BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[That One Girl]

12 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

As a straight white male I apologize that I can't appreciate Pierce Brosnan's "singing"

 

pierce brosnan’s singing is peak film.

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Jurassic World:

Remainder of this week: 58.2M (208.2M Total)

Jun 29: 62M (38.5M weekdays, 308.7M Total)

Jul 6: 34.4M (20.2M weekdays, 363.3M Total)

Jul 13: 22.1M (13.1M weekdays, 398.5M Total)

Jul 20: 13.6M (7.9M weekdays, 420M Total)

Jul 27: 7M (3.6M weekdays, 430.6M Total)

Aug 3: 3.2M (1.6M weekdays, 435.4M Total)

Aug 10: 1.5M (600k weekdays, 437.5M Total)

Aug 17: 700k (300k weekdays, 438.5M Total)

Aug 24: 500k (200k weekdays, 439.2M Total)

Aug 31: 1.3M (800k weekdays, 441.3M Total)

Sep 7: 500k (100k weekdays, 441.9M Total)

Final Total: 444M (2.96x)

 

This may or may not keep the franchise's streak of never having a sub-3x. Depends how well it holds in July and how big the Labor Day boost is.

 

 

This will be lucky to crack the 400M.

[Water Bottle]

Just now, CJohn said:

This will be lucky to crack the 400M.

 

Considering how many people thought it would open to less than $100 million....

[Brainbug]

Just now, CJohn said:

This will be lucky to crack the 400M before the 4th weekend.

 

Fixed it.

[Biggestgeekever]

9 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

pierce brosnan’s singing is peak film.

In the fantasy land where Tommy Wiseau got an oscar, maybe.

8 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Considering how many people thought it would open to less than $100 million....

I'm not seeing 400 either. The first one ended with a dinosaur wrestling match that brought the house down, Fallen Kingdom's ending can be generously described as "somber"

[Pure Spirit]

33 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I will admit though that Black Panthers gross starts to annoy me greatly. For gods sake, i want to see that 700M number.

If aWiT could fudge to $100M, Black Panther can make the gap with some antman double features.

[a2k]

This dino movie pulled off nearly 10x it's prod budget globally. Has to be the 2nd most successful dino movie after JP1.

[baumer]

I'm in the camp that says 400 is not going to be easy.  That's almost a 2.7X and that seems kind of optimistic.

[Brainbug]

Just now, baumer said:

I'm in the camp that says 400 is not going to be easy.  That's almost a 2.7X and that seems kind of optimistic.

 

I will admit that FK definetly isnt the same crowdpleaser as JW. But theres still enough mayhem and fun stuff in it that i dont think it will have bad legs.

[baumer]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

I will admit that FK definetly isnt the same crowdpleaser as JW. But theres still enough mayhem and fun stuff in it that i dont think it will have bad legs.

 

I'm not even really sure if it'll be a case of bad legs, but sequels normally do not have 3multipliers.  Look at Infinity War.  That is going to finish with about a 2.65X and that film is pretty much liked by most.

 

Hopefully a good comparison is The Dark Knight Rises.  It finished with a 2.8X.  So I'm on the fence right now.  I think it will be close.  

[The Panda]

3 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

This is a silly argument. Of course I2 will get a over a 3.0 multi. One heavy drop is not going to stop that from happening.

Considering its massive OW, with large previews and 150m in competition, the drop isn’t that bad.

 

If it still has a high 40% drop next weekend there might be a problem, but I’m expecting sub-40%.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

I'm not even really sure if it'll be a case of bad legs, but sequels normally do not have 3multipliers.  Look at Infinity War.  That is going to finish with about a 2.65X and that film is pretty much liked by most.

 

Hopefully a good comparison is The Dark Knight Rises.  It finished with a 2.8X.  So I'm on the fence right now.  I think it will be close.  

 

One useful thing is that FK wasnt previews-frontloaded at all so the 2nd weekend drop will tell us a lot i think. With SH films or now with something like Incredibles 2, the 3rd weekend numbers are often much more telling where things are headed.

[WrathOfHan]

Idk. I have it dropping almost 60% next weekend, but the July 4 weekdays and Skyscraper double features will help boost it a bit. 

[Wrath]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Skull Island is a more consistent movie

Godzilla is a more interesting movie

 

Both are 7s.

I wouldn’t say that Skull Island was anything past “good” but it was totally fun, well put together, and much better than I (and I think, many) expected. And its BO reflected that. Kind of like Solo, minus the Last Jedi baggage.

[aabattery]

Good OW. Hell of a lot better for my Summer Game so all is well. 

[a2k]

I doubt JW2 can hold better than I2. 56% drop gives JW2 66 2nd weekend. That's the max imo. Hoping for >62.25 (-58%).

[Blankments]

Tag has a major joke in it that completely didn't sit well with me. Easily the weakest of this year's three big studio comedies

[Johnny Tran]

A $150M opening for a sequel that by most accounts is "ok" is an exceptional number especially considering Incredibles 2 is in many ways is direct competition and also did $80M in its second weekend. How many times in history have two movies been over $80M in the same weekend?  

 

Anyone thinking this is an "L" for JW2 is delusional.  

[TalismanRing]

53 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Considering how many people thought it would open to less than $100 million....

One or maybe two is many? 

[filmscholar]

Well The Jurassic Universe can't break the OW Record all the time, lol.   3 out of 5 with back to back over 150 + OW, not bad at all.  I think that's a good opening considering "Incredibles 2" is coming off that incredible weekend.  Family audiences had two great choices this weekend and the numbers kind of showed that.   I contributed to that Sunday number, I liked it too because it took some unique story risk  I was surprised by.   So this is looking like a "Lost World" type of drop but globally might make up some of the slack.  Plus it's got 4th of July coming up too.  Over 700 WW already?  Wow.  The question is can it get past 3x and get well over 400 Million Domestic.  WW looks to be doing great.   I think that was a good hold for I2 after that record breaking weekend.   Again it's a family film and so was "Jurassic" so again good hold.  Domestically...."Oceans 8" crosses 100, "Solo" crosses 200 and "Deadpool 2" crosses "300" (and over 700 WW).   This summer really tested the box office as far as big tentpoles opening next to each other.   IW ended up having some pretty good late holds over the last few weeks, we'll see how the late legs hold up but BP looks to be officially safe domestically, speaking of BP, it's crawling but 250k to go to 700 Million, don't know when it can top it but it's getting there week by week in this late run.   I.W. is still marching towards "Awakens" globally.  It's about 40 Million Away.