HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

If I'm Lionsgate, I'm moving John Wick 3 out of that May 17th slot and moving it fast 

Next summer is ridiculous. Nothing gets any room to breathe. The week after TA4 is Detective Pikachu. Then the week after that is John Wick 3. Then the week after that is Aladdin and Minecraft. Then the week after that is Godzilla. Then the week after that is Pets 2 and Charlie's Angels. Then the week after that is Men in Black. Then the week after that is TS4. Then the week after that is Cowboy Ninja Viking. Then the week after that is Homecoming 2 and Annabelle 3. Then the week after that is Top Gun 2. Then the week after that is The Lion King. Then the week after that is Hobbs and Shaw and New Mutants.

 

Best of luck to all. 

[aabattery]

John Wick 3 is fine where it is. Sure, releasing big ol' blockbusters one after the other is gonna go badly but that doesn't mean you should NEVER RELEASE ANYTHING IN MAY EVER. It's an R-rated action flick, it ain't gonna be cannibalized by Aladdin or anything.

[kowhite]

2 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

This late April release for AIW is even better than December IMO. It had whole 3 weeks to itself competition less. This specifically helped it OS. It may have done a bit more domestically if released in Dec, but no way it does more OS. AIW opened to earth shatterring numbers OS and then sustained very well because of no competition. This won't happen in December. That's why next year also I hope A4 releases late April.

 

I’m not sure the April release really helped Infinty War.

 

Of you said it helped DP2 and (ah hem) Solo...maybe.

 

Infinity War though?  I kinda feel that was a time agnostic vacuum cleaner.

[Legion Again]

32 minutes ago, Rthanos said:

Mon looking Solo 18.8, DP2 10.8, AIW 5.5

Aside from the obvious, this weekend was awful for DP2, whereas IW had a great Sat, Sun, Mon.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

John Wick 3 is fine where it is. Sure, releasing big ol' blockbusters one after the other is gonna go badly but that doesn't mean you should NEVER RELEASE ANYTHING IN MAY EVER. It's an R-rated action flick, it ain't gonna be cannibalized by Aladdin or anything.

Yeah, its audience is rather limited. It'll do the same business no matter where it opens.

[Nova]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Next summer is ridiculous. Nothing gets any room to breathe. The week after TA4 is Detective Pikachu. Then the week after that is John Wick 3. Then the week after that is Aladdin and Minecraft. Then the week after that is Godzilla. Then the week after that is Pets 2 and Charlie's Angels. Then the week after that is Men in Black. Then the week after that is TS4. Then the week after that is Cowboy Ninja Viking. Then the week after that is Homecoming 2 and Annabelle 3. Then the week after that is Top Gun 2. Then the week after that is The Lion King. Then the week after that is Hobbs and Shaw and New Mutants.

 

Best of luck to all. 

Detective Pikachu will bomb if it's planning to be released the week after TA4. John Wick 3 will be DP2 all over again. It'll be successful especially for its budget but will bleed money. Aladdin and Minecraft will both flop. Mind you I feel like these films would have done decently but when you factor in TA4 and you see what damage the first one did to films in its path, yea if you're a family film or a film that targets the same audience then you're SOL. 

 

But yea next summer will be interesting. I feel like films won't even get the opportunity to develop any legs because their screens are just going to be snatched away from them. 

[Fake]

12 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

$300M is pretty much done for DP2. Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2 aren't going to allow for late legs to develop in June; I'm thinking $275-280M finish. Still great, but to beat a dead horse, it should not have released in May.

Well... I wouldn't go that low either.

 

DP2 should be at 231M after Thursday. Assuming it drops 50% next weekend (should be manageable given it is an open week), it should do 22M weekend, and consequently 33M for the week.

 

Another 50% drop can be assumed for the next week (against Ocean's 8). So another 16-17M.

 

Thus DP2 should be at 280M when Incredibles opens.

 

If DP2 misses 300M, it won't be by more than 10M.

 

300M chances aren't fully gone yet. But it needs to have a sub-50% drop next weekend.

[kowhite]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

John Wick 3 has the same release date as what Deadpool 2 had but instead it gets Infinity War Part 2 a whole week closer to it. 

 

I know John Wick 3 doesn't need to make a lot of money. Neither did Deadpool 2 but if I'm Lionsgate and I'm seeing what happened to a fellow rated R film that also relies on a niche audience in that slot, I consider moving it. 

 

Well, fair enough...all things considered, if I was in charge I certainly wouldn’t put JW3 next to Deadpool 3.  

 

Also, I’d have way more money.  So, put me in charge please.

[aabattery]

Just now, Nova said:

Detective Pikachu will bomb if it's planning to be released the week after TA4. John Wick 3 will be DP2 all over again. It'll be successful especially for its budget but will bleed money. Aladdin and Minecraft will both flop. Mind you I feel like these films would have done decently but when you factor in TA4 and you see what damage the first one did to films in its path, yea if you're a family film or a film that targets the same audience then you're SOL. 

 

But yea next summer will be interesting. I feel like films won't even get the opportunity to develop any legs because their screens are just going to be snatched away from them. 

 

I don't really get the comp between John Wick and Deadpool. Deadpool made 360m, John Wick 2 made 90m. They're not really batting in the same league.

[Nova]

It's as if Infinity War part 2 doesn't open two weeks before John Wick 3   Nobody is concerned about Aladdin messing with John Wick 3. 

[water]

aladdin will not flop lmao. we could be seeing a very close repeat of black panther and infinity war with aladdin and the lion king

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

I don't really get the comp between John Wick and Deadpool. Deadpool made 360m, John Wick 2 made 90m. They're not really batting in the same league.

But that's the point. If Deadpool 2 which is coming off of a $360M sum in the original couldnt do much against IW what makes you think John Wick 3 which is coming off of an even smaller audience will be able to do much of anything against the supposed finale? 

 

If this were a normal May, I wouldn't be saying anything about John Wick 3. But I'm taking into consideration the Juggernaut that is Infinity War part 2 opening just two weeks before it. You can't tell me that some of IW audience doesn't cross with John Wick's? In the same way that IW crosses with DP2. 

Edited May 29, 2018 by Nova

[aabattery]

Just now, Nova said:

But that's the point. If Deadpool 2 which is coming off of a $360M sum in the original couldnt do much against IW what makes you think John Wick 3 which is coming off of an even smaller audience will be able to do much of anything against the supposed finale? 

 

If this were a normal May, I wouldn't be saying anything about John Wick 3. But I'm taking into consideration the Juggernaut that is Infinity War part 2 opening just two weeks before it. You can't tell me that some of IW audience doesn't cross with John Wick's? In the same way that IW crosses with DP2. 

 

It's not a DP2/IW situation. John Wick 3 isn't a superhero movie and it's gonna open like 65m lower than DP2 (and that's being bloody optimistic on John Wick 3's end). The audience crossover or superhero fatigue or whatever isn't gonna be the same as it was between IW and DP2. It'll be closer to Fury Road vs Age of Ultron.

 

Plus I'm convinced that IW:P2 is gonna move to April

[Sam]

11 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

This late April release for AIW is even better than December IMO. It had whole 3 weeks to itself competition less. This specifically helped it OS. It may have done a bit more domestically if released in Dec, but no way it does more OS. AIW opened to earth shatterring numbers OS and then sustained very well because of no competition. This won't happen in December. That's why next year also I hope A4 releases late April.

The late April release dates is such a proven and ludicrous release pattern for Marvel in the OS markets, there’s absolutely no point or reasons for trying out unproven dates. Least of all December where there are more competitions and things are less predictable.

 

Of the 6 billion dollars MCU movies, 5 were released in late April OS. Why mess with what works lol.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, water said:

aladdin will not flop lmao. we could be seeing a very close repeat of black panther and infinity war with aladdin and the lion king

Lol, what? The TLK 700 predictions are ridiculous enough, I can't handle those for Aladdin too now. Aladdin may not be hitting 300 if the WOM is bad. So much competition for it, it will bleed screens like no one's business. 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

It's not a DP2/IW situation. John Wick 3 isn't a superhero movie and it's gonna open like 65m lower than DP2 (and that's being bloody optimistic on John Wick 3's end). The audience crossover or superhero fatigue or whatever isn't gonna be the same as it was between IW and DP2. It'll be closer to Fury Road vs Age of Ultron.

I disagree. Especially since I don't see IW part 2 being anywhere close to Age of Ultron in terms of box office. 

[titanic2187]

21 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

$300M is pretty much done for DP2. Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2 aren't going to allow for late legs to develop in June; I'm thinking $275-280M finish. Still great, but to beat a dead horse, it should not have released in May.

to me, IW , DP2 and solo are a perfect pair of showing cannibalisation, I am sure their target audience are largely the same group, male over 25, they just have 3 mega-blockbuster which trying to please every single man to watch it in large scale.....the cannibalisation won't be this bad if IW isn't a 600m+ grosser, and regardless of how SOLOW, it's still a 100m openers. There are just not enough space to catch male attention.

 

Don't be surprised if Ocean 8 was a breakout, female demo has been largely undeserved for a long time  

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah 90% sure they'll move Avengers 4 up a week and again won't reveal it until early next year just to keep other studios on their toes. 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

to me, IW , DP2 and solo are a perfect pair of showing cannibalisation, I am sure their target audience are largely the same group, male over 25, they just have 3 mega-blockbuster which trying to please every single man to watch it in large scale.....the cannibalisation won't be this bad if IW isn't a 600m+ grosser, and regardless of how SOLOW, it's still a 100m openers. There are just not enough space to catch male attention.

 

Don't be surprised if Ocean 8 was a breakout, female demo has been largely undeserved for a long time  

Ocean's 8 is breaking out 100%. I know it's tracking $30-$45M or something but if it's well

recieved, I could see it hitting the higher end of it's tracking if not more and getting to $50M 

[water]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, what? The TLK 700 predictions are ridiculous enough, I can't handle those for Aladdin too now. Aladdin may not be hitting 300 if the WOM is bad. So much competition for it, it will bleed screens like no one's business. 

why would it have bad wom? disney's live action remakes have as much of a successful formula as the mcu at this point