CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

[cookie]

I highly doubt Captain Marvel drops 65%. Especially with minuscule competition.

[DeeCee]

It seems there’s nothing for anyone to meltdown about at either end of the spectrum. It’s up on tracking from a few weeks ago but pretty much bang on in the $140-160m band everyone has been expecting for the past week or so. 

 

Although certain individuals are trying hard with some SUBTLE posts. 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Does it really affect it that much that it causes drops in the 60s? In terms of similar films, Tomb Raider dropped 57% for its second weekend, Logan 57%, Kong: Skull Island 54%. Only recent exception is Pacific Rim 2, but that probably has more to do with the fact Ready Player One was coming out a week later, and the movie sucked.

 

I'm personally predicting a drop around 56-58%

I don’t think all schools have spring break next week so it’s not like summer weekdays in June, July and August where everyone is out of school. Spring Break will be scattered throughout the month of March and I think it might help with some weekdays but I don’t think it’ll be that big of an effect. I’d have to go look at the box office in the month of March and compare it to February and April though to be 100% sure 

[JB33]

I'm starting to think the theory of Avengers: Infinity War changing the box office landscape for MCU films, at least in terms of previews and front loading, might be accurate. We saw it with Ant-Man and the Wasp and depending on how Saturday and Sunday play out we could see it with Captain Marvel.

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

Lego2 will leg it to 110 after all (3.2x+). Should get to 200 ww now. Despite it's massive under-performance a combo of these 3 things always bodes well for profitability, 

(1) Dom > prod budget

(2) Dom >50% of WW

(3) prod budget similar to marketing budget (cause if prod budget is tiny compared to marketing like with some horror films that using it as a benchmark is not sensible).

And maybe some deal on sharing some of the cost with the Lego company product placement wise.

 

It,s rumored budget is not too dissimilar to the previous Cloudy with a Chance of meatball.

 

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$124,870,275	51.4%
+ Foreign:	$118,135,851	48.6%
= Worldwide:	$243,006,126

 

Made only 3.3m in "profits", Sony hitting the movie with an abnormal very large 30m overhead

Direct net budget: 116.84m

WW P&A: 98.5M

About no participation bonus

With on the good side 36% of it's revenue share from theatrical vs 64% after (domestic heavy showing up here)

 

 

CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS 2

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$119,793,567	43.7%
+ Foreign:	$154,532,382	56.3%
= Worldwide:	$274,325,949

 

It made 56m in profit with a 

Direct net budget: 79.8m

WW P&A: 112.5m

About no participation bonus

 

Revenues was split 121.5m from theatrical 170m after for a not particularly good home ent performance of 41% from theatrical/59% after split.

 

 

Would it have been a more intl affair like the Hotel Transylvania franchise, the second one expected to need 207m WW (77.9 dbo / 129.8 intl) with a 84m net budget and a 102m releasing cost.

 

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I'm starting to think the theory of Avengers: Infinity War changing the box office landscape for MCU films, at least in terms of previews and front loading, might be accurate. We saw it with Ant-Man and the Wasp and depending on how Saturday and Sunday play out we could see it with Captain Marvel.

Wonder also how much the fanbase is now ready to spend in average by ticket the very first 1-2 days versus the rest of the run, maybe some of the people with Internal numbers have a notion of the average ticket price by days of release ?

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Wonder also how much the fanbase is now ready to spend in average by ticket the very first 1-2 days versus the rest of the run, maybe some of the people with Internal numbers have a notion of the average ticket price by days of release ?

Could be, but I think if there is a disparity with ticket spending it's between formats (IMAX vs 3D vs regular etc.). I don't know about anywhere else but here in Canada tickets are the exact same price every day except for Tuesday.

[Barnack]

25 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Not that I know what the 2nd weekend drop will be. But I think Napoleon, Nova and Zak’s guesses are all valid. They are all grounded in historical data for the month of March and the history of certain brands (Marvel superhero films tend to drop in the 50-55 range), so why the snark?

I have no idea about second weekend drop and in generals no idea how to predict OW/legs/drops, really not where my "knowledge" is.

 

The snark was with the CM not being liked by audience referring to what seem to be an online score currently getting obvious hitjob, for an A cinemascore movie with excellent comscore exit poll metrics, not for the drop prediction.

[Eric Prime]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

I don’t think all schools have spring break next week so it’s not like summer weekdays in June, July and August where everyone is out of school. Spring Break will be scattered throughout the month of March and I think it might help with some weekdays but I don’t think it’ll be that big of an effect. I’d have to go look at the box office in the month of March and compare it to February and April though to be 100% sure 

That's also very true, and is why I have doubts on this dropping 65%. Maybe some demand gets burnt out here and there, but not to any extremes that would have been expected in the summertime. And this seems to have solid WOM and zero competition on weekend 2.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

I'm starting to think the theory of Avengers: Infinity War changing the box office landscape for MCU films, at least in terms of previews and front loading, might be accurate. We saw it with Ant-Man and the Wasp and depending on how Saturday and Sunday play out we could see it with Captain Marvel.

I don’t know if it’s because of IW. I mean it’s possible but I also think how theaters are handling these movies is way different than it was even 2-3 years ago. I mean it’s common now for these movies to open in 4,000+ theaters and take up max screens. Based on that alone, I imagine Thursday night previews for CBM theaters are clearing all the screens. I mean this isn’t an MCU example but when Deadpool opened my theater gave it 4 Thursday showtimes. Deadpool 2 got 12 showtimes for Thursday night (it was double digits for sure). I wish I could remember how my theater accommodated MCU films before on Thursday vs how it is now but if I had to bet, I’d bet it would be a similar scenario for what happened with deadpool and Deadpool 2. In short, I think the front loadedness has a lot to do with theaters giving these movies as many showtimes as possible thus inflating their previews to huge amounts (I mean mid to high teens previews is the norm now with $20M+ being a thing when not that long ago these kinds of numbers would have been unheard of) and thus burning off demand. 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

Could be, but I think if there is a disparity with ticket spending it's between formats (IMAX vs 3D vs regular etc.). I don't know about anywhere else but here in Canada tickets are the exact same price every day except for Tuesday.

Exactly, the % of the sales that are those special fans events/PLF screening, when people that prefer usually pay for 2D goes for them because of sellouts, we saw some $30-$40 tickets in New-York "news", I imagine they have an hard time selling those past the first couple of days.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

I don’t know if it’s because of IW. I mean it’s possible but I also think how theaters are handling these movies is way different than it was even 2-3 years ago. I mean it’s common now for these movies to open in 4,000+ theaters and take up max screens. Based on that alone, I imagine Thursday night previews for CBM theaters are clearing all the screens. I mean this isn’t an MCU example but when Deadpool opened my theater gave it 4 Thursday showtimes. Deadpool 2 got 12 showtimes for Thursday night (it was double digits for sure). I wish I could remember how my theater accommodated MCU films before on Thursday vs how it is now but if I had to bet, I’d bet it would be a similar scenario for what happened with deadpool and Deadpool 2. In short, I think the front loadedness has a lot to do with theaters giving these movies as many showtimes as possible thus inflating their previews to huge amounts (I mean mid to high teens previews is the norm now with $20M+ being a thing when not that long ago these kinds of numbers would have been unheard of) and thus burning off demand. 

Interesting, and a good point. I noticed that too at my theatre. There were showtimes aplenty for CM on Thursday, more than usual, even for the biggest movies.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

I mean it’s possible but I also think how theaters are handling these movies is way different than it was even 2-3 years ago. I mean it’s common now for these movies to open in 4,000+ theaters and take up max screens.

Yeah this could be a lot of it, the low screens being 6:00 pm fan events and the rest of the Thursday night being almost a regular showing ?

[AndyK]

Why would anybody think its going to drop 65%?

[Rorschach]

12 minutes ago, cookie said:

I highly doubt Captain Marvel drops 65%. Especially with minuscule competition.

Hey now, Wonder Park is gonna make a huuuuuuuuuge splash at the box office! Just you wait and see! 

[Lordmandeep]

Sat looks solid here 

 

I think 50 plus 

[TwoMisfits]

Since I haven't seen it, I won't predict a 2nd weekend drop...

 

HOWEVER, there are many things that could lead to a higher than expected drop...many of them have been listed.  But one of the most obvious ones is that CM will lose probably 1/4 - 1/3 of its current weekend showings by next weekend.  I mean, my locals 12s, set at 35 and 23 showings (7 and 5 screens) are gonna have to back off on the screens earlier than normal b/c they are booking 2-3 movies for next weekend - as of now, my Regal local has only committed to 2.5 screens for next weekend (or 1/2 as much) and my Cinemark is still undecided.  When you have insane sets weekend 1, you "drop" showings faster in weekend 2 than a normal movie...and just not having as many has an effect on numbers...

 

And a 2nd unmentioned thing - when you have insane sets for weekend 1, you can burn off demand faster.  So, it really will be a question of is there still a ton of pent up demand which will keep coming...that's still TBD...

 

 

Edited March 9, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Valonqar]

I don't see 65% drop wtf? it isn't a stinker. also, forget not passing 400M. if necessary, Disney will AWIT it to over the mark but I don't it'll be necessary. lets see how it does today and tomorrow. today should be good cause families can take kids. yesterday was a date day.

[Eric Prime]

4 minutes ago, Rorschach said:

Hey now, Wonder Park is gonna make a huuuuuuuuuge splash at the box office! Just you wait and see! 

what the chuck?

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Yeah this could be a lot of it, the low screens being 6:00 pm fan events and the rest of the Thursday night being almost a regular showing ?

Yea. I know at my theater at least these movies get put on all the big screens with some smaller screens here and there but overall we are talking about 10+ showtimes on Thursday night on the largest screens my theater has. This is just my theory of course and I have no hard evidence to actually show this but if I were to bet, I’d say the excessive showtimes on Thursday nights now plays a role in front loadedness