DEADPOOL 2 WEEKEND THREAD | Spoilers = BANNED INTO OBLIVION | Dp2 125M and 300 WW debut...Asgard Sun update pg 123

[MovieMan89]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

not quite a 300m OW or 800m total DOM tho is it movieman89?

TA4 baby. 

[CJohn]

Fantastic hold for IW. I expect an under 30% drop next weekend easily.

[RRA]

50 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I expect it'll be for November 2020 which is quite a long gap for a first sequel. 

 

Derrickson I imagine is back but I wouldn't be fussed if they have a new director.

It is a long gap (blame Sony needing a new Spidey movie in 2019 and Marvel playing ball) but on the bright side Strange made appearances in RAGNAROK and IW (and Avengers 4 Too?) in that meantime. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, CJohn said:

Fantastic hold for IW. I expect an under 30% drop next weekend easily.

I'm thinking this is how it'll play out:

 

7.2M

13M (+81%)

10.4M (-20%)

30.6M Weekend, 51% drop

 

3.5M (-67%)

3.1M (-10%)

2.4M (-22%)

2.2M (-10%)

 

4.8M (+120%)

8.4M (+75%)

8.1M (-4%)

21.3M Weekend, 30% drop

 

The Friday increase could be higher if Disney doesn't use Solo double features to fudge WIT

[Thrylos 7]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Deadpool:

 

53.3M

43M (-19%)

34.4M (-20%)

130.7M Weekend

 

There's still plenty of time for Saturday to go up too.

 

IW:

 

7.2M

13M (+81%)

10.4M (-20%)

30.6M Weekend, 51% drop

 

You are taking RHT highest Saturday estimate for Deadpool, implying that it might even go higher something that didn’t happen in Friday (when deadpool’s number was in the middle of RHT estimate) and the give it a very generous 20% Sunday drop just so it can barely make over 130 million. Strangest things have happened but it doesn’t seem likely.

 

As for next weekend I strongly disagree with people that suggest that solo isn’t direct competition for Deadpool, I believe it is.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Thrylos 7 said:

You are taking RHT highest Saturday estimate for Deadpool, implying that it might even go higher something that didn’t happen in Friday (when deadpool’s number was in the middle of RHT estimate) and the give it a very generous 20% Sunday drop just so it can barely make over 130 million. Strangest things have happened but it doesn’t seem likely.

 

As for next weekend I strongly disagree with people that suggest that solo isn’t direct competition for Deadpool, I believe it is.

Monday is a Canadian holiday, so that Sunday drop is absolutely realistic.

[MovieMan89]

IW may actually end up with the second best multi of any of the live action big budget summer movies. Doubt it beats Fallout's, but could beat everything else. 

[WrathOfHan]

It's going to be pretty fucking hilarious when Infinity War is ahead of all the new releases on June 1  

[Sam]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Fantastic hold for IW. I expect an under 30% drop next weekend easily.

I can maybe see under 30% drop over 4-day. But for 3-day? No way, even The Avengers dropped 34%, and its biggest competition was MIB3, which only opened to 50M+. 

Edited May 20, 2018 by Sam

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Sam said:

I can maybe see under 30% drop over 4-day. But for 3-day? No way, even The Avengers dropped 32%, and its biggest competition was MIB3, which only opened to 50M+. 

Solo isn't going to hurt IW much. It's a fellow Disney title, and IW has already lost large formats.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

I can maybe see under 30% drop over 4-day. But for 3-day? No way, even The Avengers dropped 32%, and its biggest competition was MIB3, which only opened to 50M+. 

If you figure this weekend's gross was deflated due to DP2 and IMAX loss though, then that combined with the holiday could lead to a 30% drop or so. Could see it happening after this weekend's fantastic hold under the circumstances. 

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's going to be pretty fucking hilarious when Infinity War is ahead of all the new releases on June 1  

That is gonna be one really bad weekend. Deadpool 2 left the weekend and nothing moved to it. Weird.

[MovieMan89]

DP2 should have stayed in that slot. Would have made it and IW complete non-factors to both of each other and probably would have helped both a little. 

[Zakiyyah6]

14 minutes ago, B D Joe said:

Moving to summer didn't seem to help Deadpool 2 very much.

For a while I've thought that moving to the Summer was a mistake. I'll wait until weekend 3 to see if I was right.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

That is gonna be one really bad weekend. Deadpool 2 left the weekend and nothing moved to it. Weird.

 

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

DP2 should have stayed in that slot. Would have made it and IW complete non-factors to both of each other and probably would have helped both a little. 

I'm also very mad because that was my birthday  Hopefully Upgrade hits my area because Paramount's lack of confidence in Action Point means it probably sucks

[Zakiyyah6]

I doubt Deadpool drops 20% on Sunday, even with the Canadian Monday Holiday. Not saying it won't happen, just saying that I doubt it. I'm working with a 25% drop when crunching the numbers and see no reason to change that.

Edited May 20, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Sam]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Solo isn't going to hurt IW much. It's a fellow Disney title, and IW has already lost large formats.

 

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If you figure this weekend's gross was deflated due to DP2 and IMAX loss though, then that combined with the holiday could lead to a 30% drop or so. Could see it happening after this weekend's fantastic hold under the circumstances. 

I mean, I see what y’all saying. And the fact that Memorial Day is TA’s 4th weekend while for IW, it’s the 5th weekend throw off the comparison a little.

But still, DP2 should still be pulling in 50M+ weekend, and Solo 100M+, so I’m a bit skeptical in calling sub-30% drops.

 

I think I’m more comfortable in projecting weekends once we have dailies for up to Tuesday at least.

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Monday is a Canadian holiday, so that Sunday drop is absolutely realistic.

Looking at the last few years, Victoria day doesnt seem to have made much if any difference whatsoever to drops on Sunday. 

 

Maybe it might help a new movie like Deadpool but I highly doubt the effect will be very noticeable. 

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

I'm also very mad because that was my birthday  Hopefully Upgrade hits my area because Paramount's lack of confidence in Action Point means it probably sucks

It would also give us one of the most insane 3 weeks run of OS box office with Han Solo, Deadpool 2 and Jurassic World opening in back to back to back weeks. The bloodbath would be enormous.

[RealLyre]

why did Fox project a 133.5M OW when they know the movie is more front-loaded than the first and doesn't have holiday boost?