Monday Numbers - A:IW 24.74M

[Caladbolg]

14 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

It started a few good years ago.

 

Anyone remember when exactly? Was it after The Dark Knight Rises? 

I recall it popping up around CA1 since there had been 4 other superhero  movies in the same year prior to its release.  But as the MCU does now it did then and proved no such thing really exists.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Caladbolg

[Sam]

Still can’t see anything close to or over 60% drop on second weekend at all.

 

Earlier thinking with such a big OW and 39M in previews, 57% is where it’ll land, but atm, I think -55% gonna be worst case 

 

 

[Krissykins]

Quick prediction and I guess: 

 

$2.087b

[NCsoft]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Quick prediction and I guess: 

 

$2.087b

did you mean 2.187B？ 

[Krissykins]

Just now, NCsoft said:

did you mean 2.187B？ 

Nooooooo lol 

[PenguinHyphy]

Some of the weekend two projections are silly. Infinity War is not going to have a similar upcoming Friday to the comparable one for Force Awakens, which is on Christmas Day. Be realistic now. 

Edited May 1, 2018 by PenguinHyphy

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, Caladbolg said:

I recall it popping up around CA1 since there had been 4 other superhero  movies in the same year prior to its release.  But as the MCU does now it did then and proved no such thing really exists.

Superhero Fatigue was an argument made at least as far back as 2005/2006 when Marvel Studios decided to produce it's own movies. From this great  article on the founding of the film studio

 

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/05/01/8375925/

Quote

 

Some Hollywood critics are already whispering that Marvel is crazy to try this. They say most of its best-known characters have already been cinematized: Spider-Man is one thing; Shang-Chi, a crime-fighting martial artist who's also on the Marvel film slate, another. Marvel also faces plenty of competition: Last summer Batman Begins, based on the DC Comics caped crusader, outslugged Marvel's Fantastic Four, and this summer DC Comics's Superman Returns is expected by some analysts to generate about $400 million in U.S. box office alone. [ Edit: ]

 

Others speculate that the superhero film craze may fade by 2008, when the first Marvel films are released. And the Marvel magic has already shown some signs of wobbling, as evidenced by 2003's The Hulk, a disappointment despite being directed by the celebrated Ang Lee, and 2005's Elektra, a certifiable dog. "There could be oversaturation," says Arvind Bhatia, an analyst with Sterne Agee & Leach.

 

 

[NCsoft]

27 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Even being extremely conservative this should do a min of 1.850 billion right now. 

 

So I think the WW total will likely reach fanboy prediction levels lol. 

Never thought 2B was possible for MCU at this stage, but 2B seems locked.

[sfran43]

 

[bamajagala]

Amazing numbers for AIW! I wish Disney's stock price would follow.  As unmathced as Disney's IP in studio entertainment is, it just doesn't move the needle.  Their biggest releases since the start of 2015, WW grosses IN BILLIONS:

TFA: 2.068 

AIW: est 2.3

AOU: 1.405

BP: est 1.35 

TLJ: 1.332

BATB: 1.263 

CW: 1.153

RO: 1.056

FD: 1.029

ZOOTOPIA: 1.024

TJB: .967

GOTG2: .864

INSIDE OUT: .857

THORRAG: .854

COCO: .800

DOCSTRANGE: .678

MOANA: .643

CINDERALLA: .543

TOTAL GROSS :  est 20.186 BILLION

 

This is just their top 18 grossers.  None of these titles have done anything for share price.  In almost 3.5 years, DIS stock has gone from 94/share to 99/share, basically nowhere in a bull market.  Studio entertainment is only 16.3% of DIS revenue while parks/resorts and media networks account for almost 75% (consumer products is the lowest revenue category 9%).  It seems all anybody cares about is ESPN and cord cutting as the major drivers.  As much as I love box office and have followed it for 20 years, investing in a company based on box office perfomance is futile.  That's not to say that DIS isn't thrilled by the studio perfomance over the course of the last 10 years, it just pales in comparison to other segments they own.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

Remember Infinity War also has zero competition. Not a single film opening in over 1,500 locations and no holdovers making over $10m. 

 

 

[eXtacy]

Just now, sfran43 said:

 

 

Its also only 39 votes on this poll 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, sfran43 said:

 

Wow in their previous poll the majority of users (27%) expected IW to open to over $260m, so close. 

[LonePirate]

24 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Superhero stories really are modern day fairy tales or folk tales. There won't be fatigue because they're such a big part of our culture or even our existence now.

That is exceptionally short-sighted of you. Every genre waxes and wanes. Westerns were once king in Hollywood. Now look at them. Rom coms were everywhere 10-20 years ago. Now look at them. Superhero stories will fall out of favor someday as well. Just give it time.

[sfran43]

 

[XO21]

The last time I’ve seen “superhero fatigue” used was before Logan and the 2017 CBM run. 

[IceFire9yt]

Is the 'spillover effect' even a real thing?  Because I looked through the top openers and I'm not seeing any movies that look like what you'd expect from the spillover effect. Almost every movie that had a soft Monday drop ended up with good legs.

 

There are a few movies that almost fit the criteria.  Civil War and BvS both had soft Monday drops after very harsh Sunday drops, so those don't quite fit.  DH2 also had a good Sunday drop, but it was in Summer, after a very frontloaded weekend, so spillover doesn't make sense as an explanation either.

 

So are there movies that demonstrate spillover?

Edited May 1, 2018 by IceFire9yt

[Barnack]

45 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

Honestly, where did that argument come from?? 🤣 

 

Looking at those (quickly made without checking, just using Mojo criteria for SH movies) from:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=superhero.htm&sort=date&order=DESC&adjust_yr=2018&p=.htm

 

 

Year	Movies	Domestic total	Adjusted for inflation	Average
2018	2	$946,063,100.00	$946,063,100.00	$473,031,550.00
2017	8	$2,168,052,135.00	$2,211,324,400.00	$276,415,550.00
2016	8	$1,900,526,316.00	$2,011,707,200.00	$251,463,400.00
2015	3	$695,325,579.00	$752,540,100.00	$250,846,700.00
2014	6	$1,443,451,221.00	$1,606,624,900.00	$267,770,816.67
2013	5	$1,067,774,489.00	$1,185,391,000.00	$237,078,200.00
2012	5	$1,449,876,849.00	$1,674,671,800.00	$334,934,360.00
2011	6	$719,802,364.00	$824,549,100.00	$137,424,850.00
2010	3	$508,920,487.00	$589,072,800.00	$196,357,600.00
2009	3	$287,423,911.00	$352,924,000.00	$117,641,333.33
2008	9	$1,480,257,019.00	$1,888,181,900.00	$209,797,988.89
2007	3	$584,254,637.00	$777,873,900.00	$259,291,300.00
2006	4	$468,963,277.00	$655,832,700.00	$163,958,175.00
2005	5	$496,369,072.00	$708,907,300.00	$141,781,460.00
2004	6	$821,075,349.00	$1,210,139,900.00	$201,689,983.33
2003	3	$449,670,446.00	$683,081,400.00	$227,693,800.00
2002	3	$497,467,108.00	$784,302,700.00	$261,434,233.33
2001	1	$14,694,904.00	$23,781,900.00	$23,781,900.00
2000	3	$252,324,332.00	$428,238,300.00	$142,746,100.00

 

Would that talk was a 2015 thing and rapidly went away after that with no one talking a fatigue (but trying to predict when it could happen in the future) ?

 

I thnk I came on this message board around early 2017, and I had at the time looked at the annual Superheroes box office and already then it did look ridiculous to be talking about a current fatigue with the genre making much more even ticket adjusted than the big 2008 or 2012 year's.

 

I would imagine that since late 2016/2017 no one serious is suggesting there is currently a fatigue and it is just people making straw men/meme of talking about non-existent fatigue claim made by no one.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Barnack

[Lordmandeep]

The issue without comic book movies, the number of movies I would have watched in theatre in the past year would be one...

 

and  I think that would apply to a lot of guys.

 

 

They simply won't pay 10-20 bucks to watch random action movie these days. 

Edited May 1, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, PPZVGOS said:

Yeah, my bad. 

 

I find it hard to understand why the Japanese market is so weak in recent years (for Hollywood products) 

An aging population so many of the larger US tent poles don't appeal as much and a very strong local movie market that makes every other genre they want.