HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Solo being a dud certainly didn't help it this weekend. And I'm not trying to be pessimistic. I'm just looking at its potential box office run and I don't see good things for it which is rather unfortunate because I agree it's a really good movie 

Solo being a dud helps both Deadpool and Infinity War, but not by much. I don't think your prediction is right for the same reason @aabattery pointed out to you, but those saying that DP2 won't struggle to cross $300m are cray. It will struggle. And it seems both Deadpool 2 and Solo aren't films that deserve the box office runs they are having, and I blame both Fox and Disney / Lucasfilm on that. Horn or Iger should have step in and demand Kennedy to move Solo to December after the Lord and Miller fiasco, and Deadpool 2 shouldn't try to play cute against freaking Infinity War. In normal circumstances, THE THREE films would be events all by themselves. As it is, they are obviously overshadowing and canibalizing each other while IW escapes mostly - but not totally - unscathed. 

[The Futurist]

14 minutes ago, Nova said:

I really don't know why people think I'm being unrealistic about my DP2 prediction. It's been having similar holds to Alien Covenant which only managed a 2.05x. Couple that with the fact that a Rated R flick should be going up from estimates early in the day and yet all last weekend and even today it decreases from its estimates 

 

The movie isnt holding well. Does that mean it's numbers are bad? No. But let's not overlook the type of holds the movie is having 

Some movies stabilize after a big OW and a harsh drop on the second week-end.

We ll know more about DP2's legs next week-end.

[Hunch]

Oh wow Deadline is reporting that the budget is over $300 million 

 

[oMeriMombatti]

3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Some movies stabilize after a big OW and a harsh drop on the second week-end.

We ll know more about DP2's legs next week-end.

Now I have seen it all. @The Futurist telling @Nova to not freak about Deadpool

[justvision]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

700 only ever mattered so much because of Black Panther. It feels very strange to have it under that considering IW absolutely feels like the bigger event to me. 

Overall AIW was a bigger event than BP, but BP was a much much bigger event than AIW for certain demography in US.

 

And BP had no major competition in like 5-6 weeks, whereas AIW had only 3 weeks. I believe AIW would have got a good shot at 700m if DP2 and Solo were released in late May/early June.

[oMeriMombatti]

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-weekend-box-office-1202397848/

 

While Disney’s Solo: A Star Wars Story is coming in $15.5M shy of its low-end $130M forecast with an estimated 4-day figure of $114.5M, the overall holiday stretch is booming with an estimated $226.5M, +25% over last year’s $181.4M, and the best Memorial Day weekend since 2014 when X-Men: Days of Future Past ruled with $110.5M. Solo‘s Friday, including $14.1M previews, is landing at $36.5M.

On the plus side, Solo‘s projections have improved since this morning, and audiences don’t entirely loathe it in a Batman v. Superman kind of way giving the Star Wars spinoff an 89% overall positive on ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak and an A- CinemaScore. That’s the first A- for a Disney Star Wars title (which until now have all earned As), but right in line with the grades of Episodes I-III. While moviegoers are slow to arrive to Solo, hopefully once they leave the auditorium they’ll preach the good word, and PostTrak shows a healthy 73% definite recommend.

ome commenters here are eager to declare Solo an all-out failure in the Justice League sense of the word, but it’s still too early. The film could see a spike in younger audiences today and tomorrow. However, at this minute it’s a blase start for a Disney Star Wars title considering the hope the studio had for a new franchise. Furthermore, with overseas collapsing, profit is doubtful on Solo especially when factoring in an estimated production cost well north of $300M before P&A. Unlike other event titles, recent Disney Star Wars movies aren’t driven by overseas ticket sales where foreign reps 60% or more of a title’s global B.O.

 

EDIT -

20th Century Fox’s Deadpool 2 is certainly chipping away at Solo with a $12.5M Friday, $40M-$45M 3-day and $52M-$57M 4-day. On the high end that’s at $221.7M.

Disney’s own Avengers: Infinity War is looking at a $19M-$21M four-day, while Paramount’s Book Club is projected with a $10M-$12M 4-day.

Edited May 26, 2018 by oMeriMombatti

[Mekanos]

If Christopher Robin breaks out though, maybe August wouldn't have been so hot for DP2 either.  

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Solo being a dud helps both Deadpool and Infinity War, but not by much. I don't think your prediction is right for the same reason @aabattery pointed out to you, but those saying that DP2 won't struggle to cross $300m are cray. It will struggle. And it seems both Deadpool 2 and Solo aren't films that deserve the box office runs they are having, and I blame both Fox and Disney / Lucasfilm on that. Horn or Iger should have step in and demand Kennedy to move Solo to December after the Lord and Miller fiasco, and Deadpool 2 shouldn't try to play cute against freaking Infinity War. In normal circumstances, THE THREE films would be events all by themselves. As it is, they are obviously overshadowing and canibalizing each other while IW escapes mostly - but not totally - unscathed. 

I don't think $260M is it's limit but I think it'll be closer to $260M than $300M. And yes Solo should have been released in December so then even if it had a weaker opening like it is now, it could have gotten the holiday legs. 

[Nova]

7 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Some movies stabilize after a big OW and a harsh drop on the second week-end.

We ll know more about DP2's legs next week-end.

When you're being rational after DP2 

[Nova]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Lets agree that we can all panic if the 3rd weekend drop is also bad. But Deadpool can easily revover from this weekends drop.

That's fair  

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

If Christopher Robin breaks out though, maybe August wouldn't have been so hot for DP2 either.  

They're not attracting the same crowd at all lol 

[Mekanos]

4 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-weekend-box-office-1202397848/

 

While Disney’s Solo: A Star Wars Story is coming in $15.5M shy of its low-end $130M forecast with an estimated 4-day figure of $114.5M, the overall holiday stretch is booming with an estimated $226.5M, +25% over last year’s $181.4M, and the best Memorial Day weekend since 2014 when X-Men: Days of Future Past ruled with $110.5M. Solo‘s Friday, including $14.1M previews, is landing at $36.5M.

On the plus side, Solo‘s projections have improved since this morning, and audiences don’t entirely loathe it in a Batman v. Superman kind of way giving the Star Wars spinoff an 89% overall positive on ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak and an A- CinemaScore. That’s the first A- for a Disney Star Wars title (which until now have all earned As), but right in line with the grades of Episodes I-III. While moviegoers are slow to arrive to Solo, hopefully once they leave the auditorium they’ll preach the good word, and PostTrak shows a healthy 73% definite recommend.

ome commenters here are eager to declare Solo an all-out failure in the Justice League sense of the word, but it’s still too early. The film could see a spike in younger audiences today and tomorrow. However, at this minute it’s a blase start for a Disney Star Wars title considering the hope the studio had for a new franchise. Furthermore, with overseas collapsing, profit is doubtful on Solo especially when factoring in an estimated production cost well north of $300M before P&A. Unlike other event titles, recent Disney Star Wars movies aren’t driven by overseas ticket sales where foreign reps 60% or more of a title’s global B.O.

But toy sales and home video guys...

[dxmatrixdt]

predictions   

Solo - 14 + 23 + 27 + 26 + 25 = 90/115 OW, 300 domestic, 525 worldwide.

 

Infinity War - 4 + 6 + 5.5 + 4.5 = 15.5/20 -- 625.20

Deadpool 2 - 12.5 + 18.0 + 17.0 + 12.5 = 47.5/60 -- 224.70.  -- 300 domestic.

Book Club - 3.00 + 3.75 + 3.25 + 2.50 = 10.0/12.50 -- 37.88

 

[Rebeccas]

Solo doing gangbusters probably would’ve helped with spillover to IW/DP. 

[Mekanos]

Just now, Nova said:

They're not attracting the same crowd at all lol 

I don't know if that's entirely true, they're clearly aiming Christopher Robin at adults who grew up on Winnie The Pooh as well as the little kids. I think if Christopher Robin does 300M or even close to it, overlap would be noticeable. But I'd guess it's still better than trying to squeeze into the May slot. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I just think that you should wait and see @Nova. I'm not saying that you won't be right because who knows? But it shouldn't be too difficult to just wait and see how the 3rd and 4th weekend play out. It could recover and it could not.

[Nova]

7 minutes ago, Hunch said:

Oh wow Deadline is reporting that the budget is over $300 million 

 

At this rate is Solo even going to make over $300M total 

[Nova]

Just now, Mekanos said:

I don't know if that's entirely true, they're clearly aiming Christopher Robin at adults who grew up on Winnie The Pooh as well as the little kids. I think if Christopher Robin does 300M or even close to it, overlap would be noticeable. But I'd guess it's still better than trying to squeeze into the May slot. 

I mean I definitely don't think it would be a clear path but they're still not targeting the same demo at all. Either way even if they were I think if they were the only two big films in August then they'd both do fine as opposed to the cluster fuck that is May 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I just think that you should wait and see @Nova. I'm not saying that you won't be right because who knows? But it shouldn't be too difficult to just wait and see how the 3rd and 4th weekend play out. It could recover and it could not.

Is the weekend after MDW a good one for hold overs though? I always thought that because it's a holiday weekend that the weekend after it we see big drops. That's why I don't think the movie is going to recover. It didn't have the hold it needed during this holiday weekend to mitigate the drop for next weekend. But we shall wait and see 

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

But toy sales and home video guys...

 

For what it's worth: 

 

I want a Deadpool action figure inspired by the film done by Figuarts if they ever release it and I'm getting blu-rays for both films (and I haven't even watched Solo yet, but I do think I'll enjoy it -- tomorrow, finally).

 

 

 

Insert :sadfleck: emoji here.