DEADPOOL 2 WEEKEND THREAD | Spoilers = BANNED INTO OBLIVION | Dp2 125M and 300 WW debut...Asgard Sun update pg 123

[a2k]

@EmpireCity what do you think JW will open to?

[Zakiyyah6]

That's an underwhelming number. I expected at least 42.5mil. It might not even hit 125mil. I don't buy this 20% drop talk, I don't buy it at all. Of course I'll admit if I'm wrong but I'm expecting 25-30%.

[MCKillswitch123]

It would be sad if Deadpool 2 didn't come closer to DP1's opening than 125 or something like that, but that would still put it as the #2 R-rated OW ever, and on track for 280+ DOM on a 110M budget. And the #2 X-Men OW ever (#4 adjusted for inflation, The Last Stand and X2 both stand higher). Deadpool 3, depending on the Disney/Fox deal, is still in the table, and the character becomes the 1st superhero ever to have both its 1st solo movie and direct sequel to open over 100M+... not even Spidey did that. You could count Iron Man due to midnights, but that aside, Deadpool's the only one to get that feat done, unadjusted for inflation, that is.

 

If IW's hold is just O/U 50% against fucking DP2, it might just have strong enough of a hold next weekend (Solo will hit DP2 instead, if that) that it would put it on track to potentially beat The Dark Knight adjusted. I don't think 700M or Black Panther are achievable anymore, but IW is gonna come so much closer to those numbers than anyone, bar a MovieMan or other kind of hardcore Marvel loonie, ever gave serious thought to. 2B ain't a lock either due to the nasty OS-China drop (DP2 + Royal Wedding was probably a deadly combo), but it can still happen as China's hold seems healthy enough, from what I've read.

 

As for Book Club, I'm surprised it stayed completely flat from Friday, since even Going In Style increased 15%. A GIS Sun drop would give it a 3-day of 12.1M, while a Home Again-type hold would put it at 12M dead-on. That being said, it's going to be a super leggy movie, especially in the wake of Summer weekdays, so Paramount has themselves another win here. Good for them that they're finally not looking like morons anymore, they're finally joining Sony and Lionsgate in the "Not In Our Deathbed Anymore" Club.

 

Not surprising in the slightest that either Life Of The Party or Breaking In are within the 60% area. That was to be expected. Well, LOTP is looking a little better than Snatched, but that aside, not great and it could be better, even w/the Mother's Day bump in account. Melissa McCarthy should really stop making movies w/her husband.

[meriodejaneiro]

7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

It would be sad if Deadpool 2 didn't come closer to DP1's opening than 125 or something like that, but that would still put it as the #2 R-rated OW ever, and on track for 280+ DOM on a 110M budget. And the #2 X-Men OW ever (#4 adjusted for inflation, The Last Stand and X2 both stand higher). Deadpool 3, depending on the Disney/Fox deal, is still in the table, and the character becomes the 1st superhero ever to have both its 1st solo movie and direct sequel to open over 100M+... not even Spidey did that. You could count Iron Man due to midnights, but that aside, Deadpool's the only one to get that feat done, unadjusted for inflation, that is.

 

If IW's hold is just O/U 50% against fucking DP2, it might just have strong enough of a hold next weekend (Solo will hit DP2 instead, if that) that it would put it on track to potentially beat The Dark Knight adjusted. I don't think 700M or Black Panther are achievable anymore, but IW is gonna come so much closer to those numbers than anyone, bar a MovieMan or other kind of hardcore Marvel loonie, ever gave serious thought to. 2B ain't a lock either due to the nasty OS-China drop (DP2 + Royal Wedding was probably a deadly combo), but it can still happen as China's hold seems healthy enough, from what I've read.

Where have you seen that "nasty numbers drop"? Or it's just in your guesstimates?

[Avatree]

47 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

We’ve never really seen something like JW2 to make any real guess. The 208m opening of JW was fueled by nostalgia and great WOM by the GA. There was no real hook for a sequel, the nostalgia is gone, and the overall reception has fallen off quite a bit for that movie. It could hang on to a 170m-180m opening, but it could also fall off a cliff.

 

going off the overall domestic drop from Jurassic Park to Lost world and transferring that to OW, JW2 gets about 135m. A 70m drop off does seem high, so I’d peg it around 150-160m for now. 

Excuse me but what the hell are you on about... "Using the drop from JP2"

What drop? JP2 opened way higher than the original and broke the OW record... Which by the way had been set by the first JP.

 

JP2 adjusts to 150M opening which was HUGE 20 years ago. And a lot higher than JP1's adjusted 110M. 

[Lordmandeep]

Impressive for IW ...

 

Should do 29.5 million or 30 million this weekend 

 

Next weekend it be around 625 million by Sunday and it takes down TA and TLJ ...

Edited May 20, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[terrestrial]

Wedding numbers

 

Quote

UPDATE SATURDAY 7 PM: Almost 23 million viewers in the U.S. watched the coverage of the Royal Wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton from 6AM to 7:15AM ET on Friday across 11 networks. That outpaces the estimated 17 million who tuned in for Prince Charles and Diana’s wedding in 1981, which was carried by the Big 3 broadcast networks in the era before the proliferation of cable. According to Nielsen, the combined viewership for yesterday’s nuptials was 22.77 million on ABC, CBS, NBC, Telemundo, Univision, BBC America, CNN, E!, FOX News, MSNBC and TLC. In households, the William-Kate wedding drew 18.6 million vs. 14.2 million for Charles-Diana. As for Charles’ wedding to Camila Parker Bowles in 2005, it was watched by 3.65 million viewers.

Quote

Royal Wedding Ratings: 18M Watch Prince Harry & Meghan Markle’s Big Day In The UK

Quote

around 4m people watched the wedding in Australia.

 

US airing time = shouldn't have an impact, but there are still ppl watching at YT, so a way smaller % might have watched it during cinema typical times.

 

 

UK also had a cup

Quote

the FA Cup Final, widely considered the closest sporting event to the Superbowl in the UK, was watched by an average of 6.7m viewers and a peak of 8.7m people later in the afternoon.

http://deadline.com/2018/05/royal-wedding-ratings-18m-watch-prince-harry-meghan-markles-big-day-in-the-uk-1202394873/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

http://deadline.com/2011/04/so-how-were-the-royal-wedding-ratings-126926/

[Lordmandeep]

7 hours ago, Sam said:

@MovieMan89

@Lordmandeep

 

Why are y’all doing this? 

It sucks what the SW fanbase has fallen to due to one film 6 months ago lol 

[Zakiyyah6]

Yes because people who love the Royal Wedding were totally rushing out to see Deadpool. Give me a break. Also the Royal Wedding came on in the morning here in the states.

Edited May 20, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

It sucks what the SW fanbase has fallen to due to one film 6 months ago lol 

no, not due to one movie, due to the overly 'absolute' judging, too black and white reactions, the incapability to differentiate, the misuse of the www to be too drama (or even worse, the rape and death threats to ppl who dare to like something another one does not like), the misuse of specialised websites or social media for political or racist or anti-fem or... reasons

 

And due to the overly repeats of said anti.... Its a recognised form of torture, like the saying ~ translated : a lot of repeat drops of water can make a hole in a stone.

 

I am way more disgusted by such ppl than the worst movie making decision in a franchise movie (as far as I have encountered them till now).

Edited May 20, 2018 by terrestrial
a whole is not a hole = typo

[dxmatrixdt]

predictions based on the numbers

 

Deadpool - 34.7 (+18%) 41.00 -22% 32.00 - 126.30

 

Infinity War - 7.25 (79%) 13.00 -33% 8.75 - 29.00

 

Book Club - 4.10 (+15%) 4.70 -24% 3.37 - 13.00

 

Life of the Party - 2.20 (+50%) 3.30 -32% 2.25 - 7.75

 

Breaking In - 1.90 (+58%) 3.00 -30% - 2.10 - 7.00

 

Show Dogs - 1.40 (+93%) 2.70 -22% -2.10 - 6.20

 

Overboard - 1.15 (+74%) 2.00 (-7.5%) 1.85 - 5.00

A Quiet Place - 1.11 (+52%) 1.69 (-35%) 1.10 - 3.90

 

Rampage - 0.34 + 0.66 + 0.50 = 1.50

I Feel Pretty - 0.35 + 0.53 + 0.36 = 1.24

Super Troopers - 0.38 + 0.44 + 0.18 = 1.00

Black Panther - 0.22 + 0.41 + 0.27 = 0.90

Edited May 20, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Zakiyyah6]

Goodness is that Solo weekend thread going to be bad. So glad that I don't have a huge dog in that fight. Except maybe I'm disappointed with such a lazy idea being the second Star Wars spin-off. Thought they'd only make something like Solo after they ran out of ideas. 

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Yes because people who love the Royal Wedding were totally rushing out to see Deadpool. Give me a break. Also the Royal Wedding came on in the morning here in the states.

In case you mean me, I stated repeatedly that if it even has an impact it will have an impact for different movies, not only one. And if, then only for showings during daytime (like e.g. a matinee or early afternoon coffee time...), plus probably more (I think that I wrote in another thread) might more hurt holdovers than newer releases, and - again, if it has an impact, more female orientaed movies

 

or something like that

Quote

US airing time = shouldn't have an impact, but there are still ppl watching at YT, so a way smaller % might have watched it during cinema typical times.

 

Not every post of everyone is about the actual #1 (or #2,...)

[Krissykins]

13 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Yes because people who love the Royal Wedding were totally rushing out to see Deadpool. Give me a break. Also the Royal Wedding came on in the morning here in the states.

Yeh Rth confirmed it had zero impact on the Saturday numbers in Australia. 

 

Deadpool looks to be really suffering here in the UK though, down 50% from the first film. 

[MCKillswitch123]

29 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Where have you seen that "nasty numbers drop"? Or it's just in your guesstimates?

In the international numbers IW thread, that's what (it seemed to me) was being discussed. 60%+ or something in those lines. I could be wrong, though.

[baumer]

Looks like it will do about 125 million for the weekend which will be the second highest opening weekend ever for an R rated movie.  Pretty damn good.  I was hoping for 140, but I was going with myheart and not my brain.  

 

The wom seems really good so a multiplier of 2.4 gives it 300.  I think it will do a bit more.  And that makes it a smashing success.  The first made 770 WW, this looks like it should do around 700.  Terrific numbers.  

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh Rth confirmed it had zero impact on the Saturday numbers in Australia.

Wasn't that about the SMHs/DP only?

[Taruseth]

37 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Where have you seen that "nasty numbers drop"? Or it's just in your guesstimates?

IW OS thread, looks at a roughly 30M OS-China weekend down from 81M last weekend.

[terrestrial]

Ahhhh just looked into who plays in DP2, there are 2 Firefly actors in it

I might actually go and watch it

[Nova]

I'm just trying to understand how $125M OW off of a film that started with $18.6M in previews is "good" or how it's going to have any legs. A $125M OW on its own is not bad but when you put it in the context of where it started at, that number is very very disappointing.