Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Starring 2023 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nominee Angela Bassett. She did not do the thing!

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I still have to think no Chadwick will have some impact on this film's box office.

 

It'll definitely have some impact. We just have no way of knowing what it'll be. Even after the film comes out, we won't have a way of knowing. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

8 hours ago, dudalb said:

I still have to think no Chadwick will have some impact on this film's box office.

If it’s going to have an effect, it’s going to be a Paul Walker effect. 

[jedijake]

3 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

If it’s going to have an effect, it’s going to be a Paul Walker effect. 

Do you mean the effect of his last movie (Fast and Furious 7) or the first movie without him (Fate of Furious 8)?

[Torontofan]

Trailer was pretty good so I think  it will still do around 400 million I think. 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Trailer was pretty good so I think  it will still do around 400 million I think. 

Very aggressive OWeek estimate.

[Gokai Red]

I don't think Chadwick's passing will have any major effect on the box office positive or negative, due to simply how big the first BP was already. Compare The Last Jedi after Carrie Fisher's passing which was after the biggest movie of all time, against The Dark Knight or Furious 7, which were able to increase from much lower starting points. The movie's box office prospects will depend largely on reception. 

 

BP was already a monster, and a decrease would have already been expected when the sequel was originally announced even before Chadwick's passing. Right now, I'll go 215/560

 

[Torontofan]

Anything over 400 million is a sucess for this i think. 

[Valonqar]

WF is not comparable to TDK, TLJ and F7. All these movies had the sadly departed stars fully in the movie so there was "last perfromance" hype (though, technically, Ledger and Walker had another movie coming after ) and Fisher wasn't even the lead. 

 

That said, the impact will be easy to gauge after the opening weekend when the story and who the new BP is are known. People will comparare old BP to new one and also whether the transition from one to another was organic or forced. Stuff like that. 

[jedijake]

4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

WF is not comparable to TDK, TLJ and F7. All these movies had the sadly departed stars fully in the movie so there was "last perfromance" hype (though, technically, Ledger and Walker had another movie coming after ) and Fisher wasn't even the lead. 

 

That said, the impact will be easy to gauge after the opening weekend when the story and who the new BP is are known. People will comparare old BP to new one and also whether the transition from one to another was organic or forced. Stuff like that. 

I don't think people will compare the new BP to Chadwick's BP. They'd do that if he were recast. The new BP will be a whole new person and someone we already know undoubtedly. So it will be more about how the said character fits with the title of BP than comparing the two.

 

But you are absolutely correct about TDK, TLJ, and F7. BP2 is uncharted territory as far as the circumstances go. 

 

If the OW is big enough, the movie will get to $500 million regardless of possible steep drops. (but then again, we said that about DS2). Personally, I don't see them holding back with BP2, though, in terms of what they claim to offer. It will be what it intends to be. That will help the movie if those intentions are delivered well. The first trailer seems to indicate that it will.

[jedijake]

I've seen online in other places comments about Ryan Coogler's speech and communication which is rude. I have not seen anyone here do that thank Heavens. I also read that he struggled with stuttering and had to overcome obstacles when it came to communication. Not that anyone here would doubt his creativity and abilities, but this video. The immense attention to detail in every aspect of this shot shows how truly brilliant Ryan is and should dispell all doubts about the quality of BP2.

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

 

[XXR vs XXR]

Crunching the numbers, I’m becoming more confident in this banking $600M+ domestically. If we look at all the direct sequel numbers in the MCU, the biggest drop off in tickets sold is TA1 -> AOU with a 30% decline. A similar decline in WF would be $490M at the same prices as 2018 but with current prices it’s about $100M more. My current expectation is a 25% decrease in tickets sold, which should put the box office around $625M.

 

[Factcheck]

3 minutes ago, In XXR We Trust said:

Crunching the numbers, I’m becoming more confident in this banking $600M+ domestically. If we look at all the direct sequel numbers in the MCU, the biggest drop off in tickets sold is TA1 -> AOU with a 30% decline. A similar decline in WF would be $490M at the same prices as 2018 but with current prices it’s about $100M more. My current expectation is a 25% decrease in tickets sold, which should put the box office around $625M.

 

Just like TGM got extra support from republicans/conservatives, this movie will get extra support from democrats/liberals so 600M+ definitely possible.

[DAJK]

I'm honestly really confident in this. Got the trailer at my 6th showing (lol) of Maverick last night, and honestly it plays really really well. While I definitely overpredicted Marvel's other 2 releases this year, I do have a pretty good feeling about this. I do think it will decrease from the first, even with ticket-price inflation, but 550-600 domestic wouldn't surprise me at all. Especially given how barren the release schedule is between now and Nov 11. 

[eddyxx]

If Ryan Coogler pulls this off, Disney should green light whatever passion project he wants!

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

If Ryan Coogler pulls this off, Disney should green light whatever passion project he wants!

Im hoping he ends up doing Secret Wars.

[eddyxx]

I would love for him to do it but I don’t think he’d be interested.

[jedijake]

I wonder if there are any plans to re-release BP1 in theaters before BP2's release.

[Eric Duncan]

 

[cookieleeann]