16, 2018 by Celedhring

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Celedhring said:

From that list, only TGS and AQP are original films. The rest are all adaptations. I think we'll need to wait a little more for that golden age...

but to casual moviegoers, they are pretty fresh but of course familiar

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

@titanic2187 I get you, but..... the only actual original movies of those are A Quiet Place and Game Night. As for the others:

 

• You can kinda call The Greatest Showman an original as it's basically a romanticizing of someone who isn't really worth glorifying, but it's still supposedly a biopic on PT Barnum;
• Ready Player One and Peter Rabbit are book adaptations;
• I Can Only Imagine is also a biographical drama, behind the creation of a song;
• Rampage is a video game movie.

 

I mean, I know what you mean by "original", but I think we could reserve that for movies that are really originals, as in movies not based on anything pre-existing.

 

 

I agree with your concept of original, but those are the analysis that come from us with knowledge about the film, and sometimes our analysis maybe way too technical, but for causal moviegoers, those are new brands. Sometime, we need to imagine if we are not BOT members and just a random guys who just walked into the theater based on their instinct, they are the massive crowd that make up the large part of audiences.