DEADPOOL 2 WEEKEND THREAD | Spoilers = BANNED INTO OBLIVION | Dp2 125M and 300 WW debut...Asgard Sun update pg 123

[Zakiyyah6]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh Rth confirmed it had zero impact on the Saturday numbers in Australia. 

 

Deadpool looks to be really suffering here in the UK though, down 50% from the first film. 

I'm not surprised that it was hurt by the wedding in the UK.

 

I agree with @baumer that overall the film is going to be a big success. Because it wasn't some over budgeted monstrosity it's going to make Fox a big profit. Unless the legs are the same as the original I think it could drop around 12-17% from the first. If it opens with 125mil. I'll change that range if the numbers come in higher.

[Zakiyyah6]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

I'm just trying to understand how $125M OW off of a film that started with $18.6M in previews is "good" or how it's going to have any legs. A $125M OW on its own is not bad but when you put it in the context of where it started at, that number is very very disappointing. 

If the Sunday drop is not anything special, I agree that it's hard to argue that a sub 2.4 could happen. I'm working from 2.4 being the worst and 2.55 being the best. I am hoping for the best but believe me, I could see it having Civil War type of legs.

[a2k]

I see this at least doing 310, smth like 123*2.52. Tough to see higher than 127*2.6 = 330.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

If the Sunday drop is not anything special, I agree that it's hard to argue that a sub 2.4 could happen. I'm working from 2.4 being the worst and 2.55 being the best. I am hoping for the best but believe me, I could see it having Civil War type of legs.

I think it's going to have Civil War type legs based on the weekend. I mean I'm a big fan of the film but the signs are all there that this isn't going to be some leggy film or even a decently leggy film. It's internal multiplier for the weekend is really bad. I don't know why people are projecting a 20-25% drop for Sunday either when it's more likely to drop closer to 30%. It hasn't had a good drop all weekend. Why would Sunday suddenly be some special circumstance especially for an R-rated film? 

 

People will try to spin this into "your expectations were too high" or $125M OW is good for an R-rated film but I'm looking at it more so for the type of run that it's going to have and yea that preview to OW multiplier is bad. Plain and simple. 

[Nova]

In case people are interested in the demos for DP2. This info comes from Deadline 

 

Deadpool 2 received an A CinemaScore, just like the first one. Males numbered 59% to 41% females, with a predominant over 25 crowd at 71%. There was more of an under-25 presence for Deadpool at 45%, but what this means when you see a swing in demos is that the Deadpool audience just got older.

 

 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

I think it's going to have Civil War type legs based on the weekend. I mean I'm a big fan of the film but the signs are all there that this isn't going to be some leggy film or even a decently leggy film. It's internal multiplier for the weekend is really bad. I don't know why people are projecting a 20-25% drop for Sunday either when it's more likely to drop closer to 30%. It hasn't had a good drop all weekend. Why would Sunday suddenly be some special circumstance especially for an R-rated film? 

 

People will try to spin this into "your expectations were too high" or $125M OW is good for an R-rated film but I'm looking at it more so for the type of run that it's going to have and yea that preview to OW multiplier is bad. Plain and simple. 

125 would 6.7*previews. Did not expect the multiplier to be less than 7-7.5 which would have given 130-140 with 18.6

Some other sub-7x:

AOU did 6.9x.

AIW did 6.6x but with record numbers beating TFA and as a three-quel.

SS did 6.5x.

BVS did 6x (5.99x actually to go with 1.99x ow-dom multi )

[Nova]

Just now, A2k Raptor said:

125 would 6.7*previews. Did not expect the multiplier to be less than 7-7.5 which would have given 130-140 with 18.6

Some other sub-7x:

AOU did 6.9x.

AIW did 6.6x but with record numbers beating TFA and as a three-quel.

SS did 6.5x.

BVS did 6x (5.99x actually to go with 1.99x ow-dom multi )

AOU, BvS and SS are not films I would want to be in company with in terms of trying to get a decent run. 2.4x for DP2 is being generous imo Itll probably be closer to 2.2-2.25x I thought with $18.6M in previews the range would be $130-$140M as well but yea the film simply didn't hold up throughout the weekend. And I actually think your $125M for the weekend is on the optimistic  side as well. It'll most likely be around $122-$123M 

[titanic2187]

I think deadpool 2 will follow x-men franchise tradition by having bad legs....

[FantasticBeasts]

I guess what Deadpool lacks compared to Marvel flicks is the family appeal.

Deadpool is targetting young male adults mainly while a film like Infinity War has those on their radar but can also attract a bigger family and female crowd.

So yeah that doesn't bode well for the legs all in all. I think a realistic expectation should be sth like x2.4-2.6. Still should be seen as a success for Fox (especially If you think what people thought before the first one got released) but I won't lie; I expected more.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Hold up let's see how Deadpool 2 does this coming week before panicking just yet. Yes it was frontloaded this weekend but tbh we're in a little bit of uncharted territory with R Rated Blockbuster Sequels. Memorial Day Weekend is a toss up but hopefully good WoM will carry it through.

 

 

[Lordmandeep]

Think IW Will do 21 million 4-day next weekend. 

[a2k]

I think Solo 3-day next weekend is gonna come below DP2. 120 3-day / 135-140 4-day

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Solo next weekend better either smash the Memorial Day Weekend Record or fall short of At World's End's record. In between will just lead to even more bickering. 

 

Unrelated but I'm thinking of rewatching Dead Man's Chest and At World's End after exams. Felt like I didn't give those films a fair shot last time. 

Edited May 20, 2018 by Darth Lehnsherr

[Nova]

1 minute ago, A2k Raptor said:

I think Solo 3-day next weekend is gonna come below DP2. 120 3-day / 135-140 4-day

If the presales at my theater for it are an indication yes it will. 

[MCKillswitch123]

I don't know where Solo is gonna come in (120-130 3-day is my guess, 135-145 4-day), but I'm officially predicting that will it be the most entertaining weekend thread since Justice League.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I don't know where Solo is gonna come in (120-130 3-day is my guess, 135-145 4-day), but I'm officially predicting that will it be the most entertaining weekend thread since Justice League.

Well the difference with the JL thread was that the result was so bad that there was no defending it and everyone could joke about its failure. Have a feeling that Solo's Opening Weekend will be more like "hey that's a good result" "uh no it isn't" type discussions which are less fun. 

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Well the difference with the JL thread was that the result was so bad that there was no defending it and everyone could joke about its failure. Have a feeling that Solo's Opening Weekend will be more like "hey that's a good result" "uh no it isn't" type discussions which are less fun. 

 

So we need Solo to do about 100m 4day or 200m 4day to have fun thread. Seems fair.

[iHeartJames]

The Justice League weekend thread was just a hot ass mess number keep going down every update

[Nova]

Between the cluster fuck that the Solo thread is going to be next weekend and DP2's disappointing weekend I'll probably be checking out until I see a film that interests me enough to want to follow its box office run. 

[StevenG]

I bet that Book Club will have an unexpectedly solid hold next weekend. Isn't its intended audience exactly the demo that would stay home to watch the Royal Wedding? Everyone I know who cared about the nuptials happens to be older women.