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[Jormungard]

20 minutes ago, Tom Swelling said:

I'll apologize in advance but let me get this off my chest, Hughes is a DC fanboy. He is full of crap. There is no way in hell the marketing budget was 40 million. According to him the production cost was 80 million and the marketing cost was 40 million. So 120 in total. The film has to make 240 to break even per Hughes. This is a lie. The budget was anywhere from 80 to 100 million as per multiple sources. The film had reshoots. And the marketing could not have been less than 50 million. They had to promote the film worldwide. So really we're looking at 275 to 300 million just to break even. See the tv commercial budget below. 21 million just for tv. They still had to cut trailers, print posters, billboards, etc. Shazam will make a profit but it won't be a runaway success and that fills my heart with joy. 

 

https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/shazam-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1203178303/

 

 

On 3/30/2019 at 3:41 PM, Tom Swelling said:

Your statement is not true but nice contribution there. 

 

[La Binoche]

I enjoyed Pet Sem despite its flaws. It's rare for studio horror to go this dark

[Barnack]

5 hours ago, LordNox said:

According to Mark Hughes from forbes from an article today, Shazam only had a marketing budget of 40M:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2019/04/07/shazam-opens-to-thunderous-159-million-with-open-road-ahead/

 

How reliable are forbes when it comes to such figures?

 

Forbes is not reliable at all about movie entertainment stuff figures, when it is Forbes they tend to write it small somewhere those are just gross estimate (highest paid athlete, stars, etc...), when it is collaborator I would imagine near 0 reliable, my bet no one at Forbes did any work on a collaborator blog post and said collaborator:

 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/markwhughes

 

Never worked either in movies production/distribution (or movies at all).

 

No more than $40M in marketing for a big wide world release seem quite impossible, will probably end up spending more than that in just one country.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by Barnack

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Tom Swelling said:

I'll apologize in advance but let me get this off my chest, Hughes is a DC fanboy. He is full of crap. There is no way in hell the marketing budget was 40 million. According to him the production cost was 80 million and the marketing cost was 40 million. So 120 in total. The film has to make 240 to break even per Hughes. This is a lie. The budget was anywhere from 80 to 100 million as per multiple sources. The film had reshoots. And the marketing could not have been less than 50 million. They had to promote the film worldwide. So really we're looking at 275 to 300 million just to break even. See the tv commercial budget below. 21 million just for tv. They still had to cut trailers, print posters, billboards, etc. Shazam will make a profit but it won't be a runaway success and that fills my heart with joy. 

 

https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/shazam-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1203178303/

 

 

I imagine new here (looking at the post count), welcome to the box office theory message board.

 

He is indeed so much of a fanboy that he teach DC screenwriting seminar according to is linked page.

 

Marketing could not have been much less than 80m for such a movie with worldwide ambitions could end up around 90m, I really doubt a mid budget movie like that need to make 300m just to break even, specially how domestic heavy it is playing.

 

Shazam was probably around the cost of say Grown Ups 2 for a comedy in that price range (that had a 93.5m net budget and a 70m marketing budget), that made 62m in profit with a 247m box office run and started to break even between 165m and 180m.

 

At 80m that the first grown up movie budget, that The Magnificent Seven / Jack Reacher 2 a bit higher than 22 Jump Street, do you think those movies were greenligth with the studio thinking we need to make 400m+ for them to be good investment because at 290m they were still maybe loosing them money ? 

 

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by Barnack

[mulderfox]

47 minutes ago, Tom Swelling said:

I'll apologize in advance but let me get this off my chest, Hughes is a DC fanboy. He is full of crap. There is no way in hell the marketing budget was 40 million. According to him the production cost was 80 million and the marketing cost was 40 million. So 120 in total. The film has to make 240 to break even per Hughes. This is a lie. The budget was anywhere from 80 to 100 million as per multiple sources. The film had reshoots. And the marketing could not have been less than 50 million. They had to promote the film worldwide. So really we're looking at 275 to 300 million just to break even. See the tv commercial budget below. 21 million just for tv. They still had to cut trailers, print posters, billboards, etc. Shazam will make a profit but it won't be a runaway success and that fills my heart with joy. 

 

https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/shazam-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1203178303/

 

Sure Tom Swelling we believe you. Especially one that has a grudge against this movie.

[Blaze Heatnix]

If this movie has a 80 million budget, I presume they spent at least the same number for promotion/marketing.

 

So, real budget would be 160 million. It needs 320 million worldwide to break even. The profit will be small, but it'll exist.

 

 

[Blaze Heatnix]

1 hour ago, Tom Swelling said:

I'll apologize in advance but let me get this off my chest, Hughes is a DC fanboy. He is full of crap. There is no way in hell the marketing budget was 40 million. According to him the production cost was 80 million and the marketing cost was 40 million. So 120 in total. The film has to make 240 to break even per Hughes. This is a lie. The budget was anywhere from 80 to 100 million as per multiple sources. The film had reshoots. And the marketing could not have been less than 50 million. They had to promote the film worldwide. So really we're looking at 275 to 300 million just to break even. See the tv commercial budget below. 21 million just for tv. They still had to cut trailers, print posters, billboards, etc. Shazam will make a profit but it won't be a runaway success and that fills my heart with joy. 

 

https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/shazam-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1203178303/

 

 

What do you have against this movie? Did you create an account just to say it fills your heart with joy if it doesn't make a ton of money?

 

You should have a sad life. Well, it's your opinion anyway. Movie was great. Hopefully you find something that you enjoy.

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

If this movie has a 80 million budget, I presume they spent at least the same number for promotion/marketing.

 

So, real budget would be 160 million. It needs 320 million worldwide to break even. The profit will be small, but it'll exist.

 

The Equalizer budget with participation bonus was about 79-80m, they spent around 80m on it's world release not counting the future windows marketing spending. A 160M type of real budget.

 

It made 192m WW or 60% of Shazam break even point estimate, not only did it got a sequel but one with a larger budget.

 

80m + 80 WW P&A would be quite a small budget for a movie opening like this.

[Tom Swelling]

1 hour ago, Jormungard said:

 

 

Well done. You get a cookie. 

[Blaze Heatnix]

12 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

The Equalizer budget with participation bonus was about 79-80m, they spent around 80m on it's world release not counting the future windows marketing spending. A 160M type of real budget.

 

It made 192m WW or 60% of Shazam break even point estimate, not only did it got a sequel but one with a larger budget.

 

80m + 80 WW P&A would be quite a small budget for a movie opening like this.

 

So, how much does Shazam need to do, in order to get a profit?

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

So, how much does Shazam need to do, in order to get a profit?

 

That is almost impossible to say, we do not know Shazam production budget, I do not know how Johnson Seven buck / New Line / Peter Safran deal look like on this.

 

For WB, could be around 155m, could be around 235m.

 

[mulderfox]

4 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

So, how much does Shazam need to do, in order to get a profit?

he just said above

Quote

Shazam was probably around the cost of say Grown Ups 2 for a comedy in that price range (that had a 93.5m net budget and a 70m marketing budget), that made 62m in profit with a 247m box office run and started to break even between 165m and 180m.

 

[Blaze Heatnix]

2 minutes ago, mulderfox said:

he just said above

 

He isn't sure about it, though, considering his latest reply. I believe the numbers will end up being close to what Barnack said, though.

[Neucentro]

Isn't there a rule of thumb that the breakeven point for a movie is when global sales reaches roughly 3 times the production cost?

[excel1]

Mark Hughes is a huge DC fanboy, that's how you know he's smart and legit. 🤓

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Mark Hughes is a superhero fanboy in general. One time he said Civil War may have a chance at $2 Billion.

[LexJoker]

7 hours ago, LordNox said:

According to Mark Hughes from forbes from an article today, Shazam only had a marketing budget of 40M:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2019/04/07/shazam-opens-to-thunderous-159-million-with-open-road-ahead/

 

How reliable are forbes when it comes to such figures?

Not surprising. It had zero marketing in my country.

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

Isn't there a rule of thumb that the breakeven point for a movie is when global sales reaches roughly 3 times the production cost?

The rules of thumb tended to be

 

around 2006: 2 time your production cost, movie is a nice success, for an extreme example of that era:

 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=gridirongang.htm

Gridiron Gang
Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$38,432,823	92.7%
+ Foreign:	$3,048,028	7.3%
= Worldwide:	$41,480,851

 

Production Budget: $32.95 million, with a 50m marketing budget

 

Sony made money on that (almost 3 thousand bucks) and the third party partners lost only 7m

 

Post DVD crash: 2009-2014, 2 time (production budget + participation bonus) you usually broke even.

 

But it depend a lot of the markets, the budget range, a little bit on the genre, in recent year's who knows but looking at 2017 movie release projection:

 

A movie with a 30m budget and a 70m release budget like Clooney / Roberts Money Monster can need to make 2.35 it's budget while a, a 50m movie with a 100m release cost could need to make 2.76 time the budget, while a 200m movie with a 165m release cost can need to make only 2 time it's budget.

[HouseOfTheSun]

Post theatrical run revenues are clouded nowadays and will get even worse (even impossible) with Disney Plus, WarnerFlix, etc coming out. How do you possibly determine how much value a movie brings a streaming service. I 

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Post theatrical run revenues are clouded nowadays and will get even worse (even impossible) with Disney Plus, WarnerFlix, etc coming out. How do you possibly determine how much value a movie brings a streaming service. I 

 

That a good question, I imagine not that different than when HBO play a movie made by WB or ABC a movie made by Disney, the TV segment of the company will give the movie production company a certain amount that is some "market fare value" (maybe what would it have got from Netflix at the starting year's) ?