Weekend Thread 12/28-12/30 AQM 51.5 MPR 28 BB 20.5 ITSV 18.3

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

Unless Netflix can produce visually stimulating stuff, it won't overcome theatrical events.

 

Roma was probably the visually (and auditorily) stimulating movie I have seen all year outside of maybe They Shall not Grow Old and Mandy.

 

Also, Apostle was extremely visually stimulating but I don't think audiences really care about mid-budget horror films anymore.

 

I feel like Bright could have done really well last year. It is absolute junk but I think people really liked it (but that could be because the movie was basically free). All the boys I Loved Before could have also been a moderate hit because of the same reasons as Crazy Rich Asians. A well-made movie with representation seems like a great formula for box office success.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

That Deadline jump for Poppins is only 2 percentage points behind Jumanji's second weekend jump. It would also make it the 5th highest 2nd weekend jump for a movie in 3,000+ theaters. We shouldn't expect it to have the same run, but it does show WOM is kicking in, and 200M is a lock. Hopefully 250M can happen, considering it has no major competition until Lego (and I guess to a lesser extent Glass since that will probably take up a bunch of screens).

 

Aquaman should also make around 350M, Bumblebee will pass The Last Knight, and Spider-Verse should reach $150M.

[Nova]

Wow. Mary Poppins doing $30M+ in its second weekend and going over $100M domestic despite all week some posters still calling it a failure. 

 

Its almost like a film like Mary Poppins is more of a slow burn type of movie as opposed to a rush out and see it type of movie. Also I could have sworn several posters said this would happen last weekend only to be met with other posters telling them that MPR is a failure and a bomb. An interesting unfolding of events has occurred. 

[Nova]

Also I want to take the time and make a note that WB was stupid to move Wonder Woman from December 2019 to June 2020. We are seeing first hand that December can give CBM great legs and WB could have made it a yearly thing for them to release one of their CBM in that slot. At this point though, there’s nothing stopping Disney from seeing how Aquaman is performing and going “hmm maybe we should start releasing one of our CBM during the Christmas period.” And suddenly a Marvel Disney CBM takes that spot when it could have belonged to WB. 

[Cmasterclay]

Never a doubt on Mary Poppins baby!! Certainly didn't make any extremely negative posts about how disappointing a run it was having!!

[Heat Vision]

11 minutes ago, Nova said:

Also I want to take the time and make a note that WB was stupid to move Wonder Woman from December 2019 to June 2020. We are seeing first hand that December can give CBM great legs and WB could have made it a yearly thing for them to release one of their CBM in that slot. At this point though, there’s nothing stopping Disney from seeing how Aquaman is performing and going “hmm maybe we should start releasing one of our CBM during the Christmas period.” And suddenly a Marvel Disney CBM takes that spot when it could have belonged to WB. 

It was November 2019. Still a weird delay considering WW84 will have 18 months of post production.

[lorddemaxus]

15 minutes ago, Nova said:

Also I want to take the time and make a note that WB was stupid to move Wonder Woman from December 2019 to June 2020. We are seeing first hand that December can give CBM great legs and WB could have made it a yearly thing for them to release one of their CBM in that slot. At this point though, there’s nothing stopping Disney from seeing how Aquaman is performing and going “hmm maybe we should start releasing one of our CBM during the Christmas period.” And suddenly a Marvel Disney CBM takes that spot when it could have belonged to WB. 

Wonder Woman was November 2019. December 2019 is already pretty crowded with two 300 mil+ DOM movies releasing that month. This year Aquaman is the only 300 mil+ DOM film. Poppins might also reach 300 mil but if that happens it will likely be after Aquaman makes most of its money. Episode 9 and Jumanji will be frontloaded and I don't see Wonder Woman (which would also be more frontloaded compared to other Christmas releases) do well in Christmas. Episode 9, Jumanji, and Wonder Woman would be a much bigger battle than December this year and one of these films would underperform greatly because of this. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by lorddemaxus

[reddevil19]

7 minutes ago, Nova said:

Also I want to take the time and make a note that WB was stupid to move Wonder Woman from December 2019 to June 2020. We are seeing first hand that December can give CBM great legs and WB could have made it a yearly thing for them to release one of their CBM in that slot. At this point though, there’s nothing stopping Disney from seeing how Aquaman is performing and going “hmm maybe we should start releasing one of our CBM during the Christmas period.” And suddenly a Marvel Disney CBM takes that spot when it could have belonged to WB. 

I think Disney's decision to place MCU movies in December would be far more tied to what they do with the (supposedly 100% real, existing, totally filmed and not a myth) Avatar sequels. AQM performing this well would have given them food for thought regardless of what WB does with WW84. The way I see it is that WB's post-WW84 DC slate doesn't look potent enough to stand up to Disney moving an MCU movie against it. So rather than WB staking a claim on the December date, we might have seen them blink or, worse for the brand, stand its ground and lose the battle at the box office...

 

I definitely think WW84 should have stayed put, but any movie beyond that for December releases... 

Maybe they can push Shazam back for next December instead.  

[CoolioD1]

11 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Never a doubt on Mary Poppins baby!! Certainly didn't make any extremely negative posts about how disappointing a run it was having!!

smart move on my part to not post about it last weekend. was waiting to see legs before i had a meltdown. was sat reading last weekend's thread like

 

[IronJimbo]

56 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

What, from 2 to 6 million? 

2nd to 6th

 

Sounds like Man Uniteds recent history 😂

[sfran43]

 

[reddevil19]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

2nd to 6th

 

Sounds like Man Uniteds recent history 😂

Closing in on 5th!  

And careful with that schadenfreude - United's tumble from the top of heap might serve as a lesson to someone like Jim, who has nowhere to go but down.

[Manny G]

Lol look at  all these Disney zealots coming out of the woods shouting victory because a certain movie ended up not being a embarrassment.  What happened to it being THE movie of the holiday? Now y’all are reduced to celebrate the movie doing Greatest Showman numbers which is quite funny considering Greatest Showman had much lower budget much lower critical score much lower hype and a much smaller machine behind.

 

funny how the mighty have fallen.

Edited December 29, 2018 by Manny G

[PatrickvD]

Saw MPR and thought it was as well done as it could have been. A sequel to such an iconic film is no easy task. And it does have some beautiful music that sounds as if it were composed by any of the golden era’s composers. And Emily Blunt, you just can’t keep your eyes off of her from the moment she enters the film.

 

200M would be deserved in my opinion. It has its flaws, but as far as original movie musicals go it really is a well crafted film.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Just now, Manny G said:

Lol look at the all Disney zealots coming out of the woods shouting victory because a certain movie ended up not being a embarrassment.  What happened to it being THE movie of the holiday? Reduced to Celebrate the movie doing Greatest Showman numbers which is funny considering Greatest Showman has much lower budget much lower critical score much lower hype and a much smaller machine behind.

 

funny how the mighty have fallen.

[Elessar]

3 hours ago, Fielding said:

Let's hope so (and I'm someone who loathes the current state of the film industry).

Hopefully not!

 

Without Netflix and similar streaming services we would have never gotten some great TV shows because regular TV sucks.

Edited December 29, 2018 by Elessar

[sfran43]

 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

26 minutes ago, Nova said:

Also I want to take the time and make a note that WB was stupid to move Wonder Woman from December 2019 to June 2020. We are seeing first hand that December can give CBM great legs and WB could have made it a yearly thing for them to release one of their CBM in that slot. At this point though, there’s nothing stopping Disney from seeing how Aquaman is performing and going “hmm maybe we should start releasing one of our CBM during the Christmas period.” And suddenly a Marvel Disney CBM takes that spot when it could have belonged to WB. 

To be fair, December 2019 does have a Jumanji and a Star Wars movie. Diana's a Queen, but....that's still pretty formidable competition compared to what Aquabrah faced.

[Elessar]

30 minutes ago, Nova said:

Wow. Mary Poppins doing $30M+ in its second weekend and going over $100M domestic despite all week some posters still calling it a failure. 

 

Its almost like a film like Mary Poppins is more of a slow burn type of movie as opposed to a rush out and see it type of movie. Also I could have sworn several posters said this would happen last weekend only to be met with other posters telling them that MPR is a failure and a bomb. An interesting unfolding of events has occurred. 

Some of us were laughing at the crazy 400m predictions and we are still.

[MagnarTheGreat]

7 hours ago, MikeQ said:

Though obviously aided by the December holiday season, Aquaman could have one of the best multipliers ever for a live action comic book movie. Multipliers aren't directly comparable given summer comic book films similarly benefit from summer weekdays, higher opening weekends make a film at least somewhat more frontloaded usually (so high multipliers are generally more impressive the larger the opening weekend), etc - but still, good WOM seems to be driving a strong performance over the holidays. Also, it does seem to highlight how studios have avoided tentpole-ing a comic book film during the December holidays until now.

 

Best Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Friday Openers:

 

Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier)

(List under spoiler tag)

  Reveal hidden contents

 

1. Batman (1989) — 40.5 million (6.20)
2. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
3. Batman Returns (1992) — 45.7 million (3.56)
4. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
5. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52)
6. Batman Forever (1995) — 52.8 million (3.49)
7. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47)
8. The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38)
9. MIB 3 (2012) — 54.6 million (3.28)
10. Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23)
11. Ant-Man (2015) — 57.2 million (3.15)
12. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (3.00)
13. 300 (2007) — 70.9 million (2.97)
14. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) — 65.6 million (2.92)
15. X-Men (2000) — 54.5 million (2.89)
16. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 117.0 million (2.86)
17. Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) — 75.8 million (2.86)
18. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 160.9 million (2.79)
19. Fantastic Four (2005) — 56.1 million (2.76)
20. Thor (2011) — 65.7 million (2.75)
21. Doctor Strange (2016) — 85.1 million (2.74)
22. Deadpool (2016) — 132.4 million (2.74)
23. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 95.0 million (2.73)
24. Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) — 65.1 million (2.72)
25. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.5 million (2.66)
26. X-Men: First Class (2011) — 55.1 million (2.66)
27. Venom (2018) — 80.3 million (2.65)^
28. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 257.7 million (2.63)
29. X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 90.8 million (2.58)
30. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 122.7 million (2.57)
31. Logan (2017) — 88.4 million (2.56)
32. Ghost Rider (2007) — 45.4 million (2.55)
33. Daredevil (2003) — 40.3 million (2.54)
34. X2: X-Men United (2003) — 85.6 million (2.51)
35. Man of Steel (2013) — 116.6 million (2.50)
36. Batman and Robin (1997) — 42.9 million (2.50)
37. The Wolverine (2013) — 53.1 million (2.49)
38. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (2.44)
39. Justice League (2017) — 93.8 million (2.44)
40. Suicide Squad (2016) — 133.7 million (2.43)
41. The Incredible Hulk (2008) — 55.4 million (2.43)
42. Thor: The Dark World (2013) — 85.7 million (2.41)
43. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (2.40)
44. 300: Rise of an Empire (2014) — 45.0 million (2.37)
45. X-Men: Apocalypse (2016) — 65.8 million (2.36)
46. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (2.35)
47. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (2.28)
48. X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (2.28)
49. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) — 58.1 million (2.27)
50. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (2.23)
51. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 91.6 million (2.21)
52. Green Lantern (2011) — 53.2 million (2.19)
53. Hulk (2003) — 62.1 million (2.13)
54. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) — 85.1 million (2.11)
55. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (1.99)
56. Watchmen (2009) — 55.2 million (1.95)

 

 

Peace, 

Mike

 

Ya the behavior of the audience in December more than any other time of the year takes the pressure off of openings and delays it thus increasing the multipliers.

 

Data:

 

Edited December 29, 2018 by MagnarTheGreat