Monday Numbers - A:IW 24.74M

[The Futurist]

Every movie (except Spiderman 3 & HP 8) that broke the opening week-end had  a 3 multiplier minimum.

IW will be no different.

700M is locked.

750M+ looks good.

800M highly possible.

 

More than 800m not as impossible  as you d think.

 

Glad I could help.

 

Edited May 1, 2018 by The Futurist

[jaybox]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

IW2 > A2. A2 will be huge but it will drop from 1. That was a phenomenon that capitalized on kickstarting the doomed 3D craze.

I've learned after Titanic and Avatar, both of which i consider to be the most overrated movies around; and I consider T2 the GOAT action movie so i respect Cameron too. I can't count out Avatar 2. That dude just seems to connect with audiences - all time only Spielberg during his heyday could be argued as being better in this department.  Wouldn't be shocked if Avatar 2 grossed like 3.5 billion or something (even though i don't think it will. I think it will drop but it just can't be counted out)

[Birdo Mandingo]

2 minutes ago, bladels said:

IW is already so huge, discount Tuesday may end up hurting it.

I say 5-10% decrease 

how so? Most places I have seen discount Tuesday they mainly offer much cheaper food and beverages (Like a medium coke and medium popcorn for 4 bucks when otherwise it is like 12+ bucks)  are the tickets actually cheaper in many places too?

[Rebeccas]

Just now, jjack339 said:

how so? Most places I have seen discount Tuesday they mainly offer much cheaper food and beverages (Like a medium coke and medium popcorn for 4 bucks when otherwise it is like 12+ bucks)  are the tickets actually cheaper in many places too?

Yes, tickets are cheaper for certain chains.

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Is Marvel going to be the first studio to have two films over $600M in the same year? Even adjusted for inflation?

I guess.

I think WD was the first studio with two over 500M last year and adjusted in 2016.

(might have missed one year by another studio though)

 

EDIT:

Universal did it in 1973 with the Sting (adj. 816M) and American Graffiti (adj. 602M)!!

 

Second Edit: 1950 was the first time that two films grossed more than 500M adj. (one from Paramount and one from Disney), 1973 the first time two from the Same Studio grossed more than 500M (Uni).

Other Years: 1959, 1961, 1964 (3x), 1965, 1965 (3x), 1967, 1972, 1973 (3x), 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977 (3x), 1978 (3x), 1982, 1984, 1994, 1996, 1997, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 (3x), 2012, 2015, 2016 (Disney and Disney), 2017 (Disney and Disney), 2018 (Disney and Disney)

 

1959 was the first time two films grossed more than 600M adj. (one from MGM and one from Disney)

1964 (Disney and UA)

1965 (MGM, Fox and UA and MGM (Sound of Music 1.3B$)) and FOX (Doctor Zhivago 1.1B$)) films adj. to over 1.1B!!!

1967 (Disney and Avco)

1970 (Uni and Par)

1973 (Uni, Uni and WB (WB's the Exorcist (over 1B!) and Uni's the Sting both over 800M!)

1984 (Par and Col)

1994 (Par and Dis (both movies adj to over 700M)

2015 (Uni and Dis (First time unadjusted))

2018 (Dis and Dis (first chance for two 700M+ unadjusted))

Edited May 1, 2018 by Taruseth

[GraceRandolph]

10 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

With that Monday I think 600 million is done deal..

 

It be over 440 million min by Sunday. 

 

With a wide open third weekend it will slightly stabilize

 

If there was no Deadpool 700 million would happen. 

This movie ruining everything!!!!

 

Thankfully Disney will serve karma when they cut its legs of with “SOLO”

[eXtacy]

15 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:

Infinity War sitting at 282.9, crossing $300m today.

What type of range are we looking at Sunday night with estimates? 50% drop this weekend is still $128m & it could happen. It's got discount Tuesday today and that will be $30m+ most likely, right?

It looks like anything around $475-485m domestic might be in play, right? That is a hell of a 10 day total!!

Absolutely not. Expect 26m at most for Tuesday. See increases below for May MCU tentpoles.

 

Ultron -0.7%, Civil War 3.5%, Avengers -6.5%, Iron Man 3 0.2%

Edited May 1, 2018 by eXtacy

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Every movie that broke the opening week-end had  a 3 multiplier minimum.

IW will be no different.

700M is locked.

750M+ looks good.

800M highly possible.

 

More than 800m not as impossible  as you d think.

 

Glad I could help.

 

 

Well, Spider-Man 3 broke the record and had s terrible multi. That was from a completely different box office era though.

[Rebeccas]

Just now, Mango said:

 

Well, Spider-Man 3 broke the record and had s terrible multi. That was from a completely different box office era though.

Also Harry Potter.

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, Mango said:

Friendly reminder that gigantic premieres usually don't feel the effects of discount Tuesday. A slight decrease wouldn't be anything out of the ordinary followed by a softer than normal Wednesday drop.

Yeah, it'll stay within 5% of today. Anything more would be outstanding or kind of weak  

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Well, Spider-Man 3 broke the record and had s terrible multi. That was from a completely different box office era though.

 

 

yeah it fell by almost 74% on Monday which was crazy high after such a huge opening. 

[Krissykins]

19 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

With that Monday I think 600 million is done deal..

 

It be over 440 million min by Sunday. 

 

With a wide open third weekend it will slightly stabilize

 

If there was no Deadpool 700 million would happen. 

$600m is locked (that’s only a 2.3x).

Edited May 1, 2018 by Krissykins

[titanic2187]

A bunch of porn are now riding on the waves of IW's phenomena. 

 

One of the synopsis I read as

"On a mission to collect all six Infinity Stones, Thanos plans to use the artifacts to inflict his twisted will on reality. To delay his plan, Black widow, Scarlet Witch, Mantis and Gamora were deployed to Titan." 

 

The writer certainly has no idea about gamora is thanos' daugther. 

[Rebeccas]

Just now, Krissykins said:

$600m is locked (that’s only a 2.3x).

 

As someone said above, no movie that broke the opening weekend record has ever failed to get a 3x multiplier. 

Um Deathly Hallows Part 2.

[Birdo Mandingo]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Well, Spider-Man 3 broke the record and had s terrible multi. That was from a completely different box office era though.

and the WOM for that movie was pretty toxic pretty fast.

 

I mean for IW the WOM is nuts. I was listening to the radio this morning(the typical 90-now hits type station) and the female DJ spent several minutes raving about how amazing it was, even if the ending "was not what she expected". She then on to say it again it was realllly good and she was not surprised by how much it made and it deserved every dollar it earned.

[Thrylos 7]

Oh man, this Deadpool 2 , a movie that is being released during IW FOURTH weekend is so boring. At least wait and see what the overall number for IW will be when d2 opens.

[PPZVGOS]

29 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

your off your bloody rocker!

In matter of fact, I just went through the minor trouble of going through comparative numbers for the most relevant film (The Avengers, 2012) The percentage at which AIW is over-performing that film is increasing by the day. 

 

The conclusions are inevitable. 

[The Futurist]

9 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Well, Spider-Man 3 broke the record and had s terrible multi. That was from a completely different box office era though.

Thx, I knew there was one I was forgetting.

 

But it still proves my point.

 

Spiderman 3 is the most divisive (hated now) film of all the opening week-end breakers movies.

 

EDIT : My theory only doens't work with Potter 8 I guess, beloved movie that failed to have great legs.

Edited May 1, 2018 by The Futurist

[Rebeccas]

2 minutes ago, jjack339 said:

and the WOM for that movie was pretty toxic pretty fast.

 

I mean for IW the WOM is nuts. I was listening to the radio this morning(the typical 90-now hits type station) and the female DJ spent several minutes raving about how amazing it was, even if the ending "was not what she expected". She then on to say it again it was realllly good and she was not surprised by how much it made and it deserved every dollar it earned.

106.7 Lite-FM even had a middle aged sounding guy raving about it and reminiscing about how he used to spend his childhood at his local comic book store.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Rebeccas

[PPZVGOS]

10 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Also Harry Potter.

Spider-Man 3 & DH2 were both atrocious films. AIW is the best MCU film to date and at least the 2nd best superhero film ever. That is why it will have much better legs than those 2. 

 

You will see.