Wednesday Numbers Thread | VERY EARLY:CM $8.5-9M

[a2k]

8.6 Wed

8.5 Thu (@Charlie's super-early guess)

 

18.3 (+115%)

31.1 (+70%)

21.0 (-32.5%)

= 70.4 (-54.1%)

[DMan7]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

8.6 Wed

8.5 Thu (@Charlie's super-early guess)

 

18.3 (+115%)

31.1 (+70%)

21.0 (-32.5%)

= 70.4 (-54.1%)

Did that take into account the Engame trailer bump?

[Valonqar]

Just now, DMan7 said:

Did that take into account the Engame trailer bump?

No, he posted it hours before the trailer. 

[Legion Again]

8.6 Wednesday 

9.5M Thurs (@trailer bump)

 

20.4 (+115)

34.7 (+70) 

23.4 (-32.5)   

 

78.5  

 

Spoiler

I beg you, do not take this seriously

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

8.6 Wednesday 

9.5M Thurs (@trailer bump)

 

20.4 (+115)

34.7 (+70) 

23.4 (-32.5)   

 

78.5  

 

  Hide contents

I beg you, do not take this seriously

 

8.6 Wed

300 Thu

 

900 Fri

1800 Sat

1300 Sun

= 4000 weekend

 

Largest weekend in history till Piakchu releases

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, a2k said:

8.6 Wed

8.5 Thu (@Charlie's super-early guess)

 

18.3 (+115%)

31.1 (+70%)

21.0 (-32.5%)

= 70.4 (-54.1%)

For a comparison, I'd probably run with WIT as the worst case comp, since same release date equivalent (with the same spring break week for colleges) with similar set up of several smaller openers and a decent holdover market and both Disney (yes, supers vs not, but I think the same push was there for both films OW, but I think WIT definitely had a bad WOM that should make it the floor for the weekend, not the realistic estimate)...

 

If it's 8.5M for Thursday...

 

16.7 (+96)

25.3 (+52)

17.2 (-32)

= 59.20 (61%ish drop)

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For a comparison, I'd probably run with WIT as the worst case comp, since same release date equivalent (with the same spring break week for colleges) with similar set up of several smaller openers and a decent holdover market and both Disney (yes, supers vs not, but I think the same push was there for both films OW, but I think WIT definitely had a bad WOM that should make it the floor for the weekend, not the realistic estimate)...

 

If it's 8.5M for Thursday...

 

16.7 (+96)

25.3 (+52)

17.2 (-32)

= 59.20 (61%ish drop)

Yeah I think 59-71 low-high end is very reasonable. Give us that 65 weekend that everyone is expecting

[cdsacken]

Pretrailer I was going with 63/64. I will say 69 million with a drop of 55%.

[sfran43]

 

 

[sfran43]

 

[terrestrial]

 

 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

That How To Train Your Dragon number is up on last Wednesday ($1.48m).

 

It also had a low Tuesday to Tuesday drop of 14.9%. Monday to Monday was also lowish but certainly more normal at 21.3%.

 

It dropped 51% last weekend so these weekdays seem incongruous. Anyone with an idea what might cause that dynamic? Is this great mid-legs or a holiday-somewhere related thing?

 

EDIT: I also see Lego Movie 2 is also up this week, so presume it's a holiday somewhere. Never mind.

Edited March 14, 2019 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[terrestrial]

Exhibitor Relations Co.‏ @ERCboxoffice 16m16 minutes ago

More

Talk about a rollercoaster ride. Paramount's spent upwards of $100M on WONDER PARK, which rolls into 3,838 theaters this weekend and will be lucky to cash in with $10M. Remember when they had DWA? Those were the days.

[terrestrial]

Exhibitor Relations Co.‏ @ERCboxoffice 34m34 minutes ago

More

WB's SOPRANOS prequel, NEWARK, drops Sept. 25, 2020, going to the multiplex mattresses against UNTITLED SONY ANIMATION

 

 

 

[a2k]

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Captain Marvel	Walt Disney	$8,586,183	-41%	4,310	$1,992	$187,647,498	6
2	(2)	How to Train Your Dragon: T…	Universal	$1,548,105	-31%	4,042	$383	$124,849,525	20
3	(3)	Tyler Perry’s A Madea Fam…	Lionsgate	$1,027,964	-37%	2,442	$421	$50,002,334	13
4	(4)	The LEGO Movie 2: The Secon…	Warner Bros.	$491,750	-26%	2,930	$168	$98,741,807	34
5	(5)	Alita: Battle Angel	20th Century Fox	$352,117	-35%	2,374	$148	$79,588,400	28
6	(7)	Fighting With My Family	United Artists	$274,142	-32%	2,455	$112	$19,567,629	28
7	(6)	Green Book	Universal	$274,090	-35%	2,097	$131	$81,117,186	118
8	(9)	Isn’t it Romantic	Warner Bros.	$258,318	-30%	2,223	$116	$44,881,064	29
9	(8)	Greta	Focus Features	$241,405	-37%	2,417	$100	$9,147,030	13
10	(10)	What Men Want	Paramount Pictures	$160,788	-28%	1,062	$151	$52,575,990	34
11	(11)	The Upside	STX Entertainment	$127,052	-29%	1,010	$126	$104,968,016	62
-	(13)	Spider-Man: Into The Spider…	Sony Pictures	$93,184	-18%	824	$113	$189,078,204	90
-	(12)	Happy Death Day 2U	Universal	$87,775	-31%	1,098	$80	$27,105,325	29
-	(15)	A Star is Born	Warner Bros.	$73,030	-24%	810	$90	$214,770,430	160
-	(14)	Cold Pursuit	Lionsgate	$62,628	-36%	823	$76	$31,332,510	34
-	(-)	The Kid	Lionsgate	$62,543	-33%	268	$233	$729,131	6
-	(-)	Bohemian Rhapsody	20th Century Fox	$51,759	-25%	386	$134	$215,404,812	132
-	(-)	Glass	Universal	$46,920	-17%	386	$122	$110,274,905	55
-	(-)	Everybody Knows	Focus Features	$44,140	-15%	283	$156	$2,010,626	34
-	(-)	Ralph Breaks The Internet	Walt Disney	$28,412	-15%	209	$136	$200,598,299	113
-	(-)	The Favourite	Fox Searchlight	$27,856	-27%	278	$100	$33,905,471	111
-	(-)	Aquaman	Warner Bros.	$23,185	-23%	303	$77	$334,112,970	83
-	(-)	Mary Poppins Returns	Walt Disney	$21,856	-18%	215	$102	$171,546,723	85
-	(-)	They Shall Not Grow Old	Warner Bros.	$21,366	-9%	213	$100	$17,418,934	87
-	(-)	Climax	A24	$17,138	+6%	28	$612	$329,255	13
-	(-)	The Prodigy	Orion Pictures	$16,501	-21%	152	$109	$14,700,835	34
-	(-)	Total Dhamaal	FIP	$14,845	-55%	118	$126	$2,081,658	20
-	(-)	Gloria Bell	A24	$10,937	-7%	5	$2,187	$179,276	6
-	(-)	The Mule	Warner Bros.	$9,705	-24%	121	$80	$103,794,938	90
-	(-)	Vice	Annapurna Pictures	$8,161	-7%	91	$90	$47,755,908	79
-	(-)	If Beale Street Could Talk	Annapurna Pictures	$7,751	-33%	74	$105	$14,795,192	90
-	(-)	The Kid Who Would Be King	20th Century Fox	$7,568	-7%	95	$80	$16,735,889	48
-	(-)	Creed II	MGM	$1,092	+53%	20	$55	$115,712,662	113
-	(-)	Can You Ever Forgive Me?	Fox Searchlight	$1,036	+6%	9	$115	$8,803,089	146
-	(-)	Destroyer	Annapurna Pictures	$245	-54%	8	$31	$1,528,098	79

[narniadis]

I dont get the grousing about CMs wednesday drop. Most openers anymore outside of a holiday drop between 35-45% their first Wednesday. Been this way for a couple years now that Tuesdays have begun playing like another Sunday. 

 

But then this may just be the old guy here that is tired of facts and statistics being pushed aside in order to create a story. 

[Ororo Munroe]

7 hours ago, AndyK said:

So now its trolling to congratulate Marvel on playing a marketing blinder 

Hilarious that you think I was referring to you when I was just making a general comment about trolls. Hilarious, indeed. 

[terrestrial]

Wondering if he wrote this before o after the Endgame trailer drop

 

Quote

After last weekend saw the weekend box office top the same weekend in 2018 for the first time all year, this weekend looks as if it is going to be tight on that front. Disney and Marvel's Captain Marvel is certain to top the weekend yet again as it pushes over $260 million domestically in just ten days while Paramount debuts the animated feature Wonder Park, Lionsgate and CBS release Five Feet Apart and Focus releases the near-future thriller Captive State. Also looking at a top ten finish is Lionsgate's release of No Manches Frida 2, the sequel to the 2016 feature that debuted with over $3.6 million from just 362 locations.

At the top for a second weekend in a row will be Disney's release of Marvel's Captain Marvel, which debuted with a strong $153.4 million last weekend and has been pacing relatively similarly to The Hunger Games since release. That, plus the -56% average second weekend drop for films in the MCU, has us anticipating a second weekend drop around -55% for a three-day right around $69 million and a domestic cume nearing, if not topping, $265 million by the end of the weekend.

Captain Marvel has also grossed $362.6 million so far internationally for a worldwide gross topping $550 million as of today. This weekend it opens in its final overseas market, debuting in Japan this Friday. China remains the film's top grossing international market with over $104 million as of Wednesday, March 13.

.

other movies...

 

Quote

This weekend's forecast is directly below.

• Captain Marvel (4,310 theaters) - $69.0 M
• Wonder Park (3,838 theaters) - $13.0 M
• Five Feet Apart (2,803 theaters) - $10.5 M
• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (3,727 theaters) - $9.7 M
• Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral (2,350 theaters) - $6.5 M
• Captive State (2,547 theaters) - $4.5 M
• No Manches Frida 2 (472 theaters) - $3.4 M
• The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (2,046 theaters) - $2.1 M
• Alita: Battle Angel (1,696 theaters) - $1.8 M
• Green Book (1,303 theaters) - $1.5 M

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4494&p=.htm

[DeeCee]

@Napoleon @Life goes on @cdsacken have been threadbanned for 48 hours.

 

NIRD

 

 

[Legion Again]

My god, I’ve arrived at the site of a massacre.      

 

Anyway, I don’t seriously expect much impact from the trailer, but if we saw it be flat to +5% instead of the more standard -3% to -8% I think that would be quite nifty. Very excited for an update in the next few hours (CM dailies have been super dope in terms of how often we get info).