INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, Fancyarcher said:

People their expectations set way too high. 39m is a still a great number. 

 

 

I am unsure why people think it beating TLJ domestic opening is a letdown? 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

We should've suspected something when no one bothered to "steal" deadlines exclusive numbers...

Yea no one should ever ever ever listen to EarlyDeadlinePredictions 

Edited April 27, 2018 by Nova

[Wonder Midget]

I'm at the local Liemax in Warrington, Pa, waiting for the noon showing. The auditorium is empty. I'm surprised. I made sure to get here an hour early to get a good seat. But there are people trickling in.

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, Critically Acclaimed Panda said:

I think with 39m previews that puts a realistic IW OW range somewhere between 215m - 250m

 

Absolute lowest I could see it going is around 190-200m.

 

Absolute highest I could see it go is around 270m (if it’s IM really does end up playing more like AoU or Civil War)

 

But I wouldn’t bet on anything outside a 215-250m which puts the OW record in play but a stretch.

 

 

 

No way it can be more front loaded then TLJ so min is 200 million. 

[Jonwo]

I wonder if Disney will shift the next Avengers film up a week as well or keep it in May?

[The Futurist]

We need Nikki back.

Her alcohol infused guestimates were better.

 

[The Panda]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

Too bad movieman isnt here. A tiny bit if my gloating is in store.

I have to say, everyone’s hype made my OW predict for the Summer game slowly creep up from 225m-230m to 245m.  I’m again feeling regret for not going with my initial prediction and letting the mood of the forum sway my prediction.

[Eldenfirefly]

Don't underestimate the casuals showing up for this. This is a must watch and I really believe it won't be front loaded at all. This isn't star wars. How many casuals rush out to watch previews for a superhero movie? But they will nevertheless turn up to watch it this weekend. TFA's records are in serious danger of falling here, I believe.

[Cooper Legion]

15 minutes ago, Giesi said:

If IW1 doesn‘t take the OW crown this weekend, I don‘t know which movie will. Certainly not Ep9, Avengers 4 or Lion King.

Even if IW misses, A4 will have a very pompetitive shot. Even a 5% improvement on IW might be enough to take the record.

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

Some individual markets. No unique region...it's doing well all over.

 

[Not really]

TA, JW, and TFA all did around 190mil without previews. IW would have to do closer to 210 to break the OW record. It's possible, but unlikely. TLJ is a goner, though.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Critically Acclaimed Panda said:

I have to say, everyone’s hype made my OW predict for the Summer game slowly creep up from 225m-230m to 245m.  I’m again feeling regret for not going with my initial prediction and letting the mood of the forum sway my prediction.

You have to remember we're an echo chamber, the hype always spirals out of control.

 

The echo chamber includes reddit, imbd, rt.. etc

[Jessie]

19 minutes ago, RandomCat said:

I see CJohn has gone mad with power this weekend.

[The Panda]

8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

I am unsure why people think it beating TLJ domestic opening is a letdown? 

 

Its not a letdown and shouldn’t be seen as one.  But when for the last month you’ve had a large group of members claim OW record was the floor and 300m OW was a real possibility then of course people are going to cry disappointment.  They created crazy expectations.

 

Even during TFA’s insane run, there were a few members who were unimpressed because our predictions got way out of hand (even for a movie that did insane numbers).

Edited April 27, 2018 by Critically Acclaimed Panda

[That One Girl]

229M prediction looking good

[fabiopazzo2]

3 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

So... 90-95M 😂

[LonePirate]

1 minute ago, The Futurist said:

We need Nikki back.

Her alcohol infused guestimates were better.

 

 

So many people around here have no memory of the glorious updates from Nikki. Deadline’s updates have never been the same since she left. They certainly are not anywhere as entertaining.

[POTUS 2020]

 

China could come close to the Dom OW

[BugsBunny]

Okay so let's think about this NFL Draft situation.

 

In 2014 the first round of the NFL draft got 32mm viewers: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000348839/article/nfl-draft-sets-ratings-record-with-32-million-viewers

 

In 2014 the first round of the NFL draft had an 8.7 rating, this year it was an 8.3 rating: https://twitter.com/AustinKarp/status/989882465031458818

 

 

 

That's a 5% lower rating, so figure 30mm people were watching the NFL draft last night. 

 

You only need about 100k people for every $1mm of DOM. I think you have to assume there's a decent overlap between opening night CBM attendees and NFL draft watchers.

 

Point is - multiplier could be bigger than we expect if Thursday is artificially deflated by external competition.