Weekend Estimates (page 9): Ralph 25.8M | The Grinch 17.7M | Creed 16.8M | Grindelwald 11.2M | Bohemian Rhapsody 8.1M | Instant Family 7.2M | Hannah Grace 6.5M

[WrathOfHan]

Nov 30: 9.2M (4.5M weekdays, 170M Total)

Dec 7: 9.2M (4.1M weekdays, 183.3M Total)

Dec 14: 6.2M (4.5M weekdays, 194M Total)

Dec 21: 3.4M (3.3M weekdays, 200.7M Total)

Dec 28: 2.3M (2.7M weekdays, 205.7M Total)

Jan 4: 1.5M (500k weekdays, 207.7M Total)

Final Total: 211M (4.13x)

 

There's almost no way Bohemian Rhapsody misses 200M now. Bohemian Rhapsody had a pretty light Tuesday this week, so as long as next Tuesday goes back to the regular 45%+, staying flat or increasing next weekend looks likely. We're entering unknown territory here as Birdman and Hugo were the only wide releases this decade to have a sub-35% drop after Thanksgiving; the former increased the following weekend while the latter dropped 20%. The fact Bohemian Rhapsody could drop under 30% this weekend is absolutely INSANE. Even if it drops 15-20% next weekend, it can still hit 200 without a fudge. FWIW, Instant Family and Green Book can probably increase next weekend too if their drops are on par or better than BR's this weekend.

[Hejira]

Hopefully, the success of Peter Rabbit and Instant Family (Juliet, Naked did decent w/ limited release as well) will finally convince Hollywood to offer Rose Bryne more leading parts. As much as I enjoyed her supporting turns in Bridesmaids and Spy, she really should've been a bigger star.

[babz06]

7 hours ago, Slambros said:

 

From the Thursday night preview showings alone, a film from India in 300 theaters has already surpassed Hannah Grace, which is in over 2,000 theaters. I don't think Sony / Screen Gems is happy right now.

It cost 6m to make , Sony is not crying about this. Easy money.

[MrGlass2]

is still chasing .

 

  is still chasing .

[charlie Jatinder]

2.0 has bombed at Indian and Overseas box office. Biggest disaster of India in terms of absolute loss.

[That One Girl]

Green Book is the definition of an absolute shrug of movie.  I’m baffled by the amount of critical praise it’s received.

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

Green Book is the definition of an absolute shrug of movie.  I’m baffled by the amount of critical praise it’s received.

"Pizza pie, bada bing bada boom, stromboli, folded hands." -Viggo Mortensen

[Impact]

I put this on the weekend predicts-but dang next week is even worse. I didn't realize it until now that NOTHING is coming out next week! Surprise nothing moved to that date.

[filmlover]

58 minutes ago, Impact said:

I put this on the weekend predicts-but dang next week is even worse. I didn't realize it until now that NOTHING is coming out next week! Surprise nothing moved to that date.

The re-release of Schindler’s List is opening in 1,000+ theaters. It’s gonna make zilch, though.

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

Green Book is the definition of an absolute shrug of movie.  I’m baffled by the amount of critical praise it’s received.

What’s weirder is it’s doing that well with critics awards despite only having an 82% tomatometer.  Which isn’t all that great for an awards contender.

Edited December 1, 2018 by PANDA

[Zakiyyah6]

Some critics groups are trying to predict the Oscars as well as pick out their favorites. 

[Krissykins]

8 hours ago, Hejira said:

Hopefully, the success of Peter Rabbit and Instant Family (Juliet, Naked did decent w/ limited release as well) will finally convince Hollywood to offer Rose Bryne more leading parts. As much as I enjoyed her supporting turns in Bridesmaids and Spy, she really should've been a bigger star.

She really is fabulous. But her recent choices have been a bit naff. 

 

Bridesmaids and Spy are still her best. 

[Krissykins]

Hannah Grace might not get to $6m with that Friday. But it’s got to be considered a small win, easily beating its (very low) tracking. 

 

Looking at the spend, they’ll be fine with this as basically an ad campaign for streaming 

[Nova]

9 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Green Book is the definition of an absolute shrug of movie.  I’m baffled by the amount of critical praise it’s received.

 

7 hours ago, PANDA said:

What’s weirder is it’s doing that well with critics awards despite only having an 82% tomatometer.  Which isn’t all that great for an awards contender.

 

7 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Some critics groups are trying to predict the Oscars as well as pick out their favorites. 

It's what happens when we have pre-deteremined favorites in the awards race. Before anyone has seen a film, folks will say it's in the awards discussion with so and so getting a performance nod. 

 

I cannot wait for the day when movies are added to the awards discussion based on their own merit and not because it opened X or Y festival or because it has a November release so clearly it's an Oscar movie. 

[That One Girl]

15 minutes ago, Nova said:

 

 

It's what happens when we have pre-deteremined favorites in the awards race. Before anyone has seen a film, folks will say it's in the awards discussion with so and so getting a performance nod. 

 

I cannot wait for the day when movies are added to the awards discussion based on their own merit and not because it opened X or Y festival or because it has a November release so clearly it's an Oscar movie. 

 

I think Green Book only started to pick up traction when it won the TIFF award (and now the NBR).  Clearly people like it a lot.  I just don’t understand why.

[Nova]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

 

I think Green Book only started to pick up traction when it won the TIFF award (and now the NBR).  Clearly people like it a lot.  I just don’t understand why.

To be honest, as more people see it, I’ve heard more negative things about it versus how it was perceived at TIFF. I mean with all the praise it’s getting id expect a better RT and MT score but as Panda pointed out, it has an 82% on RT and 70% on Metacritic. I’m by no means saying that’s bad or anything. Heck for a best picture nominee it’s fine/good but the praise/awards love it’s going to get doesn’t really correlate with how critics are responding to it. 

 

 I mean any other film that has that type of critical reception gets laughed at if brought up as a best picture nominee so I don’t know what’s going on with it 

Edited December 1, 2018 by Nova

[WrathOfHan]

Green Book is the number one choice for the old white guy crowd this year. That’s probably how it’ll get nominated.

[Mr Terrific]

17 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Green Book is the number one choice for the old white guy crowd this year. That’s probably how it’ll get nominated.

That's funny for me. As an old white guy, I was interested in the story and the actors. But, the negative buzz (pandering, cloying, etc.) pushed me away. 

[POTUS 2020]

https://deadline.com/2018/12/the-possession-of-hannah-grace-grabs-625k-in-thursday-night-previews-1202511705/

 

1	Ralph Breaks…	Dis	4,017	$5.8M (-73%)	$25.1M (-55%)	$118.6M	2
	2	The Grinch	Uni/Ill	3,924 (-26)	$3.8M (-67%)	$16.8M (-44%)	$202.5M	4
	3	Creed	MGM/NL	3,576 (+135)	$4.8M (-66%)	$16.4M (-54%)	$80.7M	2
	4	Fantastic Beasts 2	WB	3,851 (-312)	$2.9M (-75%)	$10.6M (-64%)	$133.7M	3
	5	Bohemian Rhapsody	Fox/NR/GK	3,007 (+80)	$2M (-60%)	$7.9M (-44%)	$164.2M	5
	6	Instant Family	Par	3,376 (+90)	$2M (-56%)	$7.3M (-41%)	$46.1M	3
	7	…Hannah Grace	Sony	2,065	$2.45M	$6.1M	$6.1M	1
	8	Robin Hood	20th/NR	2,827	$1.3M (-62%)	$4.5M (-51%)	$21.5M	2
	9	Widows	20th/NR	2,393 (-410)	$1.2M (-60%)	$4.2M (-48%)	$32.9M	3
	10	Green Book	Uni/DW/Part	1,065 (+2)	$1.1M (-43%)	$4.1M (-26%)	$14.2M	3

Edited December 1, 2018 by POTUS

[That One Girl]

If that Ralph drop holds, it’s 5% more than Moana’s drop.  Good news for my club.