Venom | 5 OCTOBER 2018 | Sony | Tom Hardy is Venom. Social Media reactions coming in

[Firepower]

People who use Power Rangers as an argument against Venom forget about 1 very important detail: Power Rangers trailer has just 177k likes on 42 mln views. Venom trailer has 1.3 mln(!) likes on 67 mln views, more than any other comic book movie ever besides both Infinity War trailers, which means genuine interest of the audience in this movie. I agree that just number of views is not very reliable, but combination of views and likes says something.

[Barnack]

7 hours ago, AJG said:

Yep. 40m views.

 

Are you trolling as usual or have just no idea what a correlation factor is ? (or both ?)

Edited August 7, 2018 by Barnack

[Barnack]

7 hours ago, AndyK said:

There is no correlation between YT trailer views and OW box office.

Lol. What ?

[Barnack]

15 hours ago, AJG said:

 

Yep. 40m views.

 

 

Xmen Apoc was also Fox’s biggest trailer ever (I think it still is)

Look at the movies that opened above power rangers in 2017:

 

There is not that many among the 165 movie of that year with a wide release  (it opened in the top 15% of the wide release, far from the bottom)

 

And a lot of them had more views while none had a low amount of views:

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)	220.01	92.221
Beauty and the Beast (Disney)	174.751	80.077
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney)	146.51	57.324
IT (Warner / New Line)	123.403	50.65
Thor: Ragnarok (Disney)	122.745	96.56
Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony / Columbia)	117.028	93.87
Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)	103.251	84.205
The Fate of the Furious (Universal)	98.787	30.87
Justice League (Warner Bros.)	93.842	107.332
Logan (Fox)	88.412	44.196
Despicable Me 3 (Universal)	72.434	69.414
Pirates of the Caribbean:	62.983	34.99
Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.)	61.025	35.309
War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)	56.263	34.246
Cars 3 (Disney)	53.689	75.283
The LEGO Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)	53.003	31.231
Coco (Disney) #	50.803	16.259
Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)	50.513	42.927
The Boss Baby (Fox / DWorks Anim.)	50.199	52.292
Fifty Shades Darker (Universal)	46.607	52.612
Transformers: The Last Knight (Paramount) #	44.68	40.386
Power Rangers (Lionsgate)	40.3	59.296

 

 

The movies that openned higher to power rangers had an average 58.2m views on the boxofficereport.com way of counting them before release 

 

The movies that openned lower than power rangers had in average 9.5m views.

 

And other important point, no movie that openned lower than Power rangers had more views either. My excel give me a correlation factor of .84 for 2017 using that very limited, 0 adjustment for genre/target audience, mpaa rating, etc... metric, not something near to 0.

 

X-Men Apoc is one of Fox biggest opening of all time (specially considering the bad exchange rate at the time of that release, is intl OW was bigger than Days of Future Past using the same exchange rate for both), how is that supposed to show a lack of correlation ?

https://deadline.com/2016/05/x-men-apocalypse-captain-america-angry-birds-weekend-results-international-box-office-1201760967/

1 in 76 markets, and is the biggest Fox debut weekend ever in six... top X-Men opening ever in 33 markets. 

 

 

Edited August 8, 2018 by Barnack

[AndyK]

48 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Look at the movie that openned above power rangers in 2017:

 

A lot of them had more views, none had a low amount of views:

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)	220.01	92.221
Beauty and the Beast (Disney)	174.751	80.077
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney)	146.51	57.324
IT (Warner / New Line)	123.403	50.65
Thor: Ragnarok (Disney)	122.745	96.56
Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony / Columbia)	117.028	93.87
Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)	103.251	84.205
The Fate of the Furious (Universal)	98.787	30.87
Justice League (Warner Bros.)	93.842	107.332
Logan (Fox)	88.412	44.196
Despicable Me 3 (Universal)	72.434	69.414
Pirates of the Caribbean:	62.983	34.99
Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.)	61.025	35.309
War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)	56.263	34.246
Cars 3 (Disney)	53.689	75.283
The LEGO Batman Movie (Warner Bros.)	53.003	31.231
Coco (Disney) #	50.803	16.259
Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)	50.513	42.927
The Boss Baby (Fox / DWorks Anim.)	50.199	52.292
Fifty Shades Darker (Universal)	46.607	52.612
Transformers: The Last Knight (Paramount) #	44.68	40.386
Power Rangers (Lionsgate)	40.3	59.296

 

 

The movies that openned higher to power rangers had an average 58.2m views on the boxofficereport.com way of counting them before release 

 

The movies that openned lower than power rangers had in average 9.5m views.

 

And other important point, no movie that openned lower than Power rangers had more views either. My excel give me a correlation factor of .84 for 2017 using that very limited, 0 adjustment for genre/target audience, mpaa rating, etc... metric, not something near to 0.

 

X-Men Apoc is one of Fox biggest opening of all time (specially considering the exchange rate at the time of that release), how is that supposed to show a lack of correlation ?

https://deadline.com/2016/05/x-men-apocalypse-captain-america-angry-birds-weekend-results-international-box-office-1201760967/

1 in 76 markets, and is the biggest Fox debut weekend ever in six... top X-Men opening ever in 33 markets. 

 

 

That list just highlights how completely useless YT trailer views are in determining  OW BO.

 

What it tells us is that if Venom gets 30m trailer views, it will open somewhere between $15m and $100m.

 

Brilliant !

 

I'll go and place my bet now.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, AndyK said:

That list just highlights how completely useless YT trailer views are in determining  OW BO.

 

What it tells us is that if Venom gets 30m trailer views, it will open somewhere between $15m and $100m.

 

Brilliant !

 

I'll go and place my bet now.

Fair enough, same could be said for theater count, production budget or marketing budget, no one would go around saying those have zero correlation with the opening weekend of a movie (and even you will find them crazy if they would say so) just because it is hard to make good prediction just from them, the correlation is still very obvious.

 

Yet it would not surprise me if those 3 metric have a lower correlation with OW than youtube trailers viewcount.

 

It is so obvious that there is an extremely strong correlation between people deciding to watch trailers on youtube and their box office, it is not like rotten tomatoes score where you need to work a lot to find one. You will never see a graph like they do for metacritic score or RT score showing absolutely no if not even a negative link between them and the box office.

 

If you compare very similar movie for example Rampage & Skyscraper. Look how much exactly the same they played:

 

Rampage (Warner / New Line)

Apr. 13, 2018

35.753

35.496

1.007

Skyscraper (Universal / Legendary)

Jul. 13, 2018

24.905

26.649

0.935

 

Someone would have used the youtube views to predict Skyscraper, he would have been pretty spot on.

 

Look at big superheroes movies, how many played in the same +/-15%:

 

Avengers: Infinity War (Disney)	257.698	243.509	1.058
Incredibles 2 (Disney)	182.688	159.73	1.144
Justice League (Warner Bros.)	93.842	107.332	0.874
Deadpool 2 (Fox)	125.507	101.662	1.235
Thor: Ragnarok (Disney)	122.745	96.56	1.271
Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony / Columbia)	117.028	93.87	1.247
Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)	103.251	84.205	1.226
Black Panther (Disney)	202.004	57.837	3.493
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney)	146.51	57.324	2.556
Logan (Fox)	88.412	44.196	2
Ant-Man and The Wasp (Disney)	75.812	39.373	1.925

 

Doing very little of work with the demography of a certain type of movie, the genre/mpaa rating, domestic/intl ratio and we would come out with an over 0.92 correlation ratio I am pretty certain.

 

 

 

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

I personally believe YT views and likes can help with predicting box office.

 

I remember how low Solo's views/likes/retweets were compared to other summer movies.

[Hades]

Just now, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

I personally believe YT views and likes can help with predicting box office.

 

I remember how low Solo's views/likes/retweets were compared to other summer movies.

People were still expecting really big numbers, because Star Wars.....Lol...Mary Poppins poor trailer views is also a warning sign for that film.

[AndyK]

Go on then, predict Venom OW !

 

Lets see who gets within 15%

[Barnack]

18 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

I personally believe YT views and likes can help with predicting box office.

 

I remember how low Solo's views/likes/retweets were compared to other summer movies.

Solo is an example of us downplaying youtube views way too much (I know I was in quite denial about an aging fanbase that watch them on tv/facebook/twitter more than manually going on youtube, etc..), a bit like cinemascore it is quite fuzzy but extreme like that should be telling almost every-time.

 

Solo had just 30% of Last Jedi views with how box office report calculated them (29.2%),

 

Domestic Estimated ticket according to mojo

Last jedi: 67,594,900

Solo: 22,711,000

 

22,711,000 / 67,594,900, 33.5%, with Solo being more domestic heavy.

 

OW

9,000,100 / 23,966,200 = 37.5%

 

If we adjust for how more domestic heavy solo was

 

(9,000,100/.544) / (23,966,200/.465) = 32%

 

They played very similarly to their respective trailer views I think.

Edited August 7, 2018 by Barnack

[MrGlass2]

3 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Go on then, predict Venom OW ! 

  

Lets see who gets within 15% 

Even if anyone here was claiming you can predict OW very precisely on YouTube alone (and nobody is saying that: it is merely correlated), then your question still wouldn't make sense. Because we would have to wait for the final trailer and final YT views number.

[Barnack]

5 hours ago, AndyK said:

Go on then, predict Venom OW !

 

Lets see who gets within 15%

With just OW, my prediction is:

 

Extremelly unlikely to be a small OW (under 35m), like Green Hornet / Fan 4 had.

 

Just for a test, predict those movie:

 

Movie A opening in 4,100 theater

Movie B has a 130m budget

Movie C has a 52m domestic theatrical release budget

Movie D has 100m view on youtube

 

Would you ever say that because just knowing that a movie open in 4,100 theater just tell you that it can do 8m or 250m that there is no correlation, that you do not look on theater count when predicting an openning ?

 

That a 180m movie can do Valerian/King Arthur opening and lower than a Break Out 5m movie or break that all time record and do Jurassic World opening that there is no tendency what so ever, a 0 correlation for the bigger budget to have bigger opening OW ?

 

Edited August 8, 2018 by Barnack

[grim22]

Will be PG-13

 

 

[MovieMan89]

edit: nvm

Edited August 9, 2018 by MovieMan89

[AJG]

Quote

Any Spider-Man movie will carry a PG-13 rating because the wall-crawler is more family friendly, and if “Venom” is too dark and gory, it might preclude other film match-ups, not just with Peter Parker’s alter-ego, but also with other members of the extended Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU).

 

 Sony is open to having other characters from its Spider-Man films pop up in Marvel movies that are produced under the Disney aegis, and would presumably also like to see an Avenger or two cameo in its own movies.

 

Interesting...

[MrGlass2]

Quote

The feeling is that will give the studio greater leeway for future installments that will feature Spider-Man, something “Venom” does not do.

Or they're keeping the cameo a surprise.

[Yandereprime101189]

https://deadline.com/2018/08/silver-and-black-halted-venom-black-cat-nightwatch-sony-marvel-movies-1202443207/

 

Quote

The expansion of the Spider-Man universe, outside of Homecoming and without Disney Marvel’s Kevin Feige, hinges on the opening of bad webslinger Venom during the first weekend of October which just underwent reshoots in California. The film is expected to maintain a hard PG-13 rating.

 

Edited August 9, 2018 by Yandereprime101189

[WittyUsername]

39 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Will be PG-13

 

 

Looks like Tom Hardy's kid will get to see the movie after all. 

 

Seriously though, I'm not trying to suggest that being "edgy" automatically makes something better, but this movie probably would've been better off with an R-rating. It looks pretty generic as it is, and not being able to go all out with the violence isn't going to help. 

[cheesypoofs]

Where does it say will be PG-13? All I see is that it might be PG-13

[dudalb]

It's going to be a  PG-13. The kids love Spidey and the Spidey charecters too much for SONY to pass up all those ticket sales.

I think people who thought otherwise were being pretty unrealistic.

Edited August 9, 2018 by dudalb