4-day Weekend Official| Alita $33.50M, Lego $27.75m, Isn't Romantic $16.64M, WMW $12.21m, HDD2U $11m

[JB33]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Most interesting thing about this day vs 2013 set up...Top 10 in 2013 grossed $32M+ on the Thursday...I'm not sure we're gonna get close with the numbers we've seen so far...and those 2013 movies were no more "great" than these ones...

Yep, this is why I don't think it's an overreaction to lament about the state of the box office. Yes I know it's February. But January and February this year have been even worse compared to your typical January and February. I think some people would be in for a rude awakening if they were to see actual admission numbers.

 

Not saying the offerings have been great, but as you said they weren't that great in 2013 either. Just.....more people went to the movies.

[4815162342]

Think Alita should pull enough over the 5-day to do fairly well, prior tracking considered.

 

Legs of course we'll have to wait and see.

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I think Alita: Battle Angel should be able to increase today. 6 years ago A Good Day To Die Hard opened on Valentine's Day Thursday as well to $8,239,116, but has a measly 15% RT score and 40% Audience Score, and still only dropped 12.6% on Friday the 15th. Alita: Battle Angel has a 60% RT score and 93% Audience Score.

1

Why are we using RT audience score? There is like almost 0 correlation between the two. According to Deadline, Cinemascore for Alita is A-. Die Hard 5 had a B+. I think Alita will drop but less than Die Hard 5.

[SLAM!]

This is the most exciting weekend of the year so far. I want Alita to pull through because it'd mean a lot to the industry as a whole. People are saying it's 5-day will be in the $30M range, but I think it'll cross $40M.

[IronJimbo]

10 hours ago, Slambros said:

This is the most exciting weekend of the year so far. I want Alita to pull through because it'd mean a lot to the industry as a whole. People are saying it's 5-day will be in the $30M range, but I think it'll cross $40M.

Box Office Pro's long range tracking for Alita was $45m dom TOTAL

 

edit: actually it was $41m!

Edited February 16, 2019 by IronJimbo

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Die Hard 5 (or 6? Whatever) True Thursday would be $7mn plus compared to $6.3mn of Alita. $6.75mn would be good I guess.

Thank you for that. You confirmed what I started to think re: previews. Probably being way too generous expecting it to stay flat (from the total 8.7 number I mean), nevermind expecting it to increase.

Edited February 15, 2019 by JB33

[SLAM!]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Box Office Pro's long range tracking for Alita was $45m dom TOTAL

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by Slambros

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Why are we using RT audience score? There is like almost 0 correlation between the two. According to Deadline, Cinemascore for Alita is A-. Die Hard 5 had a B+. I think Alita will drop but less than Die Hard 5.

To be honest, I know pretty much jack all about all these different "scores" because I personally don't pay attention to any of them.

 

If cinemascore is more accurate and relevant, then Alita could indeed behave very similar to AGDTDH. Based on the info we have now, thinking around $23M-$25M for the 3-day. $80M+ domestic total.

Edited February 15, 2019 by JB33

[MrGlass2]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Why are we using RT audience score? There is like almost 0 correlation between the two.

Between the two what?

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Thank you for that. You confirmed what I started to think re: previews. Probably being way too generous expecting it to stay flat (from the total 8.7 number I mean), nevermind expecting it to increase.

Die Hard 2013 had $840K in Wed previews...the rest was all Thursday gross (so true Thursday of a little under $7.4M)...https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-die-hard-421721

Edited February 15, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

How does a movie that looks as vanilla as Captain Marvel illicit some vitriolic hatred? Is it because it has a woman in the lead? Yeah, probably.

Me and the Alt-right crowd are not looking forward to Cap Marvel for different reasons. They hate Brie Larson but I just think it looks boring.

However, in an interesting turn, the alt-right crowd has taken a liking to Alita, so expect some of TLJ haters (not all, just the identify politics type) to now suddenly contribute to Alita box office. They suddenly seen to like Cameron to some reason, what a fun outcome.

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by NCsoft

[Shivampa]

31 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I have a question.. There is a national emergency in America.. Will it affect Box Office??? 

[Blaze Heatnix]

What's the CinemaScore for Happy Death Day 2U? I'm curious.

 

Alita got an A- 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

I have a question.. There is a national emergency in America.. Will it affect Box Office??? 

If this is a serious question...no.

 

There are 31 currently declared national emergencies, still in existence from the last 3 decades...one more won't do a blessed thing to box office:)...

Edited February 15, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[DAJK]

God Pikachu weekend is gonna be awful. The Warcraft loonies that showed up for 1 weekend is going to pale in comparison

[NCsoft]

45 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Back to Alita, considering the budget the numbers are not fantastic but they’re better than tracking and will likely be in the green with a $100M/$450M-$500M performance as well as a win for Fox before they become part of a soulless monopoly.

 

This is doable and I would consider Alita a spiritual win if it reaches this range.

Sure, it would only have made back its budget... Well, 99% of directors out there wouldn't have made Alita profitable in today's climate and market, Cameron's attachment makes all the difference. The film have signs "gigantic flop" written all over it, and articles and videos are already made with the anticipation of it being "flop of the year". 

Edited February 15, 2019 by NCsoft

[a2k]

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	new	Alita: Battle Angel	20th Century Fox	$8,700,000		3,790	$2,296	$8,700,000	1
-	(1)	Isn’t it Romantic	Warner Bros.	$4,440,000	+143%	3,444	$1,289	$6,265,164	2
-	(4)	What Men Want	Paramount Pictures	$3,200,000	+228%	2,912	$1,099	$25,178,684	7
-	(3)	Happy Death Day 2U	Universal	$2,700,000	+175%	3,207	$842	$3,680,110	2
-	(2)	The LEGO Movie 2: The Secon…	Warner Bros.	$2,230,000	+107%	4,303	$518	$41,483,749	7
-	(9)	Aquaman	Warner Bros.	$330,000	+109%	2,202	$150	$329,483,766	56
-	(12)	Miss Bala	Sony Pictures	$320,000	+126%	1,744	$183	$12,887,676	14
-	(10)	Spider-Man: Into The Spider…	Sony Pictures	$300,000	+98%	1,404	$214	$180,752,090	63
-	(-)	Escape Room	Sony Pictures	$170,000	+169%	922	$184	$55,096,651	42
-	(11)	They Shall Not Grow Old	Warner Bros.	$145,000	-1%	827	$175	$14,271,708	60
-	(14)	A Dog’s Way Home	Sony Pictures	$140,000	+66%	1,385	$101	$39,447,792	35
-	(-)	A Star is Born	Warner Bros.	$100,000	+65%	456	$219	$209,011,332	133
-	(-)	The Mule	Warner Bros.	$55,000	+28%	503	$109	$102,798,150	63

 

[IronJimbo]

30 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Me and the Alt-right crowd are not looking forward to Cap Marvel for different reasons. They hate Brie Larson but I just think it looks boring.

However, in an interesting turn, the alt-right crowd has taken a liking to Alita, so expect some of TLJ haters (not all, just the identify politics type) to now sudden contribute to Alita box office. They suddenly seen to like Cameron to some reason, what a fun outcome.

 

 

 

I just watched this video and agreed with everything he said.

I'm not familar with American politics? What makes when an alt-right, there's nothing right wing about this video, if there is can you point me to it.

[Neucentro]

25 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

If this is a serious question...no.

 

There are 31 currently declared national emergencies, still in existence from the last 3 decades...one more won't do a blessed thing to box office:)...

Most of the others are national emergencies on foreign soil. This one is domestic. But if it was real emergency, it would have some impact on the box office. But this one is a political ploy meant to override the budgeting power vested in Congress by the Constitution. So it should not be considered a national emergency in real terms.

[a2k]

Aquaman 0.33m Thu for 329.48m cume

 

0.50 (+50%)

0.95 (+90%)

0.71 (-25%)

0.36 (-50%)

= 2.52 FSSM (2.16 FSS)

 

That will give it 329.48 + 2.52 = 332.0

Adding 5-6 more for 337-338 Dom is a safe guess.