Weekend Thread: Rampage 34.5M, AQP 32.6M, ToD 19M, RPO 11.2M, Blockers 10.2M

[Zakiyyah6]

I don't deny that I was wrong about Truth or Dare's box office. I guess horror is so hot right now that even a terrible looking horror movie will over perform. 

[Nova]

According to Movie Pass's website, the deal they have now is for a limited time only. Similar to how they had that $6.95 a month thing not too long ago. I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest bit if they offered this new deal now so new users who were considering using Movie Pass to watch IW a million times can't lol 

 

Also depending on how long they keep this deal around for, they can also withstand the rush of DP2 and Solo from new users. I know they take forever to get cards out so by the time the deal ends and new users can get the previous $10 a month subscription card, we will be in June. 

Edited April 15, 2018 by Nova

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I don't deny that I was wrong about Truth or Dare's box office. I guess horror is so hot right now that even a terrible looking horror movie will over perform. 

 

It MIGHT not be a great movie but imo it looked good in the trailers. Marketing did it's job.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Porthos, is $100M dead now?

Spoiler

Have to hope that is a horrible Sunday on Disney's part and even then:

 

 

[grim22]

@That Ambitious Guy has been threadbanned for poisoning the well and trolling.

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

@That Ambitious Guy has been threadbanned for poisoning the well and trolling.

 

[StevenG]

I guess that you cannot bet against three things in Hollywood: the MCU, James Cameron, and Blum horror. That is as sure a thing as you get.

 

 

[StevenG]

41 minutes ago, baumer said:

So let's take a look at how wrong everybody has been about truth or dare so far. First it was going to get buried in the dust of a quiet place. People had it opening up to single digits or low doubles.  Then when it had a decent Friday, people said it was going to drop massively on Saturday and it actually fell in single digits if you take out the Thursday preview number. Now that it is opened up to 18.5-19 mill, the new narrative is that it's going to crumble from here on out. 

 

Jason Blum and Blum house pictures has proven time and time again that they know what people are interested in and they can pick scripts and Market them to the Right audience. Even if this has a happy death day multiplier it will come in at around 40 million. For a movie that cost around three and a half or four million dollars before marketing that's an excellent business model. So the Doom and Gloom here around truth or dare has  actually been wrong right from the beginning. It's okay to admit when you guys are wrong. I admit when I'm wrong all the time which is pretty much every other day LOL

 

Bravo!

That Blum guy is, in a way, the Kevin Feige of microbudgeted horror films.

I bet that TOD will make at least 40 million dollars in the US, or more than ten times its budget.

Another triumph for Blumhouse.

[CJohn]

54 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I don't deny that I was wrong about Truth or Dare's box office. I guess horror is so hot right now that even a terrible looking horror movie will over perform. 

It looks great tho. I still plan on watching it.

[filmscholar]

That's a great Hold for AQP especially with TOD digging into the demos.  Blumhouse does win again, there budget formula is flawless seriously.   Ram's opening is decent, in context of Video Games, that's the 3rd Highest Unadjusted opening behind the original "Tomb Raider" and "Angry Birds" recently.   Also it pulled in a nice International opening weekend proving The Rock to be an International Star.   Well see if it can leg it's way to 100 domestic but over 400+ WW should be the target.  What this shows is both Ram and AQP will be making money when I.W. drops.  BP is still holding well, it's at 673 so we are less than 30 Million away from 700 but it will be losing more screens as we approach the home video release in May.   27 Million, does it have a little more juice left in the tank?  RPO got hit by Ram as far as splitting demos.  Ironically both have ties to Video Games.   Internationally 500 Million is looking good making it Steven's highest grossing film since "War of the Worlds" over a Decade ago.  I think it's doing fine, yes that was a huge budget but internationally seem to be pushing it pretty well.   Now we await the coming War......

[Alli]

Rampage only 34M?  Proof once again that trailer views are pointless. This has a healthy 31M views on youtube...

[MaxAggressor]

11 minutes ago, Alli said:

Rampage only 34M?  Proof once again that trailer views are pointless. This has a healthy 31M views on youtube...

The 31m YT views is a global number. It's not just from North America. Rampage is opening to 148m+ world-wide. The YT views are not that misleading when seen from that POV, no?? YT views does give us an idea as to how a movie is likely to behave in the world-wide BO when we have established some standards from historical trends.

 

Plus iirc, @Barnack got a very high correlation coefficient when plotting WW BO numbers for a movie and the corresponding YT views/likes for the same. That's not to say that there won't be a few misses in this type of analysis but more often than not YT views are an excellent indicator of world-wide BO performance.

Edited April 15, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[Alli]

5 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

The 31m YT views is a global number. It's not just from North America. Rampage is opening to 148m+ world-wide. The YT views are not that misleading when seen from that POV, no?? YT views does give us an idea as to how a movie is likely to behave in the world-wide BO when we have established some standards from historical trends.

 

Plus iirc, @Barnack got a very high correlation coefficient when plotting WW BO numbers for a movie and the corresponding YT views/likes for the same. That's not to say that there won't be a few misses in this type of analysis but more often than not YT views are an excellent indicator of world-wide BO performance.

Makes sense. I'm worried about MI-Fallout. Only 20M views and i bet most are from OS

[Alli]

I  wish we could see where the views are coming from. I believe youtube had this option a few years ago

Edited April 15, 2018 by Alli

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Alli said:

I  wish we could see where the views are coming from. I believe youtube had this option a few years ago

They still do. I know some folks on another site I visit pull that info up. I just don't know how they do it lol 

[harrycaul]

20 minutes ago, Nova said:

They still do. I know some folks on another site I visit pull that info up. I just don't know how they do it lol 

I know you can see for your own videos, don't know if you can on other people's.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, StevenG said:

 

Bravo!

That Blum guy is, in a way, the Kevin Feige of microbudgeted horror films.

I bet that TOD will make at least 40 million dollars in the US, or more than ten times its budget.

Another triumph for Blumhouse.

10x the budget isn't so great when you spend 5-10x the budget in marketing

[TalismanRing]

30 minutes ago, Alli said:

Makes sense. I'm worried about MI-Fallout. Only 20M views and i bet most are from OS

M-I skews a bit older than the typical action film/blockbuster.  In YT views I'd look to comparisons for the last IM, the recent Bourne and Bond and other Cruise movies.

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, StevenG said:

I guess that you cannot bet against three things in Hollywood: the MCU, James Cameron, and Blum horror. That is as sure a thing as you get.

 

 

but never bet MCU if up against James Cameron

[Alli]

THE NYT says it's a good opening

 

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2018 by Alli