jack-jack INCREDIBLES 2 Weekend |🏆| ACTUALS: 182.7M OW | O8 19M, Tag 14.9M, Solo 10M, DP2 8.7M, IW 5.4M

[Brainbug]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Haha, obviously that's fair since I've argued against a big OW for FK for months. Really have nothing against it, the franchise has been far too bland ever since the first for me to be passionate about one way or the other. I just think those pre-sales are legit bad for a direct sequel to a 650+ grosser. So we'll see if pre-sales really don't mean much in this franchise. 

 

Whether or not they mean much or nothing, they will definetly help predicting JW3 in 2021.

[The Futurist]

6 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Fallen Kingdom having a historic dropoff just seems so random to me. Marketing wasn't good but the first was well-liked. There's no real reason for it to fall THAT hard

The same reason Jurassic World did that good but reversed :

Non Fanboy driven franchises can be very unpredictable and unstable.

Edited June 15, 2018 by The Futurist

[Chewy]

Just now, The Futurist said:

The same reason Jurassic World did that good but reversed.

Non Fanboy driven franchises can be very unpredictable and unstable.

 

I know it's dropping but UNDER 100, as was suggested, is more than unpredictability. A disaster after JW

[stephanos13]

I think he is jumping the gun a little bit.

 

WHOA!!! Bigtime CORRECTION!! Looks like #Incredibles2 will make well over $170m domestic this weekend!! BIGGEST ANIMATED OPENING EVER, BY FAR, beating Finding Dory ($135m)! https://t.co/98CFKNLZZI

— Scott Mantz (@MovieMantz) June 15, 2018

 

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, Chaz said:

2018 - Pixar

2017 - Illumination

2016 - Pixar

2015 - Pixar 

2014 - Dreamworks

2013 - Illumination

2012 - Pixar

2011 - Pixar

2010 - Pixar 

2009 - Pixar 

 

Pixar has won the summer animated crown for seven of the last ten summers.

 

BREAKING NEWS: Disney buys Illumination and Dreamworks 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Chewy said:

 

I know it's dropping but UNDER 100, as was suggested, is more than unpredictability. A disaster after JW

 

I agree. If that would happen, atleast DOM Fallen Kingdom would be a similar disaster to Solo. Its just completely unprecedented for a direkt sequel to a 200M+ opener to loose over half the audience on OW. Especially since JW had fantastic reception among the GA.

 

And i just dont see that happen.

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

I think he is jumping the gun a little bit.

 

 

 

200M IS HAPPENING!!

[CJohn]

6 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

I know it's dropping but UNDER 100, as was suggested, is more than unpredictability. A disaster after JW

All the ingredients are there for the tanking. It opens right after a mega opener (Incredibles 2), the marketing was absolutely awful with no hook, the reviews are mixed/bad... The perfect storm for the (nearly) perfect implosion (Han Solo will hold the perfect implosion title forever).

[Water Bottle]

Saw The Incredibles 2. The short before it was better. 

 

Should have solid legs.

[filmlover]

Worst case scenario for Jurassic World next weekend is $120M. All this sub-$100M talk sounds like pure wishful thinking.

[pepsa]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

228 was a pretty medium prediction.

I thought that medium predictions 1 week before release were around 240m.

[B J]

based on what I am seeing here it's heading for 75m+ today for sure.

[Daxtreme]

So basically tracking is always off-mark this year, what's with the tracking for Black Panther, AIW, Solo, and now this being hilariously off.

 

I expect ant-man and the wasp to further prove that.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Worst case scenario for Jurassic World next weekend is $120M. All this sub-$100M talk sounds like pure wishful thinking.

Wishful thinking? Lol, maybe for Tele, but he’s not even here. It’s really not that unrealistic if you go by pre-sales. I mean half of Solo through the same point? Yeah that was SW, but still, half? That missed 100 by quite a bit too. I really thought that movie would have taught everyone a lesson that something doesn’t have to open huge because of its franchise. Trust the data more. 

 

Fk is relying on walk up on par with the first at this point to score a massive opening. Just don’t see why that’s likely. 

[grey ghost]

19 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Fallen Kingdom having a historic dropoff just seems so random to me. Marketing wasn't good but the first was well-liked. There's no real reason for it to fall THAT hard

JW was an event no doubt but most of the success was due to ungodly buzz.

 

The standard drop to a sequel to a 600 m DOM  mega hit is around 25%.

 

But you take away the buzz that was viral with casuals and FK could drop much further.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Fallen Kingdom I still think gets above $400M but I suspect its gross will make us look back even more favourably at Ultron's Domestic Gross.

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

All the ingredients are there for the tanking. It opens right after a mega opener (Incredibles 2), the marketing was absolutely awful with no hook, the reviews are mixed/bad... The perfect storm for the (nearly) perfect implosion (Han Solo will hold the perfect implosion title forever).

JL says hello.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

That number for Incredibles 2.......

 

The Incredibles will always remain my favourite Pixar film but that was because it was one of if not the first film I saw in Cinemas so yeah it was my "I grew up with this" film. Ratatoullie might be my 2nd or 3rd favourite though. 

[Ledmonkey96]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

JL says hello.

JL had the most wasted potential, Solo had 3 billion dollar movies preceding it in its universe.

[grey ghost]

What is crazier right now?

 

Underpredicting the Jurassic World franchise or underpredicting MCU (Ant-Man 2)?

 

BP was supposed to open to 135 m.

 

IW to 235 m.

 

I2 to 140 m.

 

Ant-Man 2 won't come close to 100 m?

 

What's the definition of insanity again?

 

 

Edited June 15, 2018 by grey ghost