Weekend Thread 12/28-12/30 AQM 51.5 MPR 28 BB 20.5 ITSV 18.3

[kswiston]

https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-mary-poppins-returns-bumblebee-new-years-weekend-box-office-1202526812/

 

51.6M for Aquaman, 31.9M for Poppins, 20.5M for Bumblebee, and 19M for Spider-verse

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, kswiston said:

https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-mary-poppins-returns-bumblebee-new-years-weekend-box-office-1202526812/

 

51.6M for Aquaman, 31.9M for Poppins, 20.5M for Bumblebee, and 19M for Spider-verse

Wow, Very good for Spider-verse

[Brinatico]

First Aqua and Mary numbers.

 

2nd Update Friday 11:20 PM: Refresh for chart Warner Bros.’ Aquaman is heading for an estimated second weekend of $51.6M, -23%, after a second Friday of $16.8M.

Mary Poppins Returns, which is odd considering it’s the definite No. 2 movie of the pre-New Year’s weekend with $31.9M, +36% from its first weekend, with a running total of $102.8M

 

 

I think Aqua friday number going to be a little up from this estimate. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by Brinatico

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, kswiston said:

https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-mary-poppins-returns-bumblebee-new-years-weekend-box-office-1202526812/

 

51.6M for Aquaman, 31.9M for Poppins, 20.5M for Bumblebee, and 19M for Spider-verse

On Screen Engine/ComScore’s PostTrak, which continues to poll into a film’s second weekend, women over 25 at 21% are still Jason Momoa’s biggest fans giving the Aquaman its best gender score of 84%. Moms are out-numbering dads in attendance, 52% to 48% and they’re smitten with this DC superhero by a wide gap, 82% to 60%. Families are repping close to a third of the crowd, and guys under 25 make-up the biggest portion of moviegoers at 31%.

Through 10-days (with previews), Aquaman is bound to total $188.8M, which is 10% ahead of Justice League at the same point in time (which ended its run at $229M), 23% ahead of the 10-day cume of Doctor Strange (final B.O. $232.6M) and 7% ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy (final B.O. $333.1M). Aquaman is also 8% behind the 10-day total of Wonder Woman (which was at $206.3M, and finaled at $412.5M). Nancy Tartaglione says DC’s fish man will hit $750M WW by Sunday, eclipsing the entire global life of Justice League ($657.9M). Yes, it’s true: Warners has resuscitated DC.

[TMP]

 

Aquadude over Homecoming dom looking likely.

Poppins isn't floppins anymore, but it's still gonna be about half as big as I was expecting 🙈. Disney should be happy either way

Spidey/Bumblebee getting some sexy legs

[MikeQ]

Though obviously aided by the December holiday season, Aquaman could have one of the best multipliers ever for a live action comic book movie. Multipliers aren't directly comparable given summer comic book films similarly benefit from summer weekdays, higher opening weekends make a film at least somewhat more frontloaded usually (so high multipliers are generally more impressive the larger the opening weekend), etc - but still, good WOM seems to be driving a strong performance over the holidays. Also, it does seem to highlight how studios have avoided tentpole-ing a comic book film during the December holidays until now.

 

Best Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Friday Openers:

 

Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier)

(List under spoiler tag)

Spoiler

 

1. Batman (1989) — 40.5 million (6.20)
2. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
3. Batman Returns (1992) — 45.7 million (3.56)
4. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
5. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52)
6. Batman Forever (1995) — 52.8 million (3.49)
7. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47)
8. The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38)
9. MIB 3 (2012) — 54.6 million (3.28)
10. Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23)
11. Ant-Man (2015) — 57.2 million (3.15)
12. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (3.00)
13. 300 (2007) — 70.9 million (2.97)
14. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) — 65.6 million (2.92)
15. X-Men (2000) — 54.5 million (2.89)
16. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 117.0 million (2.86)
17. Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) — 75.8 million (2.86)
18. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 160.9 million (2.79)
19. Fantastic Four (2005) — 56.1 million (2.76)
20. Thor (2011) — 65.7 million (2.75)
21. Doctor Strange (2016) — 85.1 million (2.74)
22. Deadpool (2016) — 132.4 million (2.74)
23. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 95.0 million (2.73)
24. Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) — 65.1 million (2.72)
25. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.5 million (2.66)
26. X-Men: First Class (2011) — 55.1 million (2.66)
27. Venom (2018) — 80.3 million (2.65)^
28. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 257.7 million (2.63)
29. X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 90.8 million (2.58)
30. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 122.7 million (2.57)
31. Logan (2017) — 88.4 million (2.56)
32. Ghost Rider (2007) — 45.4 million (2.55)
33. Daredevil (2003) — 40.3 million (2.54)
34. X2: X-Men United (2003) — 85.6 million (2.51)
35. Man of Steel (2013) — 116.6 million (2.50)
36. Batman and Robin (1997) — 42.9 million (2.50)
37. The Wolverine (2013) — 53.1 million (2.49)
38. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (2.44)
39. Justice League (2017) — 93.8 million (2.44)
40. Suicide Squad (2016) — 133.7 million (2.43)
41. The Incredible Hulk (2008) — 55.4 million (2.43)
42. Thor: The Dark World (2013) — 85.7 million (2.41)
43. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (2.40)
44. 300: Rise of an Empire (2014) — 45.0 million (2.37)
45. X-Men: Apocalypse (2016) — 65.8 million (2.36)
46. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (2.35)
47. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (2.28)
48. X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (2.28)
49. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) — 58.1 million (2.27)
50. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (2.23)
51. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 91.6 million (2.21)
52. Green Lantern (2011) — 53.2 million (2.19)
53. Hulk (2003) — 62.1 million (2.13)
54. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) — 85.1 million (2.11)
55. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (1.99)
56. Watchmen (2009) — 55.2 million (1.95)

 

 

Peace, 

Mike

Edited December 29, 2018 by MikeQ

[Brinatico]

Weeken for Aquaboy could be:

 

Fri:  $17.5  -  +20%

Sat: $20.1 -  +15%

Sun: $17  -  -15%

Weekend: $54.6

[RealLyre]

34 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 it produces a lot of excellent international original content, like the Brazilian dystopian series 3% and the Spanish crime-thriller Money Heist, etc, etc. And the diverse original content that it produces is available globally.

Netflix did not make Money Heist/La Casa De Papel. it was made by Spanish TV network Antena 3 and Netflix just acquired the licences to stream it globally months after it aired on local TV in Spain. but it's not a Netflix original by any means. It's one of the best shows of 2018/2017 though and Netflix played a huge role in increasing it's popularity but they still had nothing to do with its production (first 2 seasons at least, they might be working on the 3rd).

 

 

 

 

 

[MikeQ]

If Deadline's projection of $51.6M for Aquaman proves accurate, it will best Batman v Superman's second weekend despite opening nearly $100M lower. Obviously the December holiday season aids legs, so I'm not suggesting this is a directly comparable situation, but good WOM (versus what was clearly at least mixed WOM for BvS) is helping give the DCEU a leggy holiday success.

 

Best 2nd Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies

 

Title (Year) — 2nd Weekend Gross (Drop from Opening Weekend)

1. Avengers: Infinity War — 114.8 million (-55.5%)
2. Black Panther (2018) — 111.7 million (-44.7%)
3. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 103.1 million (-50.3%)
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 77.7 million (-59.4%)
5. The Dark Knight (2008) — 75.2 million (-52.5%)
6. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 72.6 million (-59.5%)
7. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 72.5 million (-58.4%)
8. Spider-Man (2002) — 71.4 million (-37.8%)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 65.3 million (-55.5%)
10. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 62.1 million (-61.4%)
11. Wonder Woman (2017) — 58.5 million (-43.3%)
12. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 58.2 million (-61.5%)
13. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 57.1 million (-53.5%)
14. Deadpool (2016) — 56.5 million (-57.4%)
15. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 52.0 million (-59.4%)
16. Aquaman (2018) — 51.6 million (-23.5%)^
17. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 51.3 million (-69.1%)
18. Iron Man (2008) — 51.2 million (-48.1%)
19. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 45.2 million (-48.7%)*
20. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 44.2 million (-62.2%)
21. Suicide Squad (2016) — 43.5 million (-67.4%)
22. Deadpool 2 (2018) — 43.5 million (-65.4%)***
23. Doctor Strange (2016) — 43.0 million (-49.5%)
24. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 42.1 million (-55.3%)
25. Man of Steel (2013) — 41.3 million (-64.6%)**

*Opened on a Wednesday

**Opened on Father’s Day Weekend

*** Second weekend was Memorial Day weekend

^December holiday weekend

 

Peace,

Mike

[MikeQ]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Netflix did not make Money Heist/La Casa De Papel. it was made by Spanish TV network Antena 3 and Netflix just acquired the licences to stream it globally months after it aired on local TV in Spain. but it's not a Netflix original by any means. It's one of the best shows of 2018/2017 though and Netflix played a huge role in increasing it's popularity but they still had nothing to do with its production (first 2 seasons at least, they might be working on the 3rd).

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you for this. I get what you're saying, it is not original in the sense that they aren't the ones that produced it originally. But, as far as their reach as a platform goes, I would still like to highlight it as an example of their Netflix Original content (whether produced originally by them or acquired) finding global audiences. The series is branded as a "Netflix Original", and released as such (acquired, edited, and released worldwide), and they are producing the third season.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Krissykins]

Too many comments to multi quote them and I don’t want to spam this thread for people scrolling through. 

 

But yeh we don’t know how much of Bird Box an account has to watch to count as a view. I wonder if it’s a certain percentage to count like Youtube.

 

Also though, it’s by account. 7 different people in my family watched it on my one single account. So the number of actual viewers could be much higher, or at least make up the difference from people who turned it off. 

[titanic2187]

BOX OFFICE FOR DEC. 28-30

THUMB	RANK	FILM	DIS.	SCREENS (CHG)	FRIDAY	WEEKEND B.O.	TOTAL	WK
	1	Aquaman	WB	4,125	$16.8M (-40%)	$51.6M (-23%)	$188.8M	2
	2	Mary Poppins Returns	Dis	4,090	$10.7M (+60%)	$31.9M (+36%)	$102.8M	2
	3	Bumblebee	Par	3,550	$6.7M (-21%)	$20.5M (-5%)	$66.8M	2
	4	…Spider-Verse	Sony	3,813	$6.4M (+33%)	$19M (+16%)	$104.3M	3
	5	The Mule	WB/Bron	2,787 (+131)	$3.9M (+44%)	$12.3M (+29%)	$61.2M	3
	6	Vice	ANNP	2,442	$2.7M	$8.2M	$18.1M	1
	7	Ralph Breaks…	Dis	2,343 (-152)	$2.5M (+90%)	$7.3M (+57%)	$176.6M	6
	8	Holmes & Watson	Sony	2,776	$2.55M	$7.6M	$20M	1
	9	Second Act	STX	2,607	$2.1M (-15%)	$6.4M (0%)	$21M	2
	10	The Grinch	Uni/Ill	2,555 (-225)	$1.6M (-31%)	$4.8M (-42%)	$266.2M	8
	11	Mary Queen…	Focus	841 (+46)	$925K (+22%)	$3M (+35%)	$9.4M	4
	12	The Favourite	FSL	809 (+19)	$749K (+19%)	$2.2M (+9%)	$15M	6
	13	…Marwen	Uni/DW	1,911	$756K (-16%)	$2.2M (-4%)	$7.7M	2

[maxalcamo]

Netflix is "television".

I think since like ever in the really short term tv contents  can have more viewers than something in the theaters. How can you compare the different access for the people?

In the 90's E.r had 40 millions viewers for episode, a movie  would have done a 170M first weekend (in the 90s!!) with those tickets 😅.

The point is movies have a life in theaters, a life in home video, a life on demand, a life in Netflix, a life on cable channels, a life on broadcast free channels. A netflix movie has only one life: Netflix.

Talking about money: even with only 10 M tickets sold (so not 40M viewers) that  #1 movie in the 90s still made probably around 10 times the  money E.R did with the advertising that week

The time when a producer with a movie with a potential will release a movie only on Netflix because it will have more viewers in the first seven days is still very very far from here. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by maxalcamo

[RealLyre]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

BOX OFFICE FOR DEC. 28-30

THUMB	RANK	FILM	DIS.	SCREENS (CHG)	FRIDAY	WEEKEND B.O.	TOTAL	WK
	1	Aquaman	WB	4,125	$16.8M (-40%)	$51.6M (-23%)	$188.8M	2
	2	Mary Poppins Returns	Dis	4,090	$10.7M (+60%)	$31.9M (+36%)	$102.8M	2
	3	Bumblebee	Par	3,550	$6.7M (-21%)	$20.5M (-5%)	$66.8M	2
	4	…Spider-Verse	Sony	3,813	$6.4M (+33%)	$19M (+16%)	$104.3M	3
	5	The Mule	WB/Bron	2,787 (+131)	$3.9M (+44%)	$12.3M (+29%)	$61.2M	3
	6	Vice	ANNP	2,442	$2.7M	$8.2M	$18.1M	1
	7	Ralph Breaks…	Dis	2,343 (-152)	$2.5M (+90%)	$7.3M (+57%)	$176.6M	6
	8	Holmes & Watson	Sony	2,776	$2.55M	$7.6M	$20M	1
	9	Second Act	STX	2,607	$2.1M (-15%)	$6.4M (0%)	$21M	2
	10	The Grinch	Uni/Ill	2,555 (-225)	$1.6M (-31%)	$4.8M (-42%)	$266.2M	8
	11	Mary Queen…	Focus	841 (+46)	$925K (+22%)	$3M (+35%)	$9.4M	4
	12	The Favourite	FSL	809 (+19)	$749K (+19%)	$2.2M (+9%)	$15M	6
	13	…Marwen	Uni/DW	1,911	$756K (-16%)	$2.2M (-4%)	$7.7M	2

Mary Poppins with the highest increase in the top 5

Jumanji legs in play? 

[Legion Again]

Deadline forecasting a +57% weekend for Ralph despite losing ~6% of its screens. This doesn’t really have a precedent from the 2012 or 2007 Dec 28-30 weekends, but is a bit reminiscent of HP & Sorcerer’s Stone (+55% after -4% TC) and Monsters Inc. (+60% after -19% TC) which were in roughly similar parts of their run. 200M could be back in play if the estimates hold.

Edited December 29, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[aabattery]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Moms are out-numbering dads in attendance, 52% to 48% and they’re smitten with this DC superhero by a wide gap, 82% to 60%.

 

[reddevil19]

42 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

As much as I love him and the character, that will never NOT be creepy to me.

[Krissykins]

Deadline need to stop trying to compare Mary Poppins to Greatest Showman. 

 

Of course MPR should be well ahead. It shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s not a shock that a direct sequel to Mary Bloody Poppins from Disney at Christmas really should be doing gigantic business. 

[maxalcamo]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Deadline need to stop trying to compare Mary Poppins to Greatest Showman. 

 

Of course MPR should be well ahead. It shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s not a shock that a direct sequel to Mary Bloody Poppins from Disney at Christmas really should be doing gigantic business. 

I don't think the comparison is to say both are the same thing or they have the same relevance as brand but both are christmas musicals relesead year by year so the comparison is  really inevitable. MPR did a +100% than The Greatest Showman in the first week. It's doing a +100% and even more in the second week so again it's pretty normal to me to compare both titles to analyse where MRP could go. 

[a2k]

50+ for AQM looks good

16.8

18.5 (+10%)

14.8 (-20%) // 50.1 FSS

10.4 (-30%)

15.6 (+50%) // 76.1 5-day

 

213.3 cume by 1st Jan, 86.7 away from 300 dom

Edited December 29, 2018 by a2k