AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[AndyChrono]

23 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

OS weekdays works differently. Sometimes it is equal to the weekend before it. 

Sure, sometimes. However, I've yet to see evidence that this would be one of those times. Since folks were bringing up Mexico numbers earlier, here's the weekend numbers for Mexico which has been one of EG's stronger markets. As we can see, EG dropped over 90% (!!!) in Mexico, which strongly suggests that theaters basically mass dumped it. Weekend numbers from Russia are not yet available, but EG dropped from over 200k last weekend to making just 2k on Thursday, which would suggest the weekend would have also been a 90%+ drop. I suspect these are not the only cases like this. It seems like some countries are just playing EG for a week to cash in and then slashing all of its screens.

[ZattMurdock]

13 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

Sure, sometimes. However, I've yet to see evidence that this would be one of those times. Since folks were bringing up Mexico numbers earlier, here's the weekend numbers for Mexico which has been one of EG's stronger markets. As we can see, EG dropped over 90% (!!!) in Mexico, which strongly suggests that theaters basically mass dumped it. Weekend numbers from Russia are not yet available, but EG dropped from over 200k last weekend to making just 2k on Thursday, which would suggest the weekend would have also been a 90%+ drop. I suspect these are not the only cases like this. It seems like some countries are just playing EG for a week to cash in and then slashing all of its screens.

Mexico plus Italy almost makes for $1m together. Actually, thank you for bringing this up, can we actually try to make sense of OS numbers with the data we have avaliable? @Charlie Jatinder?

 

Mexico: $0.636m

Italy: $0.340m

 

And if we believe BOM, another $0.088m from Australia alone. Something seems clearly afoot here. Jatinder, thoughts?

Edited July 9, 2019 by Zatt Hawkguy Murdock

[druv10]

17 minutes ago, Zatt Hawkguy Murdock said:

Mexico plus Italy almost makes for $1m together. Actually, thank you for bringing this up, can we actually try to make sense of OS numbers with the data we have avaliable? @Charlie Jatinder?

 

Mexico: $0.636m

Italy: $0.340m

 

And if we believe BOM, another $0.088m from Australia alone. Something seems clearly afoot here. Jatinder, thoughts?

Your Mexican number is wrong. It made .636M in local currency and about $33K in dollars.

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, druv10 said:

Your Mexican number is wrong. It made .636M in local currency and about $33K in dollars.

Oh, got it.

[Sagemode87]

1 hour ago, Zatt Hawkguy Murdock said:

And HOLY SHIT, Singapore:

 

 Would've been nice if they gave those away in the US market. 

Edited July 9, 2019 by Sagemode87

[Doctor Stark]

@Sagemode87 I know right, I didn’t even get a poster. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

[Doctor Stark]

At least the $405k Monday number tells us Endgame should have a normal run from here on out and not totally collapse.

[JimiQ]

5 hours ago, Zatt Hawkguy Murdock said:

And HOLY SHIT, Singapore:

 

 

That's how you pamper your most loyal fans. Good job, Marvel!

[ZattMurdock]

40 minutes ago, Doctor Stark said:

At least the $405k Monday number tells us Endgame should have a normal run from here on out and not totally collapse.

When you take in consideration that that was a 51% drop of a clearly inflated Monday, that is pretty fucking impressive. $857m doesn't seem so crazy after all.

[Alexandros]

I see someone on Era speculating that the movie might leave US theaters on the 11th because he can't book tickets online after that date. Is that a possibility? 

[nguyenkhoi282]

That's it folks. This model would work (based on IW).

•‎10th <= Pre-Spider-Man

-weekend (6.1) [+305%] = 841.9
-‎weekdays (2.9) = 844.8

•‎11th <= Far From Home

-weekend (3.1) [-49%] = 847.9
-‎weekdays (1.7) = 849.6

•12th 

-weekend (2.2) [-29%] = 851.8
-‎weekdays (1.6) = 853.4

•13th <= The Lion King

-weekend (1.6) [-27%] = 855
-‎weekdays (1.1) = 856.1

 

IW add 6.2M more from a 1.6M weekend, or if we use multiplier from this particular July 19-21th weekend, +7.5M. I'd go with 6.9M.

 

=> Final = $863M (2.42x multiplier)

 

 

[nguyenkhoi282]

20 minutes ago, Alexandros said:

I see someone on Era speculating that the movie might leave US theaters on the 11th because he can't book tickets online after that date. Is that a possibility? 

Why? I mean it's not like the summer schedule is that crowded lmao. It is having higher PTA than many movies so those should leave first.

[PKMLover]

8 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

That's it folks. This model would work (based on IW).

•‎10th <= Pre-Spider-Man

-weekend (6.1) [+305%] = 841.9
-‎weekdays (2.9) = 844.8

•‎11th <= Far From Home

-weekend (3.1) [-49%] = 847.9
-‎weekdays (1.7) = 849.6

•12th 

-weekend (2.2) [-29%] = 851.8
-‎weekdays (1.6) = 853.4

•13th <= The Lion King

-weekend (1.6) [-27%] = 855
-‎weekdays (1.1) = 856.1

 

IW add 6.2M more from a 1.6M weekend, or if we use multiplier from this particular July 19-21th weekend, +7.5M. I'd go with 6.9M.

 

=> Final = $863M (2.42x multiplier)

 

 

IW only added $1.2M more after the digital release (31th July)

[ZattMurdock]

22 minutes ago, Alexandros said:

I see someone on Era speculating that the movie might leave US theaters on the 11th because he can't book tickets online after that date. Is that a possibility? 

We are having a freaking $400k Monday after a pretty much inflated 4th of July week that Avengers: Endgame has benefited heavily in the domestic market. The PTA of Endgame is better than MiB, that holds considerably more screens than the Avengers film. Of course that there will be a theater drop coming Friday, but there is absolutely no reason for that to be massive, since it’s obvious that Avengers: Endgame is still performing incredibly well.

 

Films so far into its run won’t have dates after Thursday because theaters decide what goes out to make room for what is getting released based on demand and negotiations with studios. It’s completely normal, and speculating about this is absurd. We are here discussing if Endgame might even break into $860m and Jatinder just updated his projection based on the Monday numbers for an $859.06m Dom total:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eEaG17pnLrg98zE84fWvvu_oVCucn0333xLm4QoxbEs/htmlview#

 

Relax, it’s going to be fine, the record is still going down.

[Alexandros]

10 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Why? I mean it's not like the summer schedule is that crowded lmao. It is having higher PTA than many movies so those should leave first.

I have no idea why. It didn't seem realistic to me either but most people have a much better understanding of box office stuff than me so I thought I'd ask just in case.

2 minutes ago, Zatt Hawkguy Murdock said:

We are having a freaking $400k Monday after a pretty much inflated 4th of July week that Avengers: Endgame has benefited heavily in the domestic market. The PTA of Endgame is better than MiB, that holds considerably more screens than the Avengers film. Of course that there will be a theater drop coming Friday, but there is absolutely no reason for that to be massive, since it’s obvious that Avengers: Endgame is still performing incredibly well.

 

Films so far into its run won’t have dates after Thursday because theaters decide what goes out to make room for what is getting released based on demand and negotiations with studios. It’s completely normal, and speculating about this is absurd. We are here discussing if Endgame might even break into $860m and Jatinder just updated his projection based on the Monday numbers for an $859.06m Dom total:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eEaG17pnLrg98zE84fWvvu_oVCucn0333xLm4QoxbEs/htmlview#

 

Relax, it’s going to be fine, the record is still going down.

Thanks, sounds good! 

[Doctor Stark]

This is literally a second wind. It’s not like it just got boosted for a weekend or week. It got that boost, and then dropped normally from that higher total. Well, there were some oddities with the weekdays last week, but still. The trend tells me @nguyenkhoi282‘s $863 million number may end up happening, even though a number like that sounds crazy right now. $855 million is the absolute floor barring some unforeseen collapse.

[Heroicpiglet]

1 hour ago, Alexandros said:

I see someone on Era speculating that the movie might leave US theaters on the 11th because he can't book tickets online after that date. Is that a possibility? 

It sounds naive. Movies stay in theater well after Bluray release. Why is Endgame any different? 

[Alexandros]

2 hours ago, Doctor Stark said:

This is literally a second wind. It’s not like it just got boosted for a weekend or week. It got that boost, and then dropped normally from that higher total. Well, there were some oddities with the weekdays last week, but still. The trend tells me @nguyenkhoi282‘s $863 million number may end up happening, even though a number like that sounds crazy right now. $855 million is the absolute floor barring some unforeseen collapse.

So assuming that $855 million will happen, how much does Endgame need to gross overseas to take down Avatar?

[terrestrial]

18 minutes ago, Alexandros said:

So assuming that $855 million will happen, how much does Endgame need to gross overseas to take down Avatar?

AEG actual acc BOM

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$847,881,150	30.6%
+ Foreign:	$1,924,588,402	69.4%
= Worldwide:	$2,772,469,552

 

= ~ 848

855-848 = 7

 

Rank	Title	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year^
1	Avatar	Fox	$2,788.0	$760.5	27.3%	$2,027.5	72.7%	2009^
2	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$2,772.5	$847.9	30.6%	$1,924.6	69.4%	2019

 

A - AEG = ~ 15.5

15.5 - 7 = ~ 8.5

 

[Alexandros]

16 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

AEG actual acc BOM

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$847,881,150	30.6%
+ Foreign:	$1,924,588,402	69.4%
= Worldwide:	$2,772,469,552

 

= ~ 848

855-848 = 7

 

Rank	Title	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year^
1	Avatar	Fox	$2,788.0	$760.5	27.3%	$2,027.5	72.7%	2009^
2	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$2,772.5	$847.9	30.6%	$1,924.6	69.4%	2019

 

A - AEG = ~ 15.5

15.5 - 7 = ~ 8.5

 

Wow, that's a way more thorough reply than I expected. Thank you very much! Also, Babylon 5 is a fantastic series, I'm a huge fan.