HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[oMeriMombatti]

Updated estimates have SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY rounding up $103M over the 4-day stretch--this would be on par with HANGOVER: PART II, although, adjusting for inflation...well, you know the drill.

— Exhibitor Relations (@ERCboxoffice) May 28, 2018

[REC]

28 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Perhaps but doubtful the idea wasn't discussed. They didn't just make it up on a fly. 

It was an unforced error regardless.  I personally don't care what Lando's sexuality is, but it made headlines on the evening news the GA eats up leading up to the release.  I dread thinking what middle America thinks about a headline like that, heading into a family holiday weekend considering their family movie options.  On the surface it sounds weird to most people, and not very family friendly.  That's the opposite of SW and Disney as safe, family marketed brands.

 

I dunno.  Kasdan Jr. needed a bit more media savvy in that moment.  There would've been better ways to answer that question, but maybe he wasn't thinking about any of that.

 

If I was in Disney's Marketing Group I'd probably be pulling my hair out over how stupid it was.

[dxmatrixdt]

from comparisons on how other opening tentpole films have done on this weekend of years past, Solo is likely being underestimated by $2-3 million.

Edited May 28, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Quigley]

Infinity War's Sunday is $6.63M. Monday will drop 20% (at most) to $5.3M. The long weekend total will be $22.7M and the cume-to-date will be $627.9M (at least).

 

Based on its $17.4M weekend, comparison with other Marvel movies's 3-day Memorial weekend gross suggest that it will have a multiplier around 2.2-2.6x. This means that it will make about $660-668M.

 

EDIT: Even a Black Panther-like hold (3.36x) would only take it $680M. $700M is dead.

Edited May 28, 2018 by Quigley

[baumer]

 

[nevermore]

5 minutes ago, McNerdy said:

It's too bad about Solo. Could it be that a huge reason for this is the competition? The target audience is the same as the ones for DP 2 and IW, and they opened just 1 and 4 weeks ago with good reviews. I'm pretty sure the majority of people don't go to the cinema 3 times a month. I also think the reason for DP2 relatively lower than expected numbers is IW. Also, I think that they didn't promote Solo as well as they could have. They started too late and the promotion was lackluster. Something like a Solo movie could have been promoted as an event movie IMO..

Competition probably didn't help it, but I think the core concept of the movie is not interesting. Also the embargo was lifted too early. The reviews don't say "oh yeah I should definitely go see that in theaters". They say "I can catch it on Netflix"

[Yandereprime101189]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

Uhmmm honey, December 2020 is Avatar's spot.

 

 

We're a 100 days into shooting with 930 so days to go, how can this miss 2020?

 

If he's not satisfied with how post production goes, how the visual effects aren't up to par, if he decides to go into a different direction, yadda, yadda,yadda.

 

I like Cameron and I enjoyed Avatar, but I've been hearing about a Avatar 2 since 2010. It's Nearly 10 years since the first film's release. Not to mention, he's also talking up like 5  sequels already

 

Plus Disney will likely own Fox by then and in turn own Avatar. . . .they could do whatever the hell they want with it, Cameron or not.

[REC]

9 minutes ago, McNerdy said:

It's too bad about Solo. Could it be that a huge reason for this is the competition? The target audience is the same as the ones for DP 2 and IW...

It wouldn't have to worry about the competition if the movie AND marketing were any good.

[MrGlass2]

30 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

They're trying to take away from AIW and give to Solo.

No it's going somewhere else...

 

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Quigley said:

Infinity War's Sunday is $6.63M. Monday will drop 20% (at most) to $5.3M. The long weekend total will be $22.7M and the cume-to-date will be $627.9M (at least).

 

Based on its $17.4M weekend, comparison with other Marvel movies's 3-day Memorial weekend gross suggest that it will have a multiplier around 2.2-2.6x. This means that it will make about $660-668M.

 

EDIT: Even a Black Panther-like hold (3.36x) would only take it $680M. $700M is dead.

I don't see how it makes just $660-668m.  There's no competition for 2 weeks and it's summer days.  GOTG2 did another $49m and it had a 52.9% drop with WW as competition the next week

 

Avengers made another $51m off it's 6th $11.2m w/e which is where AIW should be around next w/e with about a $642m cume. 

 

I don't think $700m is happening either with the early video release but if Disney had a Labor Day re-release and gave it double features with Incredibles 2 (instead of say Solo) $700m would still be in play.

[MrGamer]

 

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

 

If he's not satisfied with how post production goes, how the visual effects aren't up to par, if he decides to go into a different direction, yadda, yadda,yadda.

 

I like Cameron and I enjoyed Avatar, but I've been hearing about a Avatar 2 since 2010. It's Nearly 10 years since the first film's release. Not to mention, he's also talking up like 5  sequels already

 

Plus Disney will likely own Fox by then and in turn own Avatar. . . .they could do whatever the hell they want with it, Cameron or not.

All those other times you heard about Avatar 2 production wasn't in full swing..

 

There's still a small chance of a delay but I think the DEC 2020 date is final.

[Quigley]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I don't see how it makes just $660-668m.  There's no competition for 2 weeks and it's summer days.  GOTG2 did another $49m and it had a 52.9% drop with WW as competition the next week

 

Avengers made another $51m off it's 6th $11.2m w/e which is where AIW should be around next w/e with about a $642m cume. 

 

I don't think $700m is happening either with the early video release but if Disney had a Labor Day re-release and gave it double features with Incredibles 2 (instead of say Solo) $700m would still be in play.

With GotG2 mulitplier (2.66x), it will make 17.4 x 2.66 + 622.6 = $668.9M

[Cap]

32 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Not a good idea right now to piss off Feige to appease Kennedy. 

 

Seriously, they've been doing this every w/e since o/w.   It's weird.

LOL. Now I am imagining Disney trying to take money from AIW for AWIT or Solo every Sunday, and Kevin Feige (doing his best Cap impression) saying put it back. Hence the Actual bump. 😂😂😂

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Quigley said:

With GotG2 mulitplier (2.66x), it will make 17.4 x 2.66 + 622.6 = $668.9M

Multipliers often get higher near the end of the run, especially with summer weekdays good WOM.   It's going to be over $640m by the end of next w/e.  There's no competition that w/e or the w/e after. It's already taken it's big hits in terms of IMX, PLF as well as two 4,000+ theater movies opening back to back with largely the same demographic.

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

There's still a small chance of a delay but I think the DEC 2200 date is final.

 

 

Fixed it and i agree with you.

[ZeeSoh]

11 minutes ago, Quigley said:

With GotG2 mulitplier (2.66x), it will make 17.4 x 2.66 + 622.6 = $668.9M

As Talisman said above, a direct comparison between IW and other MCU movies cannot be made because IW released a week earlier so it is in its 5th weekend whereas the other MCU movies were in their 4th weekend. 

 

Legs off of a weekend geta better down the line so a multi off of the 5th weekend is better than the 4th. GotG2 for example had a 3.47x multi off its 5th weekend vs 2.66x from its 4th. Which weekend you then use to calculate IW’s run will give u wildly different numbers. 

 

As for 700, that was dead even before this weekend imo

Edited May 28, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Fixed it and i agree with you.

That's 50 years after Avatar is set, maybe we will have found a real Pandora by then?

[sfran43]

 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

That's 50 years after Avatar is set, maybe we will have found a real Pandora by then?

 

No, because the world will look like this and we're already extinct: