BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[CJohn]

32 minutes ago, baumer said:

Yes I was disappointed in him last night. 

I am glad I went to bed. I might do the same tonight.

[Brainbug]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

You're way ahead of yourself if you think 150m is locked with that OD. Not even with JW's holds does it get there. And you said it would blow past 130-150m tracking and said sub 400 wasn't happening. Movie is gonna need really nice legs to avoid that, and I just don't see it. 

 

Well yes, 150M is not "locked", though i dislike that term anyway. But im fully confident in a massive Sat number, hopefully RTH graces us with it early. And sub 400M is ofc also possible but i do think JWFK's legs will be way better than some here like to think.

 

Also, pls show me the post where i said that it will "blow past" the tracking, since i dont think it exists my predictions for the OW were always in the 150M area as far as i remember, earlier this year in the 160s, before tracking came out.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Well yes, 150M is not "locked", though i dislike that term anyway. But im fully confident in a massive Sat number, hopefully RTH graces us with it early. And sub 400M is ofc also possible but i do think JWFK's legs will be way better than some here like to think.

 

Also, pls show me the post where i said that it will "blow past" the tracking, since i dont think it exists my predictions for the OW were always in the 150M area as far as i remember, earlier this year in the 160s, before tracking came out.

Oh c'mon man, you know you called me out several times over the last few months for saying FK was headed to something like 140/380 DOM. I have no idea what threads they're in, because we had the debate multiple times across multiple threads, but I do know you always said I was way underestimating it and it had no chance of going that low. And I know I wasn't on the 100 train until literally this past Wednesday. 

[That One Girl]

Saw Hotel Artemis, it's fun, I enjoyed myself

[Brainbug]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Oh c'mon man, you know you called me out several times over the last few months for saying FK was headed to something like 140/380 DOM. I have no idea what threads they're in, because we had the debate multiple times across multiple threads, but I do know you always said I was way underestimating it and it had no chance of going that low. And I know I wasn't on the 100 train until literally this past Wednesday. 

 

This debate now leads to nothing since your making it seem like i said 140M would be like a bad opening and i definetly didnt say that. I only called the people out that were predicting sub 140M, because that was just so obviously not gonna happen. And i only focused on you lately since you were a very prominent voice on this hilarious sub 120- sub 100M train the last week.

 

All of this is good fun. You were right with BP/IW. I was wrong with TLJ. Now im right about JW2 and you are wrong Accept it and move on.

[Wrath]

1 hour ago, Chewy said:

 

This is the best argument for it breaking out btw

I know folks have posted research claiming a hit song doesn’t help BO that much, but I have serious trouble believing it. IMO, Ballroom Blitz + an already really good trailer was worth 1/4 to 1/3 of Suicide Squad’s DOM total.

[MovieMan89]

@Brainbug

 

Not in response to me, but here's you in the FK thread a couple weeks ago

 

The funny thing is, most people predicted something like 250-350M DOM for the first JW before it came out.

 

I mean, i created this (little bit) lunatic 500M DOM club for both this and Incredibles, so i gotta stick to it, even having seen the movie and thinking that it wont be getting the insanely good WOM of JW. But before we atleast have the Preview numbers, i will still believe it!

 

Now, to be fair it does seem to me that your expectations did cool a bit after you saw the film. But before then you were full steam 500-600m ahead, and even since you've still admitted to believing it can happen. My predictions for it would have been dead on if I hadn't gotten carried away this past week. But even if you want to ignore all of that and just say my most recent is all that should count, your predictions for it were still just as off as mine. Sorry bud, you're no less wrong than me on this one.

 

EDIT: Found your over 500m club for FK, and it does look like you were only predicting a 150m OW for it. No idea how you thought it could get to 500 from that, but I guess  that's where my confusion about you having a way higher OW predict must stem from. So yeah, sorry, you're going to be pretty right on the OW. 

Edited June 23, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

@Brainbug

 

Not in response to me, but here's you in the FK thread a couple weeks ago

 

The funny thing is, most people predicted something like 250-350M DOM for the first JW before it came out.

 

I mean, i created this (little bit) lunatic 500M DOM club for both this and Incredibles, so i gotta stick to it, even having seen the movie and thinking that it wont be getting the insanely good WOM of JW. But before we atleast have the Preview numbers, i will still believe it!

 

Now, to be fair it does seem to me that your expectations did cool a bit after you saw the film. But before then you were full steam 500-600m ahead, and even since you've still admitted to believing it can happen. My predictions for it would have been dead on if I hadn't gotten carried away this past week. But even if you want to ignore all of that and just say my most recent is all that should count, your predictions for it were still just as off as mine. Sorry bud, you're no less wrong than me on this one.

 

 

*Sigh*

 

Read all that again. Ofc i said im sticking to 500M, since that is a lunatic club i created. It was wishful thinking of me. And before a movie comes out, anything can happen. This 600M nonsense there is plain wrong, ive never said it would go anywhere near 600M.

 

This is an earlier post in this thread of me:

 

12 hours ago, Brainbug said:

The rise wont stop there! 150M+ weekend looking really good at the moment @MovieMan89

 

Though my 500M club for I2 and JW is in massive jeopardy now. I2 is locked to do it, but Fallen Kingdom would need something like a 150M OW and then a 3,32 multi, and i dont think its legs will be as good as JW's. So it needs something like a 160M OW and 3,13 legs or ofc an even slightly bigger OW than that for 500M. Thats all in theory, ofc, the much more likely outcome for the DOM total is now 400M+.

 

 

Dont mix lunatic club goals with actual predictions!

 

And your last sentence in your post:

 

Sorry bud, you're no less wrong than me on this one.

 

is extremely brave for someone who thought this would go under 100M OW.

 

And thats all i have to say. I dont want to derail this thread anymore. I was right and you were wrong, but it seems youre way too stubborn to accept it.

 

 

[Thrylos 7]

One look at the JW2 o/u IW thread which is on the second page of the forum is more than enough to see what everyone was predicting, it’s hilarious that some people are acting as if their previous posts have disappeared.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

*Sigh*

 

Read all that again. Ofc i said im sticking to 500M, since that is a lunatic club i created. It was wishful thinking of me. And before a movie comes out, anything can happen. This 600M nonsense there is plain wrong, ive never said it would go anywhere near 600M.

 

This is an earlier post in this thread of me:

 

 

 

Dont mix lunatic club goals with actual predictions!

 

And your last sentence in your post:

 

Sorry bud, you're no less wrong than me on this one.

 

is extremely brave for someone who thought this would go under 100M OW.

 

And thats all i have to say. I dont want to derail this thread anymore. I was right and you were wrong, but it seems youre way too stubborn to accept it.

 

 

Read my edit to my post. Yes, seems you were more right about the OW than I realized, but I have no idea how you thought it was going 500+ from that. Fact is, my 380-400 prediction I kept for months until like a week ago will likely be dead on. So you can see how I have trouble trying to praise you for being so right when you were touting 500+. 

[That One Girl]

shut up.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

shut up.

Summer game OW predictions for FK.

 

Tree: 202M

Premium George: 197M

baumer: 195M

JJ-8: 191.3M

AndyLL: 190M

That One Guy: 190M

24Lost: 189M

glassfairy: 189M

Empire: 188M

druv10: 185M

Fancyarcher: 185M

The Panda: 185M

Deja23: 180M

Infernus: 180M

captainwondyful: 179M

Sheikh: 177.5M

bcf26: 175M

SchumacherFTW: 175M

Simionski: 175M

Telemachos: 175M

grey ghost: 170M

Kalo: 170M

aabattery: 169M

Chewy: 165M

Wrath: 165M

ZeeSoh: 165M

The Dark Alfred: 157M

Mike Hunt: 155M

MrPink: 155M

kayumanggi: 150M

Spaghetti: 150M

Cmasterclay: 145M

Slambros: 145M

WrathOfHan: 145M

Chasmmi: 144M

MovieMan89: 144M

Jake Gittes: 124M

[Bishop54]

1 hour ago, Quake said:

Excuse me for asking who is Rthanos?

Sinner!

[That One Girl]

okay.

[MovieMan89]

@Brainbug

 

Once and for all, I was wrong to get carried away this past week and say FK could go sub 100 on OW. This should be a lesson to stick to my long standing predictions and not diverge so sharply at the last moment. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I think it could still hit 400mil, provided it does hit 145mil opening weekend. Yes, a 2.76 multi wouldn't be easy but the fact that the film isn't apart of the front loaded comic book genre means that there is a better chance of such an event happening. 

[Biggestgeekever]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Summer game OW predictions for FK.

 

Tree: 202M

[baumer]

1 hour ago, Quake said:

Excuse me for asking who is Rthanos?

 

He has access to raw numbers for every film. He usually drops by on weekends to give us updates. 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I think it could still hit 400mil, provided it does hit 145mil opening weekend. Yes, a 2.76 multi wouldn't be easy but the fact that the film isn't apart of the front loaded comic book genre means that there is a better chance of such an event happening. 

 

Also, after Ant-Man 2, there arent that many big movies coming till Mission Impossible on July 27. And the fact that JW as a dinosaur/monster/disaster film is just so much different from the more generic (Superhero) blockbusters could help its legs i think.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I2 has been consistently selling out at my theatre all afternoon. I don’t see how it gets under 30m today.